PA-PPP: Clinton 41 Trump 40 Johnson 6

[NOVA Green]

If we're talking about blue collar swing voters then why not just call them "blue collar swing voters" instead if this insanely moronic and inaccurate term?

Because they are the same profile of voter up North that haven't assimilated into the Republican Party and haven't really voted Republican in that regard since Reagan in 1984 or Bush (on Reagan's goodwill) in 1988? The term fits if counties like Luzerne flip to the Republican side in this election.

Why is Luzerne County, which at most gave Reagan 53.5% of the vote which was significantly below his national numbers so much of a Reagan Democrat stronghold but Montgomery county which gave Reagan 64.2% of the vote not one?

The term doesn't fit because the people of the profile you're describing about for the most part did not vote for Reagan. The people who did vote for Reagan but then voted Democratic afterwards were not like older blue collar socially conservative people AT ALL, and they don't make up any actual voter bloc today.

Hell Ford actually did better in comparison to his national numbers in Luzerne County in 1976 than Reagan did in 1984. So did George HW Bush in 1988. There's no evidence Reagan had any type of special appeal or personal following in Luzerne County.

Gotta agree with BRTD on this one.... there are many working-class Anglo counties like Coos and Columbia Oregon (FDR Dem counties) that voted against Reagon in '84, as well as blue-collar mill counties in Oregon (Douglas and Linn) that narrowly voted R in '88  (But <PVI) .


Reality is that "Reagan Democrats" in Oregon were actually predominately suburban independent/ Republican leaners, that flirted with Reagan for an election or two, while unfortunately, middle-class voters bought into the crap, while "Working Class Heroes" rejected the agenda, and gradually shifted towards the Republican Party after 2000, because the Democratic Party had become a party of sell-outs since NAFTA, and it wasn't thtat they left the party, it was because the party left them.

Meanwhile, Middle-Class suburbanites and upper-middle-class voters swung heavily toward Reagan in '80 and '84 and the abandoned the Republican Party forever in Oregon in '88 and never looked back,

[NOVA Green]

You do realize that Walter Mondale was an excellent candidate for the stereotypical blue collar whites? Mondale was the last strand of the old New Deal coalition that put unions and the working man first. Take a look at how Mondale actually won huge swaths of SW PA, the KY and WV coal areas while getting blown out nationally by 18 points. Elections then were much more class based, if you were a working man in a union you voted Democrat. Your boss voted Republican.

Totally agreed....

One item to note about SW PA, is that the destruction of the US Steel Industry at the hands of unfair trade practices, caused a huge out-migration of population from that region, many of whom never returned and found jobs and new lives in other parts of the state/region and country.

"And the Wolf Finally Came: The Decline and Fall of the American Steel Industry" is an excellent and well researched book that is pretty much a classic when it comes to this part of the country and the '70s and '80s.

There are no real magical Reagan Democrats that will swing PA to the Republican column this year. Likely there will be a medium swing towards Trump in rural parts of SW PA and Luzerene, from Obama '08 and/or '12 voters, but will be offset by significant under-performance in the suburbs of Philly and likely Pittsburgh (Allegheny) as well.