Why the Hawley hype?

[Octowakandi]

Hawley is like the only chance the GOP has of becoming the big majoritarian working class party in the next decade that the Trump experiment took a step towards in campaigning and failed miserably in governing. He's the only candidate I'm really excited about in that sense. This is all assuming a Trump loss by the way. If Trump pulls out a win, then the whole working class party thing gets pushed back two decades due to this incompetence and the losses sustained during his reign.

Also, before I explain my reasoning, I want to say that I completely agree with Yankee on everything he said. It's been apparent for a while that the GOP is the party of no ideas and what ideas they do have are pitifully insignificant due to trying to work within the confines of the GOP orthodoxy.

The problem is that as the GOP approaches the 2024 primaries, everyone is going to agree that Trump led a revolution in GOP thinking and every candidate will promise to MAGA. The question is what does that mean. For instance, I really like Nikki Haley and think she's straight up the most electable choice. She has been a great example of a Republican triangulating all the parts of Trumpism with traditional Republican beliefs. But I don't think that's enough for the GOP to move forward. I think she'll be too moderate on economic issues or just be bog standard. Her beliefs are not such that she'll really gravitate to economic policies that actually help the people that are struggling in this country. I feel like Trump, she would pass tax cuts but not family leave or lowering prescription drugs (actual popular policies, I know!). She may win two terms, have high approvals, but does nothing to winning more people to the GOP in a long term way.

Pence is the same issue except even less electable and exciting. He'll be Trumpist on the wall, China, fighting the media, and that'll be it.

I think Cotton is also in the same boat. He's positioned himself as a populist and one most like Trump, but I don't see it at all and I don't think the voters will be fooled either. He's a neocon that wants to build a wall. It genuinely seems the only aspects of Trumpism, which in this case I'll use @krazen1211 and his "definition":

'Trumpism' is the fact that the pre Trump GOP was too eager to invade foreign nations, is far too eager to help rich people and business interests, and doesn't advance the causes of social/cultural conservatism. Take those as vague definitions intentionally.

The only aspects of Trumpism Cotton takes is immigration and being aggressive in attitude. He wouldn't even pull troops out of other theaters. He would accelerate the loss in the suburbs and among college whites without gaining much for the party.

You have guys like Rubio and DeSantis who are more on the right boat, but I don't know how much of a guiding philosophy they have. Rubio especially seems to have made a pragmatic conversion to Trumpism although he genuinely has reform tendencies. I don't think he knows why we need reform or what kind of reform we need beyond vaguely "making things better." DeSantis similiarly feels that way to me but I don't follow him as well. I get a focus group feel from his convictions (aka he has none) considering he went from a Freedom Caucuser to whatever he is now.

And that leaves us with Hawley. He has a philosophy. The man wrote a book on TR from a conservative's perspective which is how Truman has viewed TR. He recognizes how the GOP's policies have failed the very voters it supposedly champions. And he knows that house of cards can't last. Look at how he talks about anti-trusting the big tech companies. He seems like he'd actually want populist economic policies and wouldn't just talk abou them.

And he does all this while being able to verbalize it in a way that doesn't just come off as your boomer uncle like Trump does so I think he could win suburbs and college educated voters as well.

Anyway, that's my rationale behind Hawley, but I can totally see how someone who is very still attached to traditional Republican beliefs would look at the guy and go "what's the big deal?"

[Octowakandi]

Hawley terrifies me and I am convinced that he will become President. His record isn't spotless (e.g., being anti-RTW and signing onto ACA lawsuits) but he knows rhetorically how to paint himself as a worker friendly trad-con. He's been in the Senate for a year and a half and he's already become basically the Senate figurehead for the "traditional" social conservative movement. My sense is that there are plenty of people in the intellectual trad con world who already adore him (e.g., the press they've given him after the Bostick case).

I think he has much better odds of capturing the post-Trump GOP mantle than someone like Haley or Cotton. Haley is basically an establishment-foisted stiff who is squishy on Trump and will reek of an unpopular establishment. Cotton is hawkish, disdainful of the WWC outside of culture war red meat, and uncharismatic. If he didn't light himself on fire in 2016 I could actually see the Rubio of 2019/2020 being competitive in a national primary but people's memories aren't that short.

