Mexico 2006

[ag]

Why would those under 30 support the most conservative candidate? Thats unusual. So much for youthful idealism.........

PAN is the socially conservative party, they are like the Bible Belt Republicans, so I hope Calderon loses.

Precisely because of the youthful idealism: the left in Mexico is the old and tired officialist ideology, it was in total control since the 1920s, and the official retoric remained leftist until the PRI defeat (and, in many respects remains so even now). PAN is relatively fresh, modern, strongly appealing to youth, etc. Calderon is the youngest candidate and he tries a lot to appeal to the young. Also, it is related to education: the young are much more likely to have finished high school and to have some college, and the more educated tend to support PAN and Calderon (look in the same poll - half of those with college degrees do).

As for social conservatism, it is also not as straightforward, as you pretend. A lot of the Mexico's left (both PRI and PRD) would be socially quite at home in the Republican party (though not for religious reasons), while a lot of the right is not that conservative on other issues (such as gay rights).  Think of it: abortion has always been banned by the left in Mexico, long before PAN had any chance to do anything.

Today's Reforma has answers to a social issues questionnaire filled by the candidates for the Mexico City mayoralty. The PRI candidate refused to answer most of the questions, saying they are too complicated to give a short answer. But the PAN and PRD candidates did answer. They are not as distinct as you might believe (admittedly, these are not Calderon and Lopez Obrador - but then Lopez Obrador has been entirely silent on most social issues in your understanding of what these are). It doesn't really matter much, since an empty chair with the innitials PRD emblasoned on it would still win the city election in a landslide, but here is a sample (somewhat abridged):

1. Are you in favor of assisted suicide?

Sodi (PAN) Yes, in cases close to brain death, no otherwise.
Ebrard (PRD) Every individual has a right to a dignified life and dignified death.

2. If the city council adopts an assisted suicide law, would you sign it or veto it?
Sodi (PAN) I won't veto it.
Ebrard (PRD) It's a complicated question that has to be considered in all dimensions by the experts, and Mexico is only beginning to explore this.

3. Would you propose a bill to expand the conditions under which abortion is not penalized in the Federal District <In Mexico aborition is always a crime, but states and Mexico City can choose to set the maximal punishment for it at no punishment at all, in various cases, which Mexico City has done, though in a way that would leave many US social conservatives happy - ag>.

Sodi (PAN) No.
Ebrard (PRD). The city legislation is already one of the most advanced in the country. Abortion is not punished in six cases: rape, non-consensual artificial insemination, genetic defects, grave threat to health, danger of mother's death and <some other case which I can't understand, since it looks like a legal formula: "causas imprudenciales y culposas" - ag>.
Paredes (PRI) Yes.

4. If the city council adopts a law expanding the reasons for not punishing abortion, would you sign it or veto it?
Sodi (PAN) I won't veto it.
Ebrard (PRD) Oaxaca and Yucatan <by the way, Yucatan is governed by PAN - ag> don't punish abortion if it is justified by the socio-economic condition of the mother. This could be analyzed.
 
5. Are you in favor or against the Civil Union law?
Sodi (PAN) I am in favor, and the issue should be distinct from the questions of sexual preference. It could also be a union between a man and a woman who are not married.
Ebrard (PRD) In the spirit of these reforms it is in terms of the democratic normality to recongnize various forms of co-habitation that are not conjugal.

6. Are you in favor or against the same-sex marriage?
Sodi (PAN). Well, I wouldn't recognize this as marriage, but if a same-sex couple lives together, I would respect it exactly as I would an opposite-sex couple.
Ebrard (PRD)  This type of legislation has as its goal to  recognize unions that so far have no legal recognition. But these would not be equivalent to marriage.

7. Should the death penalty ever be applied in the Federal District?(combination of answers to two related questions: death penalty against drug-related crime, and death penalty in general)
Sodi (PAN) I am against death penalty. It doesn't solve anything. Developed countries don't have death penalty - the only exception is the US, but in this dimension it is underdeveloped. I think the best way of fighting delinquency is not with more penalties, but by helping the youth.
Ebrard (PRD) I am not in favor of death penalty. The world tendency has been towards elimination of death penalty. We should make crime-fighting and justice system more efficient instead.
Paredes (PRI) On March 17 2005 a constitutional ammendment prohibiting death penalty has been promulgated. In our constitutional framework death penalty is impossible. <until 2005 death penalty was still technically on books for some military crimes, but hadn't been applied in decades - ag>

[Cubby]

And here I am thinking Obrador and the PRD are like Howard Dean and the liberals! Its not a simple left/right divide like we have up here.

