VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when high turnout was good news last year for Dems? For all we know, a bunch of "responsible" GOP voters in NoVA who sat out 2013 because of The Crazy Cooch are showing up this year.

You seriously think Gillespie has a chance in Virginia? What happened to your "It's gone" posts?

But yeah, I'm not reading too much into turnout reports either, honestly.

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

[Adam Griffin]

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Nah, Cuomo will clear 60% in VA and will probably be only 1 of his 2 state wins

[Adam Griffin]

Rain doesn't depress GOP vote share, and it's definitely debatable that it really depresses either side's turnout in the modern day whatsoever; older data suggests a 1-3% net drop in Dem vote. Nevertheless, if rain in heavily-GOP areas is in fact depressing turnout, then why wouldn't it depress the Dem vote in those areas by more than the GOP vote?

[Adam Griffin]

Rain doesn't depress GOP vote share, and it's definitely debatable that it really depresses either side's turnout in the modern day whatsoever; older data suggests a 1-3% net drop in Dem vote. Nevertheless, if rain in heavily-GOP areas is in fact depressing turnout, then why wouldn't it depress the Dem vote in those areas by more than the GOP vote?

So basically it makes Republican counties, more Republican by margin is what you are saying?

That'd be a side-effect, yep.

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[Adam Griffin]

ABANDON ALL HOPE

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Here's your tentative swing map compared to 2013:

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Nominal change in turnout between 2013 and 2017:



Fun fact: in Charlottesville proper, Northam received more votes (13,909) than were cast for all 3 gubernatorial candidates in 2013 (12,494).

Turnout in the city jumped by 31.32% (from 12494 to 16408), giving it the distinction of having the third-largest percentage increase in turnout compared to 2013, besting even high-growth areas. Pulaski County and Lee County beat it in this regard; Pulaski is an off-shoot of Blacksburg and not far from Roanoke and Lee is close to the Tri-Cities area, but neither of these counties have seen any real population growth according to the Census...? So not sure what happened there, but both are relatively small counties and I feel like they're flukes.