2023 Mexico State Elections

[jaichind]

MORENA should win Edomex and PRI should win Coahuila

[jaichind]

PREP for Edomex

https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/prep/estado-de-mexico.html

PREP for Coahuila

https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/prep/coahuila-de-zaragoza.html

[jaichind]

One thing is for sure.  If MORENA does not win Eodmex AMLO will claim fraud.

[jaichind]

Edomex (around 3% in)

MORENA-PT-PVEM   53.2%
PRI-PAN-PRD          46.7%

So far closer than expected


Coahuila (around 4% in)

PRI-PAN-PRD          56.8%
MORENA                20.6%
PT                         14.0% (has MORENA background)
UDC-PVEM              8.6% (has PAN background)

Bigger blowout than expected

So far PRI is outperforming but it is ultra early.

[jaichind]

Edomex (around 88% in)

MORENA-PT-PVEM   54.2%
PRI-PAN-PRD          45.8%

PRI did better than expected but still a solid win by MORENA.  The MORENA candidate, Delfina Gómez Álvarez,  ran in 2017 and lost.  She got her revenge tonight.  She is one of the few MORENA governors that is not a defector of another party (usually PRI or PRD.)


Coahuila (around 93% in)

PRI-PAN-PRD          58.2%
MORENA                22.0%
PT                         13.8% (has MORENA background)
UDC-PVEM              6.0% (has PAN background)

Bigger PRI blowout than expected.  Coahuila is the only state left that PRI has never lost the governorship of.   MORENA's candidate is the same as its candidate in 2017.

[jaichind]

Coahuila also had state legislative elections with PRI-PAN-PRD sweeping all 16 FPTP seats.  The vote per party with around 92% of the vote in shows PRI continues to be strong here

PAN          6.9%
PRI         45.0%
PRD          2.4%
MC           2.1%
UDC         3.3% (former PAN regionist ally)
PVEM        4.6%
PT            8.7%
MORENA  26.9%

Historically the state is PRI vs PAN but with the rise of MORENA, it seems a good part of the old PAN vote has gone over to PRI.

[jaichind]

PRI losing Edomex is good news for MORENA in the short run but good news for PAN in the long run.  With the old PRI fortress Edomex finally falling to MORENA what is left of the rural Edomex PRI machine vote will fall to MORENA in 2024 which makes up for a swing from MORENA to PAN in urban DF. 

2024 will be a fight for survival for both PRI and PAN but especially PRI.  This is why I doubt there will be a PRI-PAN united front in 2024 which should mean a MORENA win.  With PRI losing Edomex I am not sure PRI will have the funds to fight the 2024 national election.  This means that PAN is more likely to emerge from 2024 to become the alternative to MORENA while PRI declines to a third party and then with only regional pockets of influence.

[jaichind]

Map of governors after the 2023 elections.  The PES-ruled state is MORENA all but in name. The opposition now pushed into the North and part of the Yucatan with the rest all controlled by MORENA.

[jaichind]

The 2024 Governors elections will be

Chiapas: Current MORENA
DF: Current MORENA
Guanajuato: Current PAN
Jalisco: Current MC
Morelos: Current PES (backed by MORENA)
Puebla: Current MORENA
Tabasco: Current MORENA
Veracruz: Current MORENA
Yucatán: Current PAN

Frankly, I do not see any of them flipping.  Perhaps there might be some sort of PAN-PRI alliance in DF leading to some sort of urbanite anti-MORENA surge but that seems unlikely in a Presidental election year.

[jaichind]

Is it too early or can we already start a 2024 presidential election thread? Just asking since some MORENA candidates are already resigning for their positions to seek the nomination.

You can start a thread 1 year before the election which would mean you can do it in July 2023

[jaichind]

Massive caller poll for 2024 Prez election

So far a consistently large MORENA lead and I am skeptical that PAN-PRI can even form an alliance. If PRI does not run a candidate and back PAN then PRi as a national party will be finished.