I'm glad to hear that PAN is more moderate than I assumed.

 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Much as I want Obrador to win, if he does with 35% it'd be quite a cloud over him. Mexico needs to add a run off. How would a straight Obrador vs. Calderon race go?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And here I am thinking Obrador and the PRD are like Howard Dean and the liberals! Its not a simple left/right divide like we have up here.

I'm glad to hear that PAN is more moderate than I assumed.

You're a bit too used to American politics then, heh.

While Obrador is somewhat similar to Dean is his campaigning style, as ag has explained before, the PRD is not some type of MoveOn insurgent party. Rather the PRD is effectively what the PRI was like for the first years of its existance, under Mexico's two party system, with PRI on the left and PAN on the right. Of course the PRI's massive political machine and grib on the country meant it won pretty much every election. The PRI moved toward more free market policies in the 70s, and then the PRD split off them as a result. The PRD aren't new Howard Dean types but rather mostly the old guard trying to get back into power. I still support them of course.

[Cubby]

And here I am thinking Obrador and the PRD are like Howard Dean and the liberals! Its not a simple left/right divide like we have up here.

I'm glad to hear that PAN is more moderate than I assumed.

You're a bit too used to American politics then, heh.

While Obrador is somewhat similar to Dean is his campaigning style, as ag has explained before, the PRD is not some type of MoveOn insurgent party. Rather the PRD is effectively what the PRI was like for the first years of its existance, under Mexico's two party system, with PRI on the left and PAN on the right. Of course the PRI's massive political machine and grib on the country meant it won pretty much every election. The PRI moved toward more free market policies in the 70s, and then the PRD split off them as a result. The PRD aren't new Howard Dean types but rather mostly the old guard trying to get back into power. I still support them of course.

Well I'm disapointed that PRD isn't as socially liberal as I thought, but I still support them too.

[ag]

And here I am thinking Obrador and the PRD are like Howard Dean and the liberals! Its not a simple left/right divide like we have up here.

I'm glad to hear that PAN is more moderate than I assumed.

 The PRI moved toward more free market policies in the 70s, and then the PRD split off them as a result.

Actually, in the 70s PRI was at its leftiest. It culminated with the bank nationalisation in 1982 under President Lopez Portillo. After the 1982 economic collapse, the new president de la Madrid moved cautiously towards the markets. While the move was very cautious (de la Madrid was among the most boring and cautious politicians in history), it provoked the split of the left wing of PRI under Cuahutemoc Cardenas and the formation of the PRD by these rebels and older ultra-left minor parties. Actually, until 1988 the split wasn't final, the PRI rebels formed a "Democratic Current" withing the party instead. But Cardenas ran for presidency against the de la Madrid's chosen successor Salinas, and after the voting falsification in Salinas's favor that year the split became irreconsilable and the PRD was formed.

Interestingly enough, even after the 1988 most of the PRI left wing stayed loyal to the party. Manuel Bartlett, who has just endorsed Lopez Obrador, was the Interior Secretary who did the voting falsification then (despite his disappointment at not having himself been chosen by de la Madrid as the successor), his right-hand man Camacho Solis, who has been coordinating Lopez Obrador campaign in the North of the country, remained a key player for much of the Salinas administration, and had reasonable hopes of being chosen to succeed Salinas (he never forgave being overlooked).

Of course, the Salinas government, and, especially, the consequent Zedillo administration really effected the pro-market turn of the party, and Zedillo, in addition, enacted the political reforms that made Mexico a real democracy.  So, a moderate turn from the left dates only to the mid 1980s, and the real pro-market reforms didn't start till around 1990, while the leftis retoric was never abandoned at all (even Zedillo called the union bosses "comrades").

[ag]

Much as I want Obrador to win, if he does with 35% it'd be quite a cloud over him. Mexico needs to add a run off. How would a straight Obrador vs. Calderon race go?

Most of the PRI vote-rigging machine would seamlessly join PRD (they aren't that much different). PAN's ceiling is around 40%. Unless the turnout were low (ie, unless the PRI machine just disintegrated and its subjects were to just stay home), PAN could never win, except by doing the Fox trick: nominating a popular outsider. A party insider, like Calderon, would not have been the nominee.

[ag]

And here I am thinking Obrador and the PRD are like Howard Dean and the liberals! Its not a simple left/right divide like we have up here.

