Which Florida counties flip?

[iceman]

At this point I think Hillsborough, Pinellas, Seminole, Duval and Miami-Dade flip.

There’s maybe an outside chance that Palm Beach would flip?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Osceola flips before Palm Beach I would think. And given that it's largely Puerto Rican, it could have a crazy swing and flip even ahead of the more stable Hillsborough.

[SnowLabrador]

At this point I think Hillsborough, Pinellas, Seminole, Duval and Miami-Dade flip.

There’s maybe an outside chance that Palm Beach would flip?

That sounds like a reasonable prediction. I'm assuming that based on your prediction of Miami-Dade flipping, Florida is double-digit Trump?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Seminole is too upscale and white to back Trump again. The Stephanie Murphy FL-07 seat didn't even vote for Rubio in 2022. Trump has a better shot of flipping Osceola county. Duval is also possible, but I think Biden narrowly holds on tp ot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Demings counties are basically safe D. With Biden also keeping Duval, Hillsborough, and Osceola.

Miami-Dade is iffy to me.

Pinellas and Seminole definitely flip to Trump.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Miami-Dade, Pinellas, and Hillsborough.  I'm actually guessing no on Seminole, Duval, Osceola, and Palm Beach, though all are possible.

[iceman]

At this point I think Hillsborough, Pinellas, Seminole, Duval and Miami-Dade flip.

There’s maybe an outside chance that Palm Beach would flip?

That sounds like a reasonable prediction. I'm assuming that based on your prediction of Miami-Dade flipping, Florida is double-digit Trump?

Seeing the registration is almost 1 million GOP advantage which can only grow come election day, I’d say Trump would win in a Rubio-esque like margin here. So I’m quite sure Miami-Dade will flip.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Seminole is too upscale and white to back Trump again. The Stephanie Murphy FL-07 seat didn't even vote for Rubio in 2022. Trump has a better shot of flipping Osceola county. Duval is also possible, but I think Biden narrowly holds on tp ot.

Also funny enough Seminole County is the best County for Dems when it comes to D v R registration change since 2020 Pres - Rs still out register Ds but large independent block that seems to favor Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

[DPKdebator]

Pinellas only.

[MillennialModerate]

I can’t see the big 3 flipping like MD in the Governors race. DeSantis is more popular in Florida than Trump is (Remember the GOP primary is just Republican voters). But if any county goes in Florida it’s Pinellas

[seskoog]

At this point I think Hillsborough, Pinellas, Seminole, Duval and Miami-Dade flip.

There’s maybe an outside chance that Palm Beach would flip?

There's no way in hell Trump outperforms Rubio in FL.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The Demings counties are basically safe D. With Biden also keeping Duval, Hillsborough, and Osceola.

Miami-Dade is iffy to me.

Pinellas and Seminole definitely flip to Trump.

Change your name to Progressive Optimist lol.

[kwabbit]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

Crist carried Hillsborough in 2014, although just barely.

Pinellas and Pasco are more similar than Pinellas and Hillsborough. In Hillsborough, I'd estimate the 55% of Whites have a college degree. That might be 40% in Pinellas and 30% in Pasco.

Hillsborough definitely is more typically Southern. More class and racial polarization. South Tampa is very similar to Buckhead in Atlanta. Pinellas and Pasco have demographics more like someplace like Saginaw County, MI than Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc. Interior Pinellas and the Pasco Coast are filled with heavily White trailer parks that loved Clinton, Gore, and even Obama through 2012. These communities have unsurprisingly swung massively to Trump, but they remained Dem for a long time, and backed Crist to a hilt in 2014.

Holiday, FL (Southern Coastal Pasco, pop 25k):
75% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Bachelor's attainment

2000: D+14
2012: D+10
2014: D+13
2016: R+15
2020: R+19

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

Crist carried Hillsborough in 2014, although just barely.

Pinellas and Pasco are more similar than Pinellas and Hillsborough. In Hillsborough, I'd estimate the 55% of Whites have a college degree. That might be 40% in Pinellas and 30% in Pasco.

Hillsborough definitely is more typically Southern. More class and racial polarization. South Tampa is very similar to Buckhead in Atlanta. Pinellas and Pasco have demographics more like someplace like Saginaw County, MI than Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc. Interior Pinellas and the Pasco Coast are filled with heavily White trailer parks that loved Clinton, Gore, and even Obama through 2012. These communities have unsurprisingly swung massively to Trump, but they remained Dem for a long time, and backed Crist to a hilt in 2014.

Holiday, FL (Southern Coastal Pasco, pop 25k):
75% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Bachelor's attainment

2000: D+14
2012: D+10
2014: D+13
2016: R+15
2020: R+19

Oops my bad I think I meant to say Scott came close.

