MO-Chilenski Strategies: Romney+1

[Tender Branson]

48-47 Romney

http://www.scribd.com/doc/102750406/MO-Sen-MO-Gov-Chilenski-Strategies-for-Missouri-Scout-Aug-2012

Never heard of this company before, seems to be their first poll, because I cannot find anything else on Google.

Their numbers are similar to the SUSA poll, only that they find the US Senate race competetive, while SUSA had Akin up by about 10.

[Adam Griffin]

They at least put some work in displaying the information, so maybe that's a good sign. It's interesting that the poll also shows Todd Akin and Claire McCaskill virtually tied (48% to 47%). Still digging through it, but it's probably D-friendly from the base numbers.

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EDIT: Not a terrible sample. 36 R/31 D/33 I

[Eraserhead]

Between this and SUSA, it looks like Missouri is pretty close to a tossup now. It's definitely Obama's best shot at a pickup.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

libruhl hackzors!!!!!!!!!!

[marvelrobbins]

Except for a clear lead for Jay Nixon In governor's race all races are basiclly deadheats.

[Likely Voter]

Obama probably doesn't have the spare cash to go after MO in a serious way, even if it is a potential pickup.

[Miles]

I posted their Senate poll too. I did some research, and they're based out of St. Louis, so at least they're local.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Interesting.

I'd think MO would be more solidly GOP than it is, considering how much of the state is rural and a mix of Midwestern and Southern heritage, and also how conservative the St. Louis suburbs are.

[pbrower2a]

Obama probably doesn't have the spare cash to go after MO in a serious way, even if it is a potential pickup.

But there is a hot Senate race which may matter even more than the electoral votes.

As in North Carolina, the Republicans have no chance to do any hanky-panky with this statewide election. 

[memphis]

Interesting.

I'd think MO would be more solidly GOP than it is, considering how much of the state is rural and a mix of Midwestern and Southern heritage, and also how conservative the St. Louis suburbs are.

St Louis burbs aren't conservative. Obama did very well there. Even Kerry won them. If you wanna see a midwestern city with conservative burbs, check out Cincy or Milwaukee.

[Eraserhead]

Obama probably doesn't have the spare cash to go after MO in a serious way, even if it is a potential pickup.

It all depends on how things sit in October, my man. He may make a last minute run at it if the polls are close, like he did with Indiana in '08.

[Likely Voter]

Obama probably doesn't have the spare cash to go after MO in a serious way, even if it is a potential pickup.

It all depends on how things sit in October, my man. He may make a last minute run at it if the polls are close, like he did with Indiana in '08.

In 2008 he had more cash than his opponent so he could go after IN knowing that McCain couldn't. This time it is the other way around. Romney may throw some cash at MO just to defend it anyway. We have already seen Romney significantly outspend Obama in MI and PA, both of which are somewhat like MO but on the other side (not really swing states but could be).

States like AZ, MT, GA, MO are simply not going to be tipping point states. There is no scenario when one of those goes Obama but he still loses FL and OH. Therefore they are only luxuries he cant afford

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Great news for Obama

[Eraserhead]

Obama probably doesn't have the spare cash to go after MO in a serious way, even if it is a potential pickup.

It all depends on how things sit in October, my man. He may make a last minute run at it if the polls are close, like he did with Indiana in '08.

In 2008 he had more cash than his opponent so he could go after IN knowing that McCain couldn't. This time it is the other way around. Romney may throw some cash at MO just to defend it anyway. We have already seen Romney significantly outspend Obama in MI and PA, both of which are somewhat like MO but on the other side (not really swing states but could be).

States like AZ, MT, GA, MO are simply not going to be tipping point states. There is no scenario when one of those goes Obama but he still loses FL and OH. Therefore they are only luxuries he cant afford

Well, obviously he'll have to be sitting on a pretty solid lead nationally to pay much serious attention to it (just like in '08).