India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[jaichind]

It seems, going by the after-the-fact interviews of key people in INC, that Rahul Gandhi did not want to contest in UP mainly because if he won 2 seats he would not want to vacate the Wayanad seat in Kerala for fear that it would impact the 2026 UDF effort in Kerala assembly elections.  On the other hand, the UP INC plus SP are putting pressure on Rahul Gandhi to contest in UP. 

Separately it seems Priyanka Gandhi did not want to contest this time around period.

So it seems the way out is to

a) Delay the announcement until at least after Kerala has voted so as not to impact the INC effort there
b) Have Rahul Gandhi run in UP but not Priyanka Gandhi as a compromise with UP INC and SP
c) Eventually go with Rae Bareli where Rahul Gandhi will win but he will likely have to vacate and INC has a chance of winning the by-election.  If Rahul Gandhi runs and wins in Amethi the INC will for sure lose the by-election after he vacates that seat.

It seems going by these interviews Rahul Gandhi is much more focused on winning back Kerala in the 2026 assembly election than working for a UP revival of INC.  I guess that effort he is delegating to Priyanka Gandhi.

[jaichind]

Muslims share population by seat in Assam

NDA will sweep all seats with a Muslim population below 40% with ease.  In the 40%+ Muslim population, the AIUDF and INC will split the Muslim vote giving NDA a chance. 

AGP has been given Dhubri and Barpeta because they are the more junior partner and get the less winnable seats but also AGP has residual Muslim support.  AIUDF will most likely win Dhubri.  I have AGP winning Barpeta even though AIUDF is not running due to an internal split in the INC,  AGP candidate quality, and CPM running to split the INC vote.   I have INC winning Nagaon despite AIUDF running due to INC candidate's quality edge over BJP.

[jaichind]

BJP ad to counter the INC narrative of BJP wanting to take away reservation by claiming that INC wanted to squeeze Muslims into the OBC/Dalit reservation quota saying that is what INC has done in Karnataka.   Of course, the key problem with that was that when Modi was CM of Gujarat he also had Muslim OBC in the OBC reservation list so Modi himself is guilty in the past of what he claims INC will do.

https://twitter.com/PoliticalViewsO/status/1787415987643613615

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-2024-lok-sabha-election-will-remove-50-cap-give-as-much-reservation-as-needed-rahul-gandhi-5600491

""Will Remove 50% Cap, Give As Much Reservation As Needed": Rahul Gandhi"

In the race to the bottom between BJP and INC over reservation now Rahul Gandhi promises to break the 50% cap on reservations.  What is ironic about this is that such a move will require a change in the Constitution which is what the INC is accusing the BJP of planning to remove reservations.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ranchi/ed-recovers-rs-25-crore-and-counting-still-on-who-is-jharkhand-minister-alamgir-alam/articleshow/109876538.cms

"ED recovers Rs 25 crore and counting still on: Who is Jharkhand minister Alamgir Alam"

Over $3 million found in the house of a domestic help of a INC MLA and Jharkhand minister.  Most likely this money is related to funding for the election. 

In most seats any serious candidate need to spend $7 million or more to have a chance at winning.  In the South this number is higher.
 

[jaichind]

Phase 3 voting is to take place tomorrow across 94 seats.

In 2019 NDA won 81 of these seats.   This time NDA can only lose and I expect them to win 72 of these seats mostly due to losses in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-06/modi-says-no-country-should-run-on-strength-of-one-man-alone

"Modi Questioned on Whether He Would Contest Elections in 2029"

In an interview it seems Modi implies he is not likely to run for re-election in 2029

[OSR stands with Israel]

Phase 3 voting is to take place tomorrow across 94 seats.

In 2019 NDA won 81 of these seats.   This time NDA can only lose and I expect them to win 72 of these seats mostly due to losses in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Do you think at this point it looks likely that the BJP will be reduced below 300 and NDA below 350. Imo I think its possible they get reduced to the 280s and NDA to the 330s

[jaichind]

Do you think at this point it looks likely that the BJP will be reduced below 300 and NDA below 350. Imo I think its possible they get reduced to the 280s and NDA to the 330s

Right now I have NDA/BJP about where they were in 2019.  To be fair that is a de facto loss since they gained seats in AP by forming the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance.  I suspect there is more downside for NDA/BJP than upside relative to my current projection.

[jaichind]

Turnout by state for phase 3 at 1 PM

Assam 45.88%
Bihar 36.69%
Chhattisgarh 46.14% 
Dadra & Nagar Haveli And Daman & Diu 39.94%
Goa 49.04%
Gujarat 37.83%
Karnataka 41.59%
MP 44.67%
Maharashtra 31.55%
UP 38.12%
WB 49.27%

Lower turnout tends to be lower in the 2019 Modi wave areas.  Maharashtra is more competitive this year than in 2019 or 2014 but turnout is especially low.  A lower Gujarat turnout might mean the opposition vote has given up but also means the Modi wave is weaker than in 2019.

[jaichind]

Mahrastara's Baramati has a very low turnout.  This is a bad sign for the BJP -> ally vote transfer. 

