Rasmussen: Jack Carter(D) cuts into John Ensign's(R) lead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-07-31

Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ensign is the favorite to win but he hasn't sewn up the race yet. We have to wait for more polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But this race still lean towards the republicans until Carter can get within 5 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race seems eerie like the VA race. It first stated off as competetive, like Webb getting to within 7 points and it ended up being noncompetetive. It all depends on the poll sample. Until the Dems put this race as a competetive race on their website, which they only have AZ and TN and the other 5 vulnerable republicans, I am not going to take this race seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

However, I am not changing my map until congressional quarter, npr, and Cook has it out of republican favored to lean republican. In other words likely republican.

Also, I will put it to you this way: AZ is tougher than TN, VA is tougher than WA, and NV is tougher than NEB.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is trending to the left, but not fast enough to get Ensign out of office. The state is a military state and has a lot of vets and they will be proudly to have Ensign back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But Bush changed NV, from a tossup blue to lean tossup red. Reno which voted for Dems in the past, has steadily trended red since 2000. Believe I thought this race over and over, and Ensign who is endorsed by the firefighters union in NV is not going to lose.

Believe me I want Jack Carter to win but this poll reminds me of the TN poll that had it a 2 point race, the AZ poll that had it 7 point race and the VA poll that had it a 7 point race. Until these races are neck and neck consistantly, I am not going to take them seriously. Anyway Cook came out with the new political report and has this solid republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think with the Dems not fielding a strong enough challenger to field against Gibbons, eventhough Gibson would have an easier time than Titus and she is going to win the primary, he is going to carry Ensign over the top. But like you said it is going to be by a slimer margin maybe a 48-32% not by 20 points. But it is going to be more than 10.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There was no way that Carter was going to win. His father didn't even win NV. Also, Carter is losing in the cash advantage very heavily.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's face it, Carter has less of a chance as Ford or Webb or Pederson do.  He will not win.  But he can make Ensign campaign. The new approval ratings came out for Allen, and Ensign the most difficult races for the Dems to win, and they are above 50%.