TX: Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation: Trump +12, Kennedy @9%, Stein @2%, Oliver @1%.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Texas President by Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation on 2024-04-10

Summary: D: 34%, R: 46%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Matty]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

[kwabbit]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

TX was 10 points to the right of the nation in 2020. While the baseline expectation is that it will trend left, it has an average educational attainment and a high Hispanic population, so it's very simple to see why it could also be stagnant. Combine that with a narrow Trump national lead and Trump +12 is very reasonable. I think the Cygnal poll is probably a better estimate, but Trump +12 is not surprising.

[Redban]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

There is no viable scenario where Trump is tied, ahead, or within 1%  nationally; and he isn’t approaching or exceeding McCain’s 2008 TX margin. So your statement is saying that Trump can never be tied, ahead, or within 1% of the national popular vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm this poll I posted in Congressional Eday Cruz only up 5 on Allred

[2016]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

There is no viable scenario where Trump is tied, ahead, or within 1%  nationally; and he isn’t approaching or exceeding McCain’s 2008 TX margin. So your statement is saying that Trump can never be tied, ahead, or within 1% of the national popular vote

Tough to turn Texas Blue when you as a Incumbent POTUS have a Favorability Rating of 37 %!

37 % FOLKS!

So Biden is - 25 while Trump is +1.

Also, Senator Cruz isn't as unpolular as the Peak Atlas Dems claim.

Finally we can now clearly say (and I know Democrats do not want to hear this) that the Immigration Issue is outweighing whatever Advantages Dems have on Abortion. At least in Texas that's the case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the same problem that Ds have with Hogan is happening to Rs with ALLRED, it's wave insurance anyways, but I have it on my map just in case ALLRED wins

The Rs are use to running against Beto, Allred is more intelligent than Beto


Cruz is racist anyways he supported Neil Gorsuch one of the three most racist justices on the Crt, next to Alito and Thomas

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

There is no viable scenario where Trump is tied, ahead, or within 1%  nationally; and he isn’t approaching or exceeding McCain’s 2008 TX margin. So your statement is saying that Trump can never be tied, ahead, or within 1% of the national popular vote

McCain had a lot more support in the suburbs though. Harris is going to be double digits Biden, and Fort Bend, Williamson, and Hays are gone for Trump. Dallas and Travis are much bluer than they were in 2008. Tarrant is going to be close whereas it was safe R in 2008 and Collin is nowhere as red as it once was. Even if Trump improves in the PV I don't see him recovering much in these places.

[President Johnson]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

And basically any poll that has Biden and Trump only at 80% combined.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Me thinks TX goes R for Prez and D for S, there are enough blks in TX that can't stand Cruz but would vote Trump. It's not that easy to run ALLRED than Beto

I wantta see Cruz lose to Allred, he voted for racist Neil Gorsuch

I can Ds winning 319 and TX going blue for S

I am donating to ALLRED, Casy, Brown, Tester, and Gallegos

[super6646]

It’s not impossible if he can turn the tide in suburban Texas and continue making gains along the Rio grande counties.

In saying that I think Texas is within 10 pts.

[TML]

This poll also has cross tabs specific to Hispanic voters. Note that the cross tabs have Trump/Cruz winning immigrant Hispanics while losing those who were born in the US. This directly contradicts past election results where Hispanics born in the US (especially those whose families have already been here for many generations - which was the main driver of recent R gains in South Texas) were more R-leaning than immigrant Hispanics.

[Eraserhead]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

They still print these polls out on paper?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

There is no viable scenario where Trump is tied, ahead, or within 1%  nationally; and he isn’t approaching or exceeding McCain’s 2008 TX margin. So your statement is saying that Trump can never be tied, ahead, or within 1% of the national popular vote

McCain had a lot more support in the suburbs though. Harris is going to be double digits Biden, and Fort Bend, Williamson, and Hays are gone for Trump. Dallas and Travis are much bluer than they were in 2008. Tarrant is going to be close whereas it was safe R in 2008 and Collin is nowhere as red as it once was. Even if Trump improves in the PV I don't see him recovering much in these places.

Harris is very hispanic. There is no universe trump gets the numbers he did nationally and not improve in Harris. I don't see it flipping but it will not be double digits

[Skill and Chance]

Any poll that has trump approaching McCain’s 2008 TX margin is not worth the paper it’s printed on

There is no viable scenario where Trump is tied, ahead, or within 1%  nationally; and he isn’t approaching or exceeding McCain’s 2008 TX margin. So your statement is saying that Trump can never be tied, ahead, or within 1% of the national popular vote

McCain had a lot more support in the suburbs though. Harris is going to be double digits Biden, and Fort Bend, Williamson, and Hays are gone for Trump. Dallas and Travis are much bluer than they were in 2008. Tarrant is going to be close whereas it was safe R in 2008 and Collin is nowhere as red as it once was. Even if Trump improves in the PV I don't see him recovering much in these places.

Harris is very hispanic. There is no universe trump gets the numbers he did nationally and not improve in Harris. I don't see it flipping but it will not be double digits

This.  In addition, look at all the rural counties that were 65-75% McCain in 2008 but by 2022 voted practically unanimously for Abbott.  Cumulatively, they matter.