I'm glad to hear that PAN is more moderate than I assumed.

You're a bit too used to American politics then, heh.

While Obrador is somewhat similar to Dean is his campaigning style, as ag has explained before, the PRD is not some type of MoveOn insurgent party. Rather the PRD is effectively what the PRI was like for the first years of its existance, under Mexico's two party system, with PRI on the left and PAN on the right. Of course the PRI's massive political machine and grib on the country meant it won pretty much every election. The PRI moved toward more free market policies in the 70s, and then the PRD split off them as a result. The PRD aren't new Howard Dean types but rather mostly the old guard trying to get back into power. I still support them of course.

Well I'm disapointed that PRD isn't as socially liberal as I thought, but I still support them too.

Why?

[ag]

Given the absence of polls till the election this might be complete bull, but there seem to be some indirect signs that even Madrazo shouldn't yet be counted out (assuming newspapers/commentators know something about some unofficial polling, this might explain the suddenly emerging deference to the PRI candidate). Rumors, rumors, rumors, with no basis in fact, but... Being a pessimist I am, I wouldn't discard even the possibility of Calderon coming third. It's going to be a difficult night.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

TradeSports prices:

Obrador 58.2
Madrazo 4.2
Calderon 37.0

[minionofmidas]

TradeSports prices:

Obrador 58.2
Madrazo 4.2
Calderon 37.0

Goes to show the PRI partisans haven't discovered TradeSports yet. Otherwise Madrazo's share would be up with the Dems' share of taking back the Senate.

[minionofmidas]

And here I am thinking Obrador and the PRD are like Howard Dean and the liberals! Its not a simple left/right divide like we have up here.

I'm glad to hear that PAN is more moderate than I assumed.

 

Lol.

Anyone thinking the US has a "simple left/right divide" really has a lot to learn, you know that?

Probably no country in the world has one, but the US' gotta be one of the most complex splits around anywhere...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Election's tommorow.

How well would Fox had done if he was able to run for releection. Would he do better or wose than Calderon?

Madrazo's at 7 now btw.

[ag]

How well would Fox had done if he was able to run for releection. Would he do better or wose than Calderon?

Hard to say - the very idea of a reelection is so alien here. I guess, if this were an accepted practice (and not just something newly allowed), he'd do a lot better: he is generally quite popular, he has a much better "common touch" and he is not merely a "party man", having originally come from outside PAN (Calderon's parents were among PAN's founders).

[ag]

It is today.

The polls open 8AM and close 6 PM local time accross Mexico. Most of the country is on the Central Time, but Nayarit, Sonora, Sinaloa and Baja California Sur are on the Mountain Time, and Baja California is actually on the Pacific Time. Consequently, no exit polls, etc., will be allowed until 8 PM Central Time (6 PM Pacific Time, when polls in Baja California close).  The preliminary results service (PREP) will start reporting at 8 PM Central Time tomorrow and continue reporting for 24 hours. There will also be an "early count" of a sample of precincts, that, unless the race is very close, should deliver the official projection of the winner by 11 PM Central Time tomorrow. It has been decided that all official announcements will be made by the independent Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) - neither the President, nor the candidates are supposed to declare anything until the IFE head Ugalde does.

Lopez Obrador will, unfortunately, win. Still even 6 months ago nobody expected Calderon making it a race, and he did, at least for a month or two. Congressional and local races should be interesting - most likely, the Congress will be split into equal thirds, with at least one of the new minor parties crossing the 2% threshold to get its share as well .

There are several gobernatorial elections also today. These are in the states of Jalisco, Guanajuato and Morelos (all PAN-controlled) and in Mexico City (PRD-controlled).  A few other states have legislative and/or municipal polls as well.  PRD will easily retain Mexico City, and PAN should hold Guanajuato and Morelos (in the latter state, though, with barely 40% of the vote against the split opposition). In Jalisco it is a very close race between PAN and PRI.

It would be interesting to see the turnout. It is believed that out of 71.7 million registered voters 71.3 million actually have their electoral IDs valid, allowing them to vote. Only about 60 thousands postal ballots have been distributed abroad (about 40 thousand of them have arrived by Friday, a day before the deadline), so there won't be significant voting from the US. Within Mexico, voters can vote for President and the PR Senate list anywhere in the country (there are special polling booths set up for such voters), though they have to be within their state to vote for the local Senator, within their geographic region to vote for the PR House representation, and within their congressional district to vote for their House member.

