NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Already seeing calls for full county audits and recounts floating around my social media.  

[Pollster]

Sweeney losing (even without the context of his opponent being a some guy who spent less than $200) is a New Jersey political earthquake and the biggest blow to the Jersey political machine in decades.

If anything, could be an owl goal for NJ Republicans as Sweeney was virtually the only thing preventing Murphy from accomplishing many progressive goals.

[jman123]

Where is the outstanding vote ? Thats the key to this race.

[BigSerg]

Unless there's another glitch, the 400-vote lead isn't going to hold, since what's out is in Democratic-leaning counties.

Now 800. NJ needs to be recounted. There have been too many errors and this race has come to the wire.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455936850540077057

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455936850540077057

With where the rest of the vote is, Murphy should win this

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455936850540077057

Election Day votes be counted until *two* days after the election? This is insanity. Not to mention the fact there is apparently at *least* 70K VBMs still sitting out there

[wbrocks67]

Actually scratch that, likely ~100K VBMs still out.

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1455823547058855936

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455933089629233154

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

New Jersey being a complete mess? Well, I never.

[Matty]

The democrat party would lose so many more elections if it wasn’t so easy to mail in a ballot


I want 2014 midterm era excuse-only mail voting so bad

This makes me so angry

[Schiff for Senate]

Murphy should win but I don't know what to think at this point. He obviously won't win by the 9 point margin I predicted...at this point I'd consider myself close if he even won. Right now the race is lean Democratic, maybe likely.

[wbrocks67]

The democrat party would lose so many more elections if it wasn’t so easy to mail in a ballot


I want 2014 midterm era excuse-only mail voting so bad

This makes me so angry

So you want to make it harder for people to vote? There is nothing wrong with mail-in voting - for anyone. It makes it easier for all registered voters to vote, full stop.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy should win but I don't know what to think at this point. He obviously won't win by the 9 point margin I predicted...at this point I'd consider myself close if he even won. Right now the race is lean Democratic, maybe likely.

Not sure why people keep on acting like this isn't a foregone conclusion... besides Essex there is no election day vote left from what I can tell, and it's all VBM, which Dems had a +40 lead in.

It's just frustrating that it's taking this long to count.

[wbrocks67]

And more votes just got dumped and now Murphy has a +15K lead

Murphy (D) 1,199,614 - 49.9%
Ciatarrelli (R) 1,184,723 - 49.3%

[Alben Barkley]

The race is over, Dave called it and he is literally never wrong. But it was pathetically close.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

And more votes just got dumped and now Murphy has a +15K lead

Murphy (D) 1,199,614 - 49.9%
Ciatarrelli (R) 1,184,723 - 49.3%

STOP THE COUNT

[Schiff for Senate]

Murphy should win but I don't know what to think at this point. He obviously won't win by the 9 point margin I predicted...at this point I'd consider myself close if he even won. Right now the race is lean Democratic, maybe likely.

Not sure why people keep on acting like this isn't a foregone conclusion... besides Essex there is no election day vote left from what I can tell, and it's all VBM, which Dems had a +40 lead in.

It's just frustrating that it's taking this long to count.

I know, I know, really, it's just a matter of counting the votes but I'd advise no one get your hopes up until Murphy's the confirmed winner. Who knows what's possible now that VA's gone red by 2 points.

EDIT: Murphy officially won according to Dave Wasserman. But nothing to celebrate given that it's a Biden+16 state and the race was competitive to begin with. Rather, brace yourself for 2022.

[CookieDamage]

And more votes just got dumped and now Murphy has a +15K lead

Murphy (D) 1,199,614 - 49.9%
Ciatarrelli (R) 1,184,723 - 49.3%

Mental breakdown averted

[Progressive Pessimist]

GOP turnout is always increased here in off-year elections. As much as I still underestimated how bad last night was going to be, I always anticipated this possibility to some degree. In my defense, I made that point in this megathread and others. Our state hates incumbent Democrats, we just do, historically. Yet Murphy will still hold a great accomplishment of actually being the first Democratic Governor re-elected in over forty years. I Am assuming that he'll win in the end (whenever that willbe) still. Calling that little factoid bittersweet is way too generous though. This was a f***ing s***show, and I really was hoping for at least some solace from my own state with hiw Virginia was looking. But we, as Democrats, can't even be afforded that these days. And it's probably going to get worse as this race will now likely attract the conspiracy, fraudit, and voter suppression attention.

