NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Big Abraham]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

[Big Abraham]

Can Ciattarelli still win?!

Yes. Look at the Somerset results. Murphy is massively underperforming in this county that Biden won.

Isn't he overperforming his 2017 win there?

No. Phil Murphy won Somerset in 2017. Now he's losing it by close to 10 points.

[Big Abraham]

80% of the vote in and Tortellini still leads by a point. Still suburban counties where he is heavily favored left to count anywhere from 20% of the vote in Cumberland to 99% of the vote in Salem. He's now leading in Passaic with 60% of the vote in. Anyone else see where Murphy can make it up? Because I don't.

[Big Abraham]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

Booster shots are less effective over time with each new jab. More isn't always better.

[Big Abraham]

-snip-

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

Booster shots are less effective over time with each new jab. More isn't always better.

Do you have any evidence of this? I don't think people are suggesting indefinite annual covid booster shots, just large scale usage of them for vulnerable populations at this time—as vaccination rates slowly increase over time, covid numbers will finally drop to negligible levels (e.g. less than 100 deaths/day, less than 10 deaths/day, choose a metric). Booster shots would then likely no longer be necessary, or incorporated into the annual flu shot in some lighter dosage.

Some people are definitely suggesting it, Israel is on its 4th or 5th jab already and the booster is only effective for 6 months.

But here's some evidence that the effectiveness decreases over time

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/booster-shots-and-declining-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines-what-to-know

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/covid-booster-shots-data-shows-third-shots-not-appropriate-at-this-time-scientists-conclude.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02532-4

Also the dude who literally developed the mRNA vaccine has said this repeatedly

[Big Abraham]

Murphy's lead will only grow from here. It's done.

[Big Abraham]

Ciattarelli lost Somerset, lost Bergen, lost Passaic, lost Burlington. Those were all counties he was leading in late last night. The main problem is NJ doesn't really make a distinction between absentee and same-day ballots when they release the numbers. But since it's been determined nearly all the remaining vote is absentee from Dem areas then there's absolutely no hope.

This will probably still be the closest gubernatorial race in the state since... 1997? So, still not a great look for the governing party.

[Big Abraham]

Have they called the race for Phillip yet? Because they need to do that.

[Big Abraham]

https://twitter.com/dontcurvemeplz/status/1455968148189065231

lol

Oh, so Sweeney lost to a deplorable deplorable. Amazing. This guy looks like a potential gold mine.

The $153 he spent on his campaign well spent.

[Big Abraham]

His twitter banner is a stock photo of a bald eagle without the watermarks removed, how am I just now hearing about this, pure comedy gold

[Big Abraham]

Edward Durr will be the state legislator of fiscal conservatism par excellence. My man raised $10k and spent a few dozen bucks on flyers and doughnuts.

[Big Abraham]

Edward Durr will be the state legislator of fiscal conservatism par excellence. My man raised $10k and spent a few dozen bucks on flyers and doughnuts.

His victory certainly is astonishing, though not unprecedented. There have been instances before of people with few or no resources running for political office and winning.

Against someone nearly as powerful as Murphy himself? Sweeney is the full embodiment of everything that is the corruption of the all powerful South Jersey Democratic machine. He was touted as a 2025 gubernatorial candidate. There are many governors around the country who wish they had as much power as Stephen Sweeney, and a no name truck driver completely destroyed him