[© tweed]

Calderon has taken the lead on TradeSports, his last transaction was at 58.0.  Obrador at 46.5, Madrazo at 5... take it for what its worth.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Calderon has taken the lead on TradeSports, his last transaction was at 58.0.  Obrador at 46.5, Madrazo at 5... take it for what its worth.

Probably due to people who aren't sure enough of an Obrador win and bought stock earlier and figure now's the time to sell. TradeSports prices can be misleading, since to win you don't need to bet on the right choice, just have that choice go for a higher price later than what you bought it for.

[ag]

Very pleasant voting today. Everything seems to be efficiently organized - zillions of polling stations, so no visible lines of more than 10 or 20 people. In my part of my neighborhood there were more than 500 or 600 registered voters, so the polling station actually had two booths each for the federal and the city election. Another part of the same smallish neighborhood got a separate polling station nearby. The entire process from entering to leaving (picking up the three federal ballots, marking them and depositing them into the three color-coded boxes, having the voter ID marked and the thumb colored with indelible ink, and then repeating the process for the three local ballots) took at most 20 minutes. Officials at each booth had a typographically produced voter list with names and photographs of every single voter - quite impressive. Very clean ballot designs, especially the city ones - any illiterate could figure them out. The federal presidential ballot had a place for right-ins.

News so far seems to be of general efficiency as well. 99.5% of the booths were opened within a few hours of the starting time (given the number of the booths in a huge country this is very impressive). So far, there are reports of two murders in the state of Guerrero (PRD-governed) and 2 reports of stealing and destroying of ballot batches (200 ballots per batch), one from Mexico State and one from Jalisco.  There seems to be a ballot shortage at the special booths at the Mexico City International Airport that have been set up for those who are travelling on the electon date (I guess, they underestimated voters' mobility). PRI, PRD and PVEM have confirmed their belief that the vote is proceding cleanly. The worst incident so far seems to be in one of the smaller towns in Oaxaca state, where striking teachers (there has been a major strike going on for the last month) have occupied the police precinct, claiming that pro-PRI vote falsification was happening there.  Overall, things seem to be orderly. 

There is about an hour more left for voting in most of the country, though the 5 states in other time zones will continue voting for another hour or two after that. In my part of Mexico City it has just started raining hard (this is the normal time for a rain in this season, and most people take that into account when planning things), so I am pretty sure the turnout here is not going to grow much from this point on, whatever it is now.

[ag]

Tradesports seems to be volatile. Latest numbers:

Lopez Obrador: bid 45.5, offer 57.8, last transaction 45.9
Calderon bid 47.5, offer 48.5, last transaction 48.0
Madrazo bid 1.6, offer 4.8, last transaction 1.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That confirms my suspicion that the upswing for Madrazo wasn't people expecting him to win but figured he'd rise, allowing them to sell their shares at a higher price. They're all selling now.

[ag]

The voting in Mexico City is over and Tradesports is going nuts.

This is the latest

Lopez Obrador: bid 30.0, offer 46.1, last transaction 44.0
Calderon bid 55.5, offer 65.0, last transaction 55.7
Madrazo bid 0.3, offer 4.4, last transaction 0.3

Just to make it clear: I still think Lopez is winning, and fairly comfortably at that.

[ag]

Exit polls for Mexico City Mayor are out. No surprises here.

Televisa-Mitofsky
Ebrard (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 52%
Sodi (PAN) 25%
Paredes (PRI-PVEM) 20%

TV Azteca
Ebrard (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 52%
Sodi (PAN) 28%
Paredes (PRI-PVEM) 17%
Cinta (Panal) 2%
Jimenez-Pons (Alternativa) 1%

[ag]

Exit Polls for Morelos Governorship show it is very close, as predicted.

TV Azteca

Adame (PAN) 38%
Martinez (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 32%
Sanchez (PRI-PVEM) 27%

[ag]

Guanajuato is, as predicted, safe PAN hold:

Televisa-Mitofsky

Oliva (PAN) 59%
Chico (PRI-PVEM) 25%
Garcia (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 15%

TV Azteca
Oliva (PAN) 64%
Chico (PRI-PVEM) 24%
Garcia (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 12%

[ag]

Jalisco looks like PAN hold, but it is close

Televisa/Mitofsky

Gonzalez (PAN) 46%
Zamora (PRI-PVEM) 40%
Ibarra (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 11%

TV Azteca

Gonzalez (PAN) 46%
Zamora (PRI-PVEM) 41%
Ibarra (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 9%