43rd British Columbia general election

[lilTommy]

It also bears mentioning that this pollster apparently does not necessarily have the best reputation

Lets see what comes from others, this feels like an outlier so far.
Also it looks like mainstreet hasn't polled BC since the last election? The last poll from July had the NDP at 44% and the CONS at 16% so...

[lilTommy]

It's a little out there to think that half of the Liberals' voter base suddenly forgot the party they like wasn't called the Conservatives.

Or maybe a good many--particularly outside of the immediacy of Greater Vancouver--*have* figured that the party they *want* to like *is* called the BC Conservatives.

Funny the "old" BCLiberals were only the big tent centre-right-anti-NDP option for about 30 years since I think the 1996 election. Before that it was the SoCreds. Centre-right voters usually get their act together and rally behind one party to defeat them all (aka the NDP). The BCU has a real problem right now as they are failing to do that, and we have a fight for the hearts of those voters both BCU and Conservatives polling about 20%. It would be interesting to see if this is indeed an urban/rural split amongst the Centre-Right. That at least wouldn't be too disastrous as the CONS could win the rural and BCU win the more suburban lower mainland. BUT if the vote is fairly spread even across the province, this could lead to an even larger NDP government next time.
As it looks now though, the Conservatives (or maybe the BCU) are playing the roll of the Greens with the NDP; a party that is likely to win a couple seats but will also play spoiler in others they should be winning.

[lilTommy]

BC will have 93 ridings the next election, up from 87.
https://bcebc.ca/2022-final-electoral-division-names-populations-and-deviations/?step=map-all

Some notable changes I saw:

Vernon-Monashee, which was a very close NDP win (36%/35%) is redistributed away into three other ridings. Kootenay-Monashee picks up the eastern half and would still be a strong NDP seat. Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream takes in some of the southwest and is still a strong BCU seat. Interestingly the new Vernon-Lumby would remain NDP by a small but slightly larger amount (37%NDP 34% BCL/BCU).
We now have two fully urban seats that cover Kamloops and Kelowna; Kamloops Centre, which is fully urban and Kamloops-North Thompson, which is mostly rural-suburban, replace the old North and south seats which were “rurban” seats. The NDP comes very close to winning Kamloops Centre but not close enough, would still remain BCU.
Kelowna Centre is formed from three seats; the core portion of the city on the east side of Okanagan Lake is removed from Kelowna West which is now West Kelowna-Peachland (since it gains Peachland from Penticton). The southwest corner of Kelowna-Lake Country is moved into KC, making the new Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream more rural. Kelowna-Mission losses only a small part of its north west. Still BCU country out here
the new Fraser-Nicola, loses territory in the north to Cariboo-Chilcotin (Ashcroft, Cashe Creek, Green Timber Plateau area) , but extends west on the south side of the riding taking in areas from Chilliwack-Kent and Abbotsford-Mission. This actually would turn the seat NDP based on 2020 results (using ridingbuilder as best as I can, i got about 41% NDP, 37% BCL/BCU)

In Vancouver, Van-False Creek is redistributed out into three ridings as well; the new Van-Yaletown now is home to most of the centre-right vote and would be a BCL/BCU seat by about 46% to 39%.
Van-South Granville would be even stronger for the NDP (57%) taking in the southwest part of old Van-False Creek, northern Van-Fairview and a sliver of eastern Van-Point Grey
Van-Little Mountain is made up of areas of 5 ridings, mostly from Van-Fairview (east, south parts) and northern Van-Langara. This would remain NDP (51%)
Vancouver-Langara loses most everything north of 49th but gains some east of Fraser, taking from Van-Fraserview. This makes it safer for BCU by bumping up to about 46%.

The Burnaby-Coquitlam corridor had 9, now has 10 seats, same with Surrey where we also increase from 9-10 seats.
In Surrey, the biggest change would be Surrey-Cloverdale is split basically in half; the western side of HW15 becomes Surrey-Serpentine River, and the east keeps the name Surrey-Cloverdale. Both seats would be NDP.  Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers are redistributed into an east/west alignment (Surrey North and Surrey City Centre now) vs the north/south one currently. Both remain strong NDP seats.
Abbostford/Mission will have 6 seats vs 5; the new Langley-Abbostford in unsurprisingly a BCU seat (about 43%) While the shrunken down Langley-Walnut Grove (formerly Langley East) and Langley-Willowbrook (formerly Langley) have an increase in support for the NDP.

