NJ-07 GOP sparring heats up

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Fortunately for Lance and Whitman (hell, who are we kidding—fortunately for Lance), Stender's negatives are already high thanks to Mike Ferguson launching $3,000,000 worth of poison her way in 2006.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Fortunately for Lance and Whitman (hell, who are we kidding—fortunately for Lance), Stender's negatives are already high thanks to Mike Ferguson launching $3,000,000 worth of poison her way in 2006.

This may be true, but high negatives don't appear to be an obstacle for Democrats seeking office in N.J., and she did extremely well in '06 even with that.

High Dem negatives should prove a problem in historically Republican NJ-07.  I do know that Lance's internal polling has him ahead of Stender by double digits (Whitman is ahead by single digits), and since Lance is not well known throughout the eastern part of the district, one can only assume that he does well on the basis of Stender's negatives and a simple GOP vote advantage here.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What about the fact that Stender is outraising the Republicans combined?

Well, you also should perhaps note that Stender has not outraised all the Republicans combined, if you also include Mike Ferguson's $1 million plus.  She's had a heck of a lot more time to get money (since Nov. 2006) compared to Whitman and Lance.

About the polls, I doubt Whitman is ahead at all. Most people wouldn't even know who she is. The only way she would be ahead is if someone read a brief biographical statement.

Or it simply goes to show what a basically Republican district this is.

Or, you know, maybe people just correctly associated this person with a last name of Whitman with someone else with the last name of Whitman.

(I'm not sure why it'd pay to fudge the numbers on behalf of Whitman—it wasn't even Whitman's campaign who did the poll.)

But no, you're probably right: Polls are generally wrong when you'd prefer them to be based on your own partisan ideology.  Safe Stender!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you want to discuss polls, which we don't even know exist, then provide the polling company and such. It's not enough to take the word of an alleged untalented former political reporter.

Polling Company: YO MOMMA
Margin of Error: O SNAP U GOT ME AGAIN LULZ

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am a political reporter too

Your Xanga does not count.

BLOGGERS R PPL 2

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bumping our now omnibus NJ-07 thread to highlight Sen. Lance's fundraising prowess, or lack thereof.

He has $80,793 cash on hand.

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/21528/7th-district-fight-stender-lance-starts-virtual-scratch

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.

Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.

Yes, but Torricelli is a prick.  Saxton has already given $25k to county committees, and unlike the Torricelli/Lautenberg dynamic, Saxton actually likes Myers.