Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/Tony4WI/status/1006936215663374336

Evers briefly unveiled this about 5 days ago to not much fanfare. Thoughts anyone?

I know I'm late to the party here but the last two points are bad. Term limits are a silly, unnecessary  populist (and anti-intellectual) idea and reducing legislator salaries is a good way to ensure that only people who are already wealthy can run for office. Super disappointed that Evers would support either of these ideas.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Woof at those finance numbers for Soglin and Vinehout... were these two candidates ever as promising as Atlas sold them to be? Go back a number of pages and you'll see discussion of this race as being a dead heat between Vinehout and Evers with Soglin standing on the outside looking in.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

So, assuming Evers gets the nom, what does turnout look like in a hypothetical campaign where he pays minimal attention to Milwaukee/Madison? I'd guess Democrats are energized enough to turn out there anyway but is there any risk to not focusing campaign efforts there?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

So what’s left, the big Milwaukee votes, two precincts in New Berlin, City of LaCrosse and some rural Calumet?

Plus four precincts in Monroe County (58-40 Walker), six in Price (62-34 Walker) and one in Waupaca (61-35).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Not sure what reported but 98% in and Evers back on top by 122 votes.

La Crosse...but significant GOP areas (Calumet, Manitowoc, and Price Counties, New Berlin) still out...

There are still 12 / 55 precincts out of La Crosse

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

That's mildly disappointing. What's the breakdown of in state-out of state students at UW? I've heard anecdotally that lots of D voters in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. are more conservative than the national average for their age range.

In retrospect I would have loved to have done a PhD in Madison. I'm keeping it in mind as a place to post doc when I'm done here in CO.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The idea of stripping power from an incoming governor of the opposition is really frustrating, but in this case, it's mostly the principle of the thing. What has been proposed so far isn't too bad afaik. It could have been much worse. But it is certainly worse than whatever labor contract stuff Democrats did in 2010.

That's the odd thing. If they'd just proposed all this stuff without making a big show about how they're going to strip power from the legislature, etc., they wouldn't have all that much backlash.

There was also no reason to wait until now to move the presidential primary to March. Had they done that a year ago, nobody would have batted an eye.

I guess it just goes to show how confident they were that Walker would win a third term. I guess when you win a one-off Presidential race, have a Senate incumbent win, and are winning crazy majorities due to gerrymandered districts, they figured demographics were destiny and that they were invincible.

Either that or they recognize that no matter what they do, as soon as the issue becomes politicized the majority of their (R) voters would back them up no matter what.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Ok, I didn't know that. Still, the email didn't seem jerky to me. He's my state senator as well but if he's terrible from your experience then that's your opinion.

Err, I mean, if he signed a gerrymandered map with the intent to lock in majorities regardless of any plausible voter backlash, I'd say he is quite literally corrupt. Same goes for every other politician out there who has done the same.

Thank you. Like I said before ElectionsGuy's response, WI politics has been very divisive since Walker's ACT 10. There isn't much context needed in our governor's assertion, "The last thing we need is more Madison in our lives." He is the governor; thus, he should be interested in serving ALL Wisconsin citizens, not just the select who vote the way he likes.

If ElectionsGuy needs more examples of the WI GOP despising its two largest urban centers, here's a latest example:

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1069720366946365443

Kinda surprised (well, not really) that he'd be unaware of the rural resentment considering Wisconsin is the subject of probably the most popular case study about rural resentment of the decade.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

This is identity politics. Full stop.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

I'd argue that "Little Chicago" Milwaukee is more of an albatross in this state.

Only because most of rural Wisconsin is basically hofoidstan, aka really racist people. WOW at least tries to pretend to not be and has a lot of conservatives that don't hate black people, as long as they don't have to live next to them.

Katherine Cramer's "Politics of Resentment" makes a case that rural resentment, while directed at both Milwaukee and Madison, is primarily directed at Madison and public employees/state government generally. There are a ton of reasons for this but it mainly boils down to a perception that state government does not understand and does not respond to or respect concerns of rural voters. So when an area like Madison grows into the cultural and economic powerhouse of the state while the rest of the state undergoes the same rural decay we see elsewhere, it's natural for the ire to be directed at Madison and not Milwaukee.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

hagedorn is way overperforming everywhere though.

More like Screnock underperformed. He lost by eight points. It's definitely possible for Hagedorn to overperform and come short especially considering turnout in Dane is up.

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean

Outagamie and Marathon will be some R vote sinks, La Crosse will partially offset that, Menominee will be negligible.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

All precincts up in Eau Claire. Neubauer +16, up ~3K votes.

Both candidates saw their vote share go up relative to the judicial race last year; Neubauer by about 500, Hagedorn by about 2K.

With 3% out in Milwaukee Neubauer is down about 5K relative to Dallet and Hagedorn is up about 5K from Screnock.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

If the last 5% out of Dane is at the same margin as the other 95% is then Neubauer should net another 5000 votes there.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Vernon and Jackson are about 50% in but so far Neubauer is beating Evers's margins there (Evers lost Jackson and won Vernon by 2%).

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

What we have from Driftless is good for Neubauer so far. Hagedorn is hella underperforming Walker in Vernon and Buffalo and is losing Jackson so far (all are around 50%).

Flip side is so far Neubauer is losing Portage and Brown (both at 20%) and Outagamie and Marathon haven't reported yet.

Also from MSJ there are still eight precincts in Dane outstanding.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Dunn 80% in: Hagedorn up about 250. Walker won by ~600.

e: didn't adjust for turnout both R candidates have/had 4% leads

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Maybe some 2020 candidates should've made a stop in WI a Bernie or Beto rally in Milwaukee or Madison would've helped. Such an easy thing to do too

Beto was in Madison around St. Patrick's Day and Klobuchar I think has been in Wisconsin several times.

Neubauer wins Door County 54-46

Is that final? What's the net vote?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Sauk 100% in. Neubauer 57-43 (1800 net). Evers won Sauk by 54-43.

Jackson 100% in. Hagedorn 51-49 (500 net). Walker won Jackson 51-46.

Starting to get a little nervous.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

DDHQ up to 7K / 0.6%

HOLD ON TO YOUR BUTTS