You know, I've defended New Jersey from a lot if jokes and insults over the years on this website. But you all have my permission now to go Taylor Ham with ripping on us. Have at it because we now deserve it.

These state races don't always indicate much about federal ones. There are plenty of people who will vote one way at the state level but not the same at the federal level. Kentucky and Louisiana are a good example.

That is indeed true, and very much so in New Jersey. Our 2019 elections actually demonstrated this and probably should have been a warning for this year. It was a fairly good year for the Republicans (and probably what really inspired Van Drew to become a turncoat) and that was following their absolute wipeout in 2018 where there were federal elections. Hell. The very unpopular Menendez win that year probably entirely because the balance if the Senate would have shifted if people voted with their hearts for Hugin. Voters are capable if discerning the differences between local, federal, and statewide races; for better wnd worse...usually worse...

I mean the ad was kinda spammy and annoying but Murphy saying NJ's not your state if you don't like high taxes is probably not the best statement.

He actually said that?

"If taxes are your issue, then we're probably not your state" was sort of taken out of context.

Murphy was explaining to a business group that NJ is a high tax, high value state (which to an extent is true) and that it's not going to be able to compete with state like Florida or Texas. Ciattarelli ads made it seem like Murphy cut off voters' concerns. It was quite disingenuous.

Also, I know the average voter doesn't care about facts, but here is what's interesting.
Property taxes rose 18.6% during Christie's (R) first term but only 6% during Corzine (D) and 4% during Murphy (D).

https://gothamist.com/news/every-four-years-new-jersey-its-property-taxes-stupid

https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2013/05/13-05-06-net-property-tax-increase-much-higher-under-christie-than-corzine/

I highly doubt that Ciattarelli will be able to cut property taxes. I wish NJ voters saw that lower property taxes is not an automatic thing just because they elect a Republican.

You are 100% correct. But the problem is that Murphy didn't make that case. He didn't defend himself from S***arelli's accusations or make much of his own case really ir even cite many of his accomplishments.

 His campaign was actually worse than McAuliffe's, if you ask me. Say what you will about his unfocused campaign, but McAuliffe did not seem to take his race for granted as Murphy seemed to. He let S***tarelli dominate the airwaves and define him. And what ads Murphy did have were fairly generic, some were decent, but just didn't generate the enthusiasm he needed to inspire in the foreboding national environment that formed. Now, to be fair, polling indicated it would have been a comfortable win for him, even if he did underperform Biden or even Menendez quite a bit. But I am of the philosophy that one should always run a campaign assuming you're losing no matter what to blunt any potential voter apathy or complacency. Murphy didn't do that and cost his party in every other respect by overestimating our public so much. F***ing Bridgegate Bridget Kelly is now our county clerk, for s***'s sake! Though maybe with Sweeney losing it will all be worth it. It would be hilarious if that was Murphy's real intent the entire time.

[Big Abraham]

Murphy's lead will only grow from here. It's done.

[lfromnj]

The race is over, Dave called it and he is literally never wrong. But it was pathetically close.

Some of that call was based on a 9k net vote error by Demonrats trying to steal the election till they were caught

But yeah it is over.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It looks like Lakewood played a major role in Murphy eking it out. He provided vital support for Orthodox Jews in NJ against bigoted municipalities like Mahwah, and high-profile Rabbis endorsed him and flipped the district from heavily Trump to overwhelmingly Murphy. Without that bloc, the remaining blue areas might not have been enough.

[lfromnj]

It looks like Lakewood played a major role in Murphy eking it out. He provided vital support for Orthodox Jews in NJ against bigoted municipalities like Mahwah, and high-profile Rabbis endorsed him and flipped the district from heavily Trump to overwhelmingly Murphy. Without that bloc, the remaining blue areas might not have been enough.

Do you know the results in Lakewood?

[Ferguson97]

The way elections are conducted in america is an embarrassment, and it 100% is due to our infrastructure not being able to handle early mail voting in a timely fashion.

No other country of similar wealth has issues like this

One particular party is to blame, a party that abuses a system that was NEVER meant for anyone but the sick, the elderly, the disabled, and other exceptions

21 year old college students in great physical shape that can spend hours making tik tok videos can find the time to get to a poll station on Election Day

How is letting people vote in a more convenient way "abusing the system"

Like, there is no rational objection here.

It doesn't matter if someone is able-bodied, unemployed, and lives across the street from their voting precinct - they should be allowed to vote by mail if they want. That's their prerogative.