Baramati is the home seat of NCP's Pawar clan.  With the NCP split into NCP(Sharad) and NCP(Ajit) it will be Pawar vs Pawer here with NCP(Sharad) Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar, and sitting MP vs NCP(Ajit)'s Sunetra Ajit Pawar, wife of Ajit Pawar. 

This is the most talked about seat in Maharatara and low turnout most likely means the BJP vote is not turning out to pick between the Pawars.   The Modi line on  Mahrastara the last 10 years is about how the NCP and the Pawars are rotten to the core with Modi calling the NCP the "National Corruroption Party".  I guess now it is hard to get the BJP vote to come out to vote for a Pawar.

This seems very correlated with Modi doing an unprecedented number of rallies in Maharashtra since BJP already knows that their vote base has a problem transferring votes to NCP(Ajit) and perhaps SHS(Shinde.)  If the BJP vote cannot transfer to SHS(Shind) then the election in Mahrastara could trun against NDA in a very bad way.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/haryana-4-independent-mlas-to-back-congress-in-lok-sabha-elections-101715066655066.html

"Haryana: 4 Independent MLAs to back Congress in Lok Sabha elections"

4 pro-BJP independent MLAs that were backing the BJP government have defected to backing INC in the LS election.  This is very negative for the BJP since BJP is in power in the center and state so there is no good reason for this defection unless things at the ground level are pushing them toward this move.
 
This almost certainly means the BJP will lose the Haryana assembly election later in 2024.  Right now the only thing keeping BJP in the race in the Haryana LS election is Modi.  Most likely Modi will pull off BJP getting a respectable performance in Haryana but later in the 2024 assembly election, it will get bad for BJP.

[jaichind]

Turnout by state for phase 3 at 3PM

Assam 60.08%
Bihar 46.69%
Chhattisgarh 58.19%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli And Daman & Diu 52.43%
Goa 61.39%
Gujarat 47.03%
Karnataka 54.20%
MP 54.09%
Maharashtra 42.63%
UP 46.78%
WB 63.11%

Similar trends as 1PM.  UP is slowing down the most relative to 1PM.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/cant-treat-politicians-differently-probe-agency-argues-in-arvind-kejriwal-case-5607364

""You Can't Sign Files If You Get Bail": Supreme Court To Arvind Kejriwal"

The Supreme Court is hearing the appeal from Delhi AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal to get bail so he can campaign for AAP-INC in Delhi LS elections.  it seems the Supreme Court most likely will grand him this bail but warned if they do he cannot sign any documents as CM during that period.

[jaichind]

Phase 3 turnout numbers by 8PM.  I suspect it will go up a bit from here but it is mostly this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Rahul Gandhi is insane:

https://www.news18.com/politics/whites-failed-sat-exam-in-us-when-blacks-started-preparing-it-says-rahul-gandhi-in-viral-video-8879884.html

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is yet again making headlines for making up stories about the SAT exam in the United States of America. In a video going viral on social media, Gandhi can be seen telling a group of people that “whites failed the SAT exam when the black people started preparing the question paper.”

“Who takes the call about what is merit? I’ll tell you a small story. There was a beautiful experiment. Just like we have IITs, in America, they have the SAT exams. When the SAT was first implemented, a strange thing happened. All the whites in America were topping. But the blacks or those who were speaking Spanish were not doing so well,” Gandhi said.

He further added, “Their big academicians then said that the blacks and Latin Americans are not meritorious. They are not being able to understand. This went on for years. Then one day after a professor suggested, they got these papers prepared by the blacks. You know what happened? All the whites failed.” People can be seen clapping and laughing to Gandhi’s statement in the video.

“This means that the one who is controlling the system is also deciding the merit. If you are a farmer’s son and I’m a bureaucrat’s son. If you prepare the exam, I’m bound to fail,” Gandhi said. In the video, Gandhi went on to use the story as an analogy to say that if those preparing the IITs are upper castes and the Dalits are failing, the Dalits should prepare the exam.

[lfromnj]

To be specific I don't think there has been a redesigned SAT. I am pretty sure Gandhi is talking about the BITCH test

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Intelligence_Test_of_Cultural_Homogeneity

[pikachu]

Since someone needs to replace jaichind spamming election news:

- Phase 3 turnout was down.

- There’s been a lot of media coverage from the West lately on Modi’s rhetoric against Muslims getting sanctioned by the election commission.

- Mayawati’s removed her nephew as her successor and the guy running the BSP campaign for sharp anti-BJP rhetoric. Still a bunch of UP seats that need to be voted on. BSP seems to be trying harder than the last few elections.

[pikachu]

More link spam!

- Phase 4 is on May 12. India Today with a preview including a map of what seats will be up and where things should be close.

- Arvind Kejriwal got interim bail following a Supreme Court decision. He had been in jail since March 21. Delhi votes in Phase 6, which is on May 25.

- The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council put out a report on how India's religious demographics have changed between 1950 to 2015. One could guess about the reason for the timing on this. Beyond that, an interesting analysis on the context of the report in India's population policies - there's a lot of disagreement, even within the BJP, over whether India has been successful at regulation population growth.

- A report on voter intimidation in UP Muslim villages which voted for SP previously.

