Is the Senate lost for a generation for the Dems?

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Midterms tend to be bad for the presidents party, incumbents can have strong ticket splitting, etc.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

This is not the democrats best-case scenario.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Ten potential Democratic pickups in 2022? Let's see...

Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia

Those are the only really obvious ones I see, and none of them are guaranteed. I guess there's Iowa and Ohio as well. Beyond that we're basically just naming random states.

AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, PA, and WI. OH if Portman retires, is primaries out, or runs for Governor against a Democratic Governor. AK if Murkowski retires, is primaried out, or runs for Governor. IN/MO if an extremist wins the primary.

MO could flip without. It was within 3 points this year, and if trump wins reelection it will be unlikely that 2022 is worse for democrats then this year. Now if a democrat narrowly wins 2020.....

Hell, KT might flip in a big wave, Grey significantly(20 points) over-performed Clinton during a red wave. It doesn't look likely at this point, but we don't actually have any evidence that the hard R trend in local KT/WV/TN elections will stay during a bad republican midterm. KT/WV should get at least a little investment in 2018, and attempts to craft an effective message, just to see if it works. If it fails, not that much money was lost. If it succeeds, it succeeds, and gives republicans one hell of a time.