Mexico 2006

[jaichind]

I would tend to agree with AG.  But GDP/capita by PPP standards is about $41,000 for USA, $10,000 for Mexico, and $4200 for Guatemala.  The USA-Mexico gap is far greater than the Mexico-Guatemala Gap.  At $6500 for Mainland China, Mexico is not that much richer than Mainland China in terms of GDP/capita in PPP terms.  While Mexico City is advanced in some ways, Shanghai is more advanced than Mexico city.  Furthermore, crime is a major problem in urban Mexico, especially Mexico City.  The wealthy shop in fancy malls in Mexico City but are too scared to get out of their cars en route to the malls from their houses.  All rich people need an army of bodyguards.
While food is cheap in Mexico, many products that the middle class needs, like a color TV, DVD players and so on are often more expensive than USA.   

[jaichind]

If I were ALMO I would want to be slightly behind Calderón in the polls right before the election.  This way on the day of the election, PRI and Patricia Mercado supporters would be forced to vote ALMO to stop PAN, which most of them are more hostile to than PRD. 

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll

Prez

ALMO        35
Calderon   32
Madrazo    28

Congress        House           Senate
 
PRI-PVEM      165-189          43-53
PAN               149-176          36-46
PRD-PT          140-164          32-42
Rest                  5-  12            1-  3


Reforma poll

Prez
ALMO            37
Calderon      35
Madrazo       23


Conclusion: Prez race neck to neck with slight ALMO advantage.  PRI will most likely have the most seats in Congress but has zero chance of winning the Prez seat.  Result, another six years of nothing happening.
Mexico Blosa down from 22000 to below 17000 since May reflects this reality in addition to recent inflation jitters.

[jaichind]

Cárdenas, the son of President Lázaro Cárdenas, who nationalised
oil in 1938 and who was, probably, deprived of the presidency in 1988 by a
computer failure during the vote counting, has yet to endorse any candidate for this election. Ten days ago, Cárdenas met Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is a prominent member of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática, which Cárdenas founded, but did not endorse him. His meeting with Mercado "to exchange points of view" is a warning to López Obrador that he should not count on Cárdenas's support in the final weeks of the election.  Cárdenas added, mischievously, that he had met most of the candidates in the past few days. As the election reaches its climax, both Mercado and López Obrador are likely to appeal again to Cárdenas for his endorsement, or, at least, the maintenance of his current position of election bystander.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  And if ALMO wins he will then try take over the rest of PRI.  If that works he could then kick out Cardenas and then even try to change the constitution to allow for multiple terms and turn PRD into ALMO party.

[jaichind]

There are news that PAN are diverting funds from Congressional races into the Prez race in the form of more TV ads.  I guess they are getting desperate but still think that the race is still winnable.  The AMLO camp seems to be holding back thinking that everyone is watching the World Cup anyway so what is the point of TV ads. 

[jaichind]

Mexican law seems to disallow the release of polls the last week before the election.  This law makes the election more unpredictable since tactical voters are not given accurate information to base their tactical voting on.  Look for surprise endorcements in the last few days before the election to convince the PRI tactical voter one way or another about if PRI is really out of the running and that they should shift to AMLO.  Recent events in Oaxaca is also interesting where a PRI civil war is going between the PRI government there and the PRI rebel faction Gordillo supported teachers union.  Of course this entire conflict might be staged to give the PRI an excuse to not have an election and then claim the entire 2006 Prez election should not count.

[jaichind]

AMLO have reasons to complain.  Lets take a look at Guerrero which went for AMLO 51%, and 17% for Calderon.  But turnout in this PRD stronghold is an unusually low 47% when the national turnout was 59%. 

[jaichind]

I guess in an EC style system PAN wins since the PRD vote are concentraded in the Greater Mexico City area where they have massive leads.

[jaichind]

with 62.6 of votes counted

AMLO       37.1%
Calderon  34.5%