Can McCain defeat Obama?

[The Hack Hater]

No way. The majority of Americans, besides being tired of the war in Iraq, want a candidate that they see as a breath of fresh air. As long as Obama is able to defend himself well against the vicious attacks the Republicans will unleash on him(especially if they're stupid enough to put race-baiting in their ads) the election is his.

[The Hack Hater]

In the end, I doubt that much will matter because McCain has nothing to run on other than more of the same.  Obama is running on a campaign of hope.  How do you run against hope?  However, the right wing blogs and talk shows will be spreading plenty of talk about how he isn't patriotic and that he is too liberal (as if that's a bad thing) to make McCain very competitive.  However, I believe that it will be turnout that will end McCains bid once everything is over, and the more the right smears Obama the more votes he will get. 

.. with actual policies and solutions?

Obama's entire presidency is about hope because upon electing him, the American people are relying entirely on hope because we really don't know what we'll be getting.

On the other hand, McCain is much older than Obama, so the image of Obama as an "agent of hope" would loom ever more powerfully. That alone wouldn't make the difference, but when you have a candidate that's made clear his position on Iraq, it doesn't bode well for him.

[The Hack Hater]

McCain could win, but he won't.

The primary turnout shows that Democrats are way more excited about this election than Republicans.

A clear majority of voters are against the Iraq War. 

Unlike 2004, where Kerry had to battle upstream, Obama has the wind at his back and McCain doesn't.   

However, if the race goes down to the superdelegates, there could be low turnout on the losing side(Hillary or Obama) and that could throw the election.  That doesn't Republican turnout won't be lower too this time around, since they don't have a huge reason to be excited. But this is an election where hastily calling a winner too early would be foolish.