On Vancouver Island, Cowichan Valley shifts considerably north into Nanaimo, losing from Shawnigan Lake south to Malahat area to Juan de fuca-Malahat. Bad news for the Greens who would lose this to the NDP who would have won 45% vs 39 for the Greens.
Juan de fuca-Malahat also gains Metchosin while losing Langford and Highlands. This has a sizeable impact to the NDP, decreasing their vote to, based on 2020, to 52% down from 67% (Horgans seat, the NDP held the seat in the by-election but with only 53%). With most of the Green vote from Cowichan Valley now in Juan de fuca-Malahat, this is going to be one to watch as it could be seen as a Green or NDP seat.
The new Langford-Highlands is a strong NDP seat, again caveat that this used to be Horgans seat so the NDPs numbers are probably inflated.
Nanaimo is split into two seats; the northern portion is now Nanaimo-Lantzville, pulling Lantzville in from Parksville-Qualicum. The southern part is added with Cedar, Harmac and Gabriola island to create Nanaimo-Gabriola. Both are NDP seats. Parksville-Qualicum is eliminated and mostly replaced by Ladysmith-Oceanside, the riding now surrounds the city of Nanaimo from north to south. Would be NDP too.

[lilTommy]

The map came out in April. I remember people freaking out (and rightly so) about that Ladysmith-Oceanside seat. That should be unconstitutional.

The preliminary proposal for Nanaimo-Ladysmith wasn't that much better either, both draws still created this odd encompassing "hugging" riding.

[lilTommy]

Of course, I'm presently guarded about the BCU assessments of some of the Interior seats.  (Langara's another matter)

Agreed, it's better to say it like BCU/CON or Centre-right vote would be favoured in seats. But with this split on the right... phew the NDP can almost be favoured everywhere.

[lilTommy]

It occurs to me that given that the right-wing vote will likely be quite divided, there's a chance that in number of seats the Greens become the largest opposition party, which would be very odd to see.

Greens could feasibly end up on 4 seats or so, whereas each of BCU and the Conservatives could fail to get a significant number- it looks like the only two seats which don't even have a chance of going NDP are Peace River North/Peace River South but everything else is potentially up for grabs?

I believe you are over-estimating the collapse of said vote, with 20% BCU is still comfortably ahead of the greens, especially with things like a well established party machine, tactical voting between both conservative parties and incumbency advantage, they are both likely to win in 5-6 ridings with such polling.

I have to agree, the Greens are polling lower then 2020, the poll here has them -5. Redistribution has hurt Green leader Furstenau by making her seat much more NDP friendly (Cowichan Valley) and she may have a chance in Juan de Fuca-Malahat but again it favours the NDP. The Greens may be relegated to only 1 seat again.
But I do agree there are about a dozen at least seats that will never go NDP I think; even with this 25-20 split among the rightwing parties, these seats will elect a rightwing party.

[lilTommy]

Also: I've looked over the riding redistribution and obviously things are further complicated with the B.C United/B.C Conservative split, but not taking into account either of those, these are the half a dozen ridings from 2020 the NDP should be targeting:

1.Vancouver-Langara
2.Fraser-Nicola
3.Columbia River-Revelstoke
4.Kamloops-North Thompson
5.Skeena
6.Cowichan Valley

Vancouver-Langara is a longtime non NDP riding that has been trending NDP. This same area is the one riding in Vancouver the Conservatives have held federally (at least once) since 1993. I mention that, mainly to mention that the reason I think for this is because Vancouver Langara/South Vancouver has a more suburban feel to it than other parts of Vancouver. The reason for this is because the area used to be a suburb. I read in a book on Richmond, that there was an interurban tram that used to travel between Richmond and the city of South Vancouver (just as there are cities of North Vancouver and West Vancouver, up until, I believe, 1935, there was a city named South Vancouver.)

This area, like much of Greater Vancouver, has been trending NDP provincially, and with Michael Lee dropping back in the Liberal leadership race, it might be more prime for the picking for the NDP.

