Quebec 2022 Election

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't know much about QC-poli, so maybe someone can clear this up for me:



Québec Solidaire clearly defines itself as sovereigntist party, but do they just not emphasize it like the PQ does? Is it a passive thing, like sovereignty is cool I guess, but we're happy to just have more rent control and government programs, or are they actually firm on the idea, but many of their federalist voters don't care because they just want to vote for a left-wing party?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't know much about QC-poli, so maybe someone can clear this up for me:



Québec Solidaire clearly defines itself as sovereigntist party, but do they just not emphasize it like the PQ does? Is it a passive thing, like sovereignty is cool I guess, but we're happy to just have more rent control and government programs, or are they actually firm on the idea, but many of their federalist voters don't care because they just want to vote for a left-wing party?

Léger in June also had a referendum question. Overall 32% would vote yes, 52% against, 15% no answer/don't know. By language francos are 39% for, 45% against 17% no answer. Non francophone 8% for, 82% against, 10% no answer.

By party
CAQ 43 yes, 42 no, 15 don't know
PLQ 6 yes, 87 no, 7 don't know
PCQ 21 yes, 72 no, 7 don't know
QS 39 yes, 51 no, 10 don't know
PQ 86 yes, 5 no, 9 don't know

Sice CAQ has the most overall support we can say the biggest number of sovereigntists vote CAQ. In this poll QS is even less sovereigntist than in Mainstreet. To think that Option Nationale decided to merge with QS.

I crunched the numbers on that Léger poll, here's how it breaks down in terms of how the two different camps vote:

Sovereigntists:
CAQ: 55%
PQ: 24%
QS: 17%
PCQ: 10%
PLQ: 3%

Federalists:
CAQ: 32%
PLQ: 30%
PCQ: 20%
QS: 13%
PQ: 1%

The federalist camp is pretty split, but sovereigntists have drifted largely to CAQ. I think Quebec nationalists have done well to put aside the S-word and instead focus on securing maximum independence from Ottawa within the same federation. This seems to be Legault's approach to the nationalism issue, and it may be the most effective approach yet.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The seat models for Qc2022 might be underestimating the PCQ, simply because it's hard to estimate the riding-by-riding swing for a party that went from 1.5% of the vote to polling in the high teens. Taking a CPC+PPC aggregate might be more accurate in estimating the PCQ vote

This is always true when it comes to new parties. But what is also true is that these places were/still probably are some of CAQ's best. So reducing these seats from a 40 to 20 point CAQ margin is still a CAQ victory.

That's a good point, and I think Duhaime is trying to find a secondary base by picking off more right-leaning Anglo and allophone Liberals in Montreal and Laval.

As I see it, CAQ is trying to finish off the PQ by picking up their voters, while the PCQ is picking up CAQistes on the right end of the party - while also picking up more right-wing Liberals.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Why am I not surprised the leader of the Conservatives is a radio host?

That's the unsurprising part - the more surprising part might be that he's the first openly gay leader of a Quebec political party

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

André Boisclair was the first openly gay leader of a Quebec political party 15 years ago.

And apparently Manon Massé is too. I stand corrected, I shouldn't believe everything people say on the internet lol