Hillsborough County is interested because college educational attainment is actually pretty good and those communities have swung left since 2008/2012 but the swing in non-college areas to the right has been more intense than many other major American metro areas. One underrated factor at play is west of downtown there is a pretty notable Cuban community that like Cubans in Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 and again in 2022.

Definitely agree with what you said on all the "trailer home" types communities around the greater Tampa area particularly up the coast. I think many people just see Pinellas and Pasco Counties as "suburban" because of their high population and so treat them as counties that should be shifting left, but as you point these trailer park areas are much more similliar demographically and in their behavior to the rural midwest which is why Dems continue to lose ground in places like Pasco County during the Trump years.

[2016]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

Crist carried Hillsborough in 2014, although just barely.

Pinellas and Pasco are more similar than Pinellas and Hillsborough. In Hillsborough, I'd estimate the 55% of Whites have a college degree. That might be 40% in Pinellas and 30% in Pasco.

Hillsborough definitely is more typically Southern. More class and racial polarization. South Tampa is very similar to Buckhead in Atlanta. Pinellas and Pasco have demographics more like someplace like Saginaw County, MI than Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc. Interior Pinellas and the Pasco Coast are filled with heavily White trailer parks that loved Clinton, Gore, and even Obama through 2012. These communities have unsurprisingly swung massively to Trump, but they remained Dem for a long time, and backed Crist to a hilt in 2014.

Holiday, FL (Southern Coastal Pasco, pop 25k):
75% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Bachelor's attainment

2000: D+14
2012: D+10
2014: D+13
2016: R+15
2020: R+19

Oops my bad I think I meant to say Scott came close.

Hillsborough County is interested because college educational attainment is actually pretty good and those communities have swung left since 2008/2012 but the swing in non-college areas to the right has been more intense than many other major American metro areas. One underrated factor at play is west of downtown there is a pretty notable Cuban community that like Cubans in Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 and again in 2022.

Definitely agree with what you said on all the "trailer home" types communities around the greater Tampa area particularly up the coast. I think many people just see Pinellas and Pasco Counties as "suburban" because of their high population and so treat them as counties that should be shifting left, but as you point these trailer park areas are much more similliar demographically and in their behavior to the rural midwest which is why Dems continue to lose ground in places like Pasco County during the Trump years.

I don't think it's fair to say that Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 + 2022 just because of the Cubans. Yes, they are the largest constituency in Miami-Dade but no one makes up 200,000 Raw Votes in Miami-Dade, like Trump did in 2020, just because of the Cuban Vote. The math doesn't support that.
As I said numerous times in various other Threads regarding South Florida Trump & Republicans also made massive inroads into other Latin America Subgroups like Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans and even people from Panama & Guatemala.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hillsborough will be really interesting to watch imo. The County has been remarkably stagnant Presidentially since 2008 (D+7), but recent regristration and 2022 makes it seem like the County could lurch right and even flip in 2024. Miami-Dade and Hillsborough have the chance to be the 2 largest Republican voting counties nationally.

Despite it's consistency Presidentially the County has always seemed to be a bit more favorable to Republicans downballot - Rubio carried it in 2016 and Scott in 2014 for instance, so 2022 results may be a bit misleading - especially since Dems didn't do uniquely bad there in the context of the state in 2022.

Crist carried Hillsborough in 2014, although just barely.

Pinellas and Pasco are more similar than Pinellas and Hillsborough. In Hillsborough, I'd estimate the 55% of Whites have a college degree. That might be 40% in Pinellas and 30% in Pasco.

Hillsborough definitely is more typically Southern. More class and racial polarization. South Tampa is very similar to Buckhead in Atlanta. Pinellas and Pasco have demographics more like someplace like Saginaw County, MI than Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc. Interior Pinellas and the Pasco Coast are filled with heavily White trailer parks that loved Clinton, Gore, and even Obama through 2012. These communities have unsurprisingly swung massively to Trump, but they remained Dem for a long time, and backed Crist to a hilt in 2014.

Holiday, FL (Southern Coastal Pasco, pop 25k):
75% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Black, 11% Bachelor's attainment

2000: D+14
2012: D+10
2014: D+13
2016: R+15
2020: R+19

Oops my bad I think I meant to say Scott came close.

Hillsborough County is interested because college educational attainment is actually pretty good and those communities have swung left since 2008/2012 but the swing in non-college areas to the right has been more intense than many other major American metro areas. One underrated factor at play is west of downtown there is a pretty notable Cuban community that like Cubans in Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 and again in 2022.