I think Haley has done a good job appealing to both sectors and represents a Nixon to Trump's Goldwater in the form of triangulated policies which may be necessary to win a primary and general. I'm not convinced the GOP is ready to go full Hawley yet since the party clearly hasn't let go of their traditional economics. It'll take a little longer. Hawley could still win but it's a much riskier choice, like Reagan in 1968 over 1980.

[Octowakandi]

@Octosteel and @ North Carolina Yankee you guys raise interesting points.
I don't know much about Hawley, but he seems like an interesting candidate for president, I'll look up "TR from a conservative's perspective", do you have a link to the book or is it on kindle?

@Octosteel regarding Trump I've always been skeptical about his ability to deliver any of his promises, because for one he has no governing experience. Though in all fairness to Trump, even let assume he tried to pass a big infrastructure package or a grand vocational apprenticeship program, the biggest obstacle like many have already mentioned would be House and Senate GOP.
Good thing Paul Ryan is no longer a house representative but still the freedom caucus has a significant presence in the house, I don't see them voting for an infrastructure program. They need to be booted out sooner rather than later.

The GOP has a big problem when it comes to healthcare, Obamacare isn't working well, there are a lot of people still uninsured and many people paying high premiums. What's the ideal plan?  I have no idea, but I don't think doing nothing works anymore. The party needs to assign a commission and study carefully what's works, it will take a while to formulate a plan that the party will broadly support and can be sold to the public.

I think Biden will probably win the presidency, the Democrats will keep the house and they might capture the senate. But I don't think Biden would be a happy president, his honeymoon will end the moment he's inaugurated. He'll be dealing with Covid19 economic and health fallout, criminal justice reform, Obamacare, and the left of the democratic party breathing under his neck. I also think he will be physically and mentally exhausted, he'll be inaugurated at the age of 78. He'll be having calls at day and night, meeting on weekdays and weekends, dealing with security, and every problem that arises, this takes a lot from any person. Just look at Obama when he inaugurated in 2008 and the last day of his presidency, he aged over 20 years in 8 years, his hair turned gray and wrinkles were visible all over his face. I'd be truly surprised if Biden was able to serve an entire term, without suffering great mental or physical breakdown, and I don't wish him that, I wish him a long, happy, healthy life.

The Democrats will be extremely joyful when they defeat Trump in November. Just like how many Republicans felt after 2016 winning the presidency by surprise, keeping the house and senate but 2 years later in 2018, the house was lost and the senate was narrowly kept, republicans realized very little been achieved, Obamacare hasn't been fixed or "repealed and replaced", Immigration reform hasn't been delivered and the tax cuts didn't really change public opinion much.

I suspect the Democrats will be equally disappointed by 2022. but who knows what will happen in the future.

I don't think the GOP will win in 2024 if they lose in 2020.

It's called Theodore Roosevelt: Preacher of Righteousness. It's available on JSTOR for free if you have a university or library account.

I think the Freedom Caucus isn't the issue. They know that trump's base is their district's base and they are aware now (they weren't before 2016) that they weren't elected for their economic policies. That's why Mulaney the budget hawk is adding trillions to the budget and Mark Meadows is the Chief of Staff. The real problem is the general leadership and average GOP House member that still have their brains in the Reagan era. But I think if you have a strong republican president with a populist agenda he campaigned on, none of them want to lose their primary enough to oppose it.

Oh I think Biden will have a very hard time. The left is united against trump and will break into a lot of infighting once Biden is in charge if he's not everything they dreamed of and Biden will be less adept at coalition management to Obama who could be all things to all people. Biden is older than Paul von Hindenburg when he was elected President. It's not going to be fun for him


I feel the GOP can pull it together by 2024. They have more of a unifying message that they realize has popular support than they ever did in 2008 or even 2010 when they won their majority. Because I don't think the 2022 GOP will be waging war against it self the way it was doing in 2010.