In the Interior and North, Columbia River-Revelstoke, Skeena and to a lesser degree, Fraser-Nicola have all be historically provincial NDP ridings, that the NDP lost largely due to divisive nomination battles at least somewhat involving the NDP gender and diversity requirements. I can't remember if that was also a factor in the Cowichan Valley riding on Vancouver Island, but it was narrowly held in 2020 by provincial Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau.

Kamloops is, of course, a fairly large city (population approx 100,000) in the Interior that has been historically competitive. This riding had always voted with the government since at least the 1972 NDP up until the 2017 election. Of course, that was only three elections (1972, 1991 and 1996) where it voted for the NDP, but it had usually been competitive. The other Kamloops ridings in 1996 voted B.C Liberal.

Agreed with this, in fact if you look back at my post on the redistribution on the last page the NDP would have won Fraser-Nicola and Cowichan Valley in 2020 under the 2024 boundaries.
In Van-Langara the NDP, even under the new boundaries which increased the BCL margin slightly, only need a swing of i think 2-3% to win the seat.

The issue is the Centre-Right is in deep trouble if they cannot really behind a single vehicle, the NDP can afford to lose 5% even 10% if the CR is split so evenly AND for that to be across BC.

Angus Reid Regionals:

Metro Van:
NDP - 49%
BCU - 17%
GRN - 17%
CON - 15%

Lower Main/Fraser:
NDP - 42%
BCU - 26%
CON - 24%
GRN - 7%

VanIsland:
NDP - 41%
BCU - 22%
GRN - 19%
CON - 17%

North/Interior:
NDP - 38%
CON - 31%
BCU - 24%
GRN - 7% 

Bad news for the BCU; they are not favoured overly so in any region while the CONs are polling fairly ahead of the BCU in the North/Interior. Could we see a 2005 level sweep for the NDP in 2024? probably not that drastic, but I could see the CR combined with 10 seats or so only, and maybe 1 Green.

[lilTommy]

ods of the two right wing parties merging at some point?

Probably 0 before the next election.  Libs/BCU have pride that comes with having formed many past majority governments,  conservatives seemingly have the winds of momentum.  More possible would be voters coalescing into one of the camps when an election starts.

Historically it would probably be over two election cycles. 1991 saw the utter defeat of SoCreds and the emergence of the BCLiberals as the main right-of-centre party. But the SoCreds still ran a campaing in 96 only calling for a unified right vote just before the vote. It worked to some degree but not in the SoCreds favour, the BCL had a slim win of the popular vote but still lost to the NDP 39 to 33.
Right now, we have two battling parties on the right both pulling about the same vote. Neither party is at a point to concede and call for unite the right since no party can really claim they are the best suited. After the next election we will see if either BCU or the CONs come out as a clear winner. BCU has the advantage of seats and being the official opposition but that's not really helping them in the polling. The NDP at +40% and neither right win party over 25% means another big NDP win likely. It will probably take a 91 result to see who folds.
OR the BCU can become of more moderate Liberal-esk party, move to the dead-center and try that route.

[lilTommy]

It's interesting that Saskatchewan is where Canada's first "labour" party breakthrough occurred given how agrarian it was.  BC seemed better positioned for it, given its labor militancy and lack of an agrarian element.  Much has been written about it, of course.  Wheat farmers in Saskatchewan were an unusual constituency to turn to social democracy, but economic conditions made them open to radicalism.  One thing I read that was quite interesting was how pro-worker the farm organization was in Saskatchewan, which was apparently led by British industrial workers who took up farming.  In Alberta and Manitoba, agrarian and labor interests were antagonistic.  The grain growers group in Manitoba was hostile to the Winnipeg General Strike.

In 1952 the CCF in BC almost became the largest party, only 1 seat less the SoCreds, 18 vs 19. They still wouldn't have formed government since the Liberals had been in a coalition prior to that with the SoCreds. Funny enough the SoCreds governed with the support of the 1 Labour MLA. The CCF wouldn't come that close again until they were the NDP in 72 when they won.

In Ontario in 1943 the CCF blew up into the official opposition and was almost the largest party, 34 seats vs the new PCs with 38.  I think that was more of an anti-liberal reaction since the Liberals lost government then.

[lilTommy]

The CCF was an alliance of agrarian and labor interests.  The transition to the NDP occurred in the 1960s which strengthened institutional ties with unions but also tried to become more of a party for "liberally minded Canadians."  The hope was it would displace the Liberals but that never occurred. 