Definitely agree with what you said on all the "trailer home" types communities around the greater Tampa area particularly up the coast. I think many people just see Pinellas and Pasco Counties as "suburban" because of their high population and so treat them as counties that should be shifting left, but as you point these trailer park areas are much more similliar demographically and in their behavior to the rural midwest which is why Dems continue to lose ground in places like Pasco County during the Trump years.

I don't think it's fair to say that Miami-Dade swung hard right in 2020 + 2022 just because of the Cubans. Yes, they are the largest constituency in Miami-Dade but no one makes up 200,000 Raw Votes in Miami-Dade, like Trump did in 2020, just because of the Cuban Vote. The math doesn't support that.
As I said numerous times in various other Threads regarding South Florida Trump & Republicans also made massive inroads into other Latin America Subgroups like Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans and even people from Panama & Guatemala.

Agree - Hillsborough has that dynamic too but on a smaller scale.

[2016]

ProgressiveModerate,
There is some chatter Florida Republicans could eclipse 1M Voter Registration lead by Labor Day. If they somehow would pull this off Democrats are really done in FL for this year and potentially beyond.

[CookieDamage]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

[Kamala's side hoe]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

I think it's more likely Biden narrowly wins Miami-Dade than Trump does. There would probably need to be some sort of huge turnout differential between post-pandemic transplants and "locals", as well as post-2010 non-Cuban Latin American immigrants being anomalously R like post-2010 Cuban immigrants are.

[Devils30]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article286148661.html

A recent Miami-Dade poll had Trump +11. Even if this is an exaggeration, social justice liberalism just does not play well in South Florida.

[kwabbit]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

I think it's more likely Biden narrowly wins Miami-Dade than Trump does. There would probably need to be some sort of huge turnout differential between post-pandemic transplants and "locals", as well as post-2010 non-Cuban Latin American immigrants being anomalously R like post-2010 Cuban immigrants are.

So far the GOP has been making as much progress with non-Cubans as Cubans. Despite recent South American immigrants being relatively richer and educated, Doral (South American) and Hialeah (less affluent Cuban) have been moving about the same. The more affluent Cuban areas have had more muted swings. I think it's fairly safe to assume that both Doral and Hialeah swing right again.

The issue for Dems in Miami-Dade is that the Jewish and Black populations have been shrinking and swinging right. As a percentage of the population, their decline is being replaced by new Latin American immigrants that seem to be keyed into low-fidelity media that often push right wing ideas.

Miami-Dade will probably continue swinging right as a result of this. Post-Covid immigration has been massive and not many are eligible to vote. Once they are, early signs suggest that they will vote strongly GOP.

[Devils30]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

I think it's more likely Biden narrowly wins Miami-Dade than Trump does. There would probably need to be some sort of huge turnout differential between post-pandemic transplants and "locals", as well as post-2010 non-Cuban Latin American immigrants being anomalously R like post-2010 Cuban immigrants are.

So far the GOP has been making as much progress with non-Cubans as Cubans. Despite recent South American immigrants being relatively richer and educated, Doral (South American) and Hialeah (less affluent Cuban) have been moving about the same. The more affluent Cuban areas have had more muted swings. I think it's fairly safe to assume that both Doral and Hialeah swing right again.

The issue for Dems in Miami-Dade is that the Jewish and Black populations have been shrinking and swinging right. As a percentage of the population, their decline is being replaced by new Latin American immigrants that seem to be keyed into low-fidelity media that often push right wing ideas.

Miami-Dade will probably continue swinging right as a result of this. Post-Covid immigration has been massive and not many are eligible to vote. Once they are, early signs suggest that they will vote strongly GOP.

Dems could completely fall off a cliff in South Florida after Trump is around if they nominate a far left candidate. Miami already has a large Orthodox Jewish population but a Dem in 8 years or so could get a massive swing among secular Jews if the left keeps racing toward Hamas.

[iceman]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

I think it's more likely Biden narrowly wins Miami-Dade than Trump does. There would probably need to be some sort of huge turnout differential between post-pandemic transplants and "locals", as well as post-2010 non-Cuban Latin American immigrants being anomalously R like post-2010 Cuban immigrants are.

No way Biden wins Miami-Dade. If you’ve ever been to that place recently, you could easily tell that it’s not Biden’s turf.

[2016]

I can see Miami Dade flipping but who are the voters that would even make that happen? Aren't Republicans maxed out with Cubans there or do they still have room to go with them and Puerto Ricans etc??

It's not just Cubans. It's the Latin Americans as well and no Republicans haven't maxed out with Venezuelans, Colombians, Nicaraguans or people from other Latin American Countries.