- Continued fighting about reservations, in all areas. Goes with jaichind's previous posts that Congress's charges about reservations seem to have worked.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Now the opposition is running on the fact that Modi will not be PM for more than a year if the BJP is reelected.

Of Course the BJP denied this

https://theprint.in/politics/modi-not-retiring-at-75-will-complete-3rd-term-as-pm-bjp-responds-to-kejriwal/2080609/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Of Course the BJP denied this

https://theprint.in/politics/modi-not-retiring-at-75-will-complete-3rd-term-as-pm-bjp-responds-to-kejriwal/2080609/

BJP would have to be very dumb to just say yes and concede the battlefield completely to INDIA on this issue.

[pikachu]

Apologies for not keeping up the spam - was busy this weekend.

- Phase 4 happen, with 64.6% voter turnout. The highest was in West Bengal and the lowest was in Srinagar. That being said, Srinagar has its highest turnout in decades.

- Report from Amethi, where the Modi factor is still strong.

- Modi filed his candidacy in Varnasi and had an accompanying rally. Good look for him.

- Rahul Gandhi has been talking a lot about the Constitution recently.

- From Western media, The Economist had an article recently on potential Modi successors (Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath) and the NYT did a big Rahul Gandhi profile a few weeks ago.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/lok-sabha-elections-2024-prashant-kishor-bjp-will-be-in-the-300-range-dont-see-any-meaningful-decline-in-north-west-429501-2024-05-15

Prashant Kishor (a reliable analyst) says the results so far look like not much has changed from 2019. So INC claims they can bring the NDA below 272 are not realistic but neither are the NDA claims they can get over 400

Political analyst Prashant Kishor said in a recent interview that the Bharatiya Janata Party will get seats in the 300 range in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections 2024. He added that no meaningful decline is likely in the saffron party's tally in the general elections.

"After all commentaries and debates, I don't see any meaningful decline in the BJP's seats in North and West. In the South and East, the BJP's vote share and seats will increase. If you add this, what BJP has today about 300 seats, I don't see any major change in that - positively and negatively," Kishor said in an interview with RTV.

Kishor predicted minimal losses for the BJP in North and West as well as gains in West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. He further explained that the BJP-led NDA has a massive advantage in the ongoing Lok Sabha polls. Kishor said that he has not seen anything on the ground which hints at the likelihood of a startling result.

"At the same time, I have been saying this for the last several months that those people who feel that there is no opposition in Bihar, everything is only Modi and in the name of Modi, some party will get get 400 seats. But it is not possible that anyone will get 400 seats," Kishor noted.

[pikachu]

- An AAP Rajya Sabha member has filed an FIR that Arvind Kejriwal's aide sexually assaulted her at the chief minister's residence.

- Much of Mumbai will be voting in Phase 5, where many seats will be a fight between the Shinde Sena (allied with the BJP) and Thackeray Sena (son of the famed Bal, not allied with the BJP). A battle with a lot of practical and ideological stakes - the winner gains influence of the BMC, but it also will show who has the heart and soul of the Sena base in the city.

- Along those lines, a preview by The Hindu of the Phase 5 seat in UP, including Rae Bareli and Amethi.

- Mamata Banerjee has been saying conflicting things about how much she supports INDIA and what the TMC's involvement in a hypothetical government would look like.

- An interesting analysis on how many of the BJP's candidates are defectors from other parties. (As a sidebar, I think people who don't follow Indian politics at all would be surprised by the number of defections and straight-up criminal politicians who are there.)

- Just as a vibes thing, feel like people are more up on Modi and the BJP's prospects than they were a few days ago. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

- An AAP Rajya Sabha member has filed an FIR that Arvind Kejriwal's aide sexually assaulted her at the chief minister's residence.

- Much of Mumbai will be voting in Phase 5, where many seats will be a fight between the Shinde Sena (allied with the BJP) and Thackeray Sena (son of the famed Bal, not allied with the BJP). A battle with a lot of practical and ideological stakes - the winner gains influence of the BMC, but it also will show who has the heart and soul of the Sena base in the city.

- Along those lines, a preview by The Hindu of the Phase 5 seat in UP, including Rae Bareli and Amethi.

- Mamata Banerjee has been saying conflicting things about how much she supports INDIA and what the TMC's involvement in a hypothetical government would look like.

- An interesting analysis on how many of the BJP's candidates are defectors from other parties. (As a sidebar, I think people who don't follow Indian politics at all would be surprised by the number of defections and straight-up criminal politicians who are there.)

- Just as a vibes thing, feel like people are more up on Modi and the BJP's prospects than they were a few days ago. 

I think the reason people were down on Modi’s chances were in many ways due to expectations the BJP and the pre election polls set . The fact is it’s very mathematically difficult to get the NDA over 370 let alone 400 without another wave so when the wave didn’t materialize that made people feel more down on BJP’s prospects than they should have . Of course after this the INC started to say they could bring the NDA below 272 , and when that doesn’t seem like materializing either , people are now more up on BJP’s prospects .

In reality I don’t think really much has changed and the outcome will be somewhere between the NDA at 325 and NDA at 360.