DS0816
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,171
|
 |
« on: June 29, 2016, 04:22:22 PM » |
|
Barack Obama's re-election, in 2012, had him carry New York by +28.
If Hillary Clinton wins by a stronger national margin, and if it really moves to +10 (or better), then there will be "Blue Firewall" states which will also increase Democratic support. But they will start with the Blue Firewall states which need to get past what will eventually be Hillary Clinton's national margin.
There is a suggestive ceiling from Blue Firewall states which had Democratic tilts of +15 or better (compared to Barack Obama's re-election by nearly +4). In 2012 New York, Obama performed +24 above his national margin. I would not necessarily expect Hillary Clinton to do that. But it would be reasonable if she did. If she won nationally by, say, +11 to +13, she may end up carrying her and Donald Trump's home state by +33. (Ditto states like California, Maryland, and Massachusetts.)
|