They came tantalisingly close in 2011, of course. I wonder if a bit of a collective depression has taken hold of the party since that opportunity slipped away.

My impression; depression? no, lamentation? ya more so. It's not that the opportunity slipped us, within the NDP it is more the loss of Jack Layton then the loss of forming government. Because I think many in the party thought 2015 with Layton as leader would be the real "our time" in government. 2011 although close to winning was a shock for the party to gain so many seats and novice MPs, so this would be the party's time to show they could be the government in waiting, and 2015 was a change election, just one the Liberals were able to capitalize on.

[lilTommy]

Furstenau's move to Victoria -Beacon Hill does not seem to make sense? maybe the Greens are sensing something in the Capital but that just doesn't seem like a shift is happening. Yes the new Cowichan Valley is more NDP friendly but it makes more sense for the Green leader to move to Juan de fuca-Malahat. No John Horgan and it now pulls in more Green polls around Malahat.

I think posters here are right, the Lower mainland will not vote BCC if they stick to social conservativism, and will instead favour a more moderate centre-right United BUT... there may be enough rightwing voters who shift and for the NDP to win all but about 3 seats (I still think Van-Quilchena will stay BCU, Delta South, West Van-Capilano). AND I'm giving the Greens West Van-Sea to Sky. I think there are more right-leaning voters in Abbostford to split the vote and for the NDP to gain those seats.
With the right split; I can only see Kootenay-Rookies, both Prince George, both Peace River, Nechako Lakes, 3 Kelowna seats (Kelowna Centre going NDP), Salmon Arm-Shuswap and maybe Kamloops-North Thompson (Kamloops Centre going NDP).

That's 13 seats for United and CONS, Greens 2; I think that is best case with the spilt we see going on.

[lilTommy]

So far we have 15 MLAs who are not running for re-election:
- 5 NDP
Katrina Chen; Burnaby-Lougheed
George Heyman; Vancouver-Fairview
Selina Robinson; Coquitlam-Maillardville (no surprise there with the recent controversy)
Doug Routley; Nanaimo-North Cowichan
Nicholas Simons; Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Routley and Simons are 2005 crew so it's almost 20 years elected for them

- 10 BCU
Dan Ashton; Penticton
Doug Clovechok; Columbia River-Revelstoke
Mike de Jong; Abbotsford West (1994! going out at 30 years not bad)
Karin Kirkpatrick; West Vancouver-Capilano
Greg Kyllo; Shuswap
Norm Letnick; Kelowna-Lake Country   
Mike Morris; Prince George-Mackenzie
Ellis Ross; Skeena
Ben Stewart; Kelowna West
Jordan Sturdy; West Vancouver-Sea to Sky


Nomination news:
NDP
> Vancouver-Little Mountain (new seat): looks like we have current City Councillor Christine Boyle running against former City Councillor Andrea Reimer for the NDP nomination here.

> Powell River-Sunshine Coast; 5! people are running for the nomination
-Amanda Amaral, current School District Trustees chair
-Randene Neill, former Global BC journalist
-Jäger Rosenberg, Secondary School student and air cadet;
-Jacquie Shields, president of the Sunshine Coast Teachers Association;
-Darnelda Siegers, previous mayor of Sechelt and previous Sunshine Coast Regional District chair.

>West Vanouver-Sea-to-Sky: Whistler Councillor Jen Ford has announced.

[lilTommy]

A big weakness for the BC Cons is that they are just coasting on a generic party brand right now . Their leader is totally unknown and that probably helps because he is very unappealing and the more people see John Rustad they less they will like him. He is not be any stretch of the imagination someone anyone can picture as premier

I absolutely think that is the case here; and if i'm not mistaken before the last two elections the BCC were polling much higher then the vote they actually ended up getting.
The problem is that this has exposed a real division within the free-market right in BC; the right-wing is parking their vote with the BCC while the more right-of-centre are mostly sticking to the BCU. The true centre has moved to the NDP. Ring-wing voters don't seem to be very happy at this moment with the BCU, but come the actual election that may change, especially if Rustad is not well liked and the BCU can pull the right back into their camp. OR what might happen is a split within the free-market right with the BCC winning/holding traditionally conservative rural seats and the BCU holding (maybe!) more urban/wealthy right-leaning seats. The issue is that the right can't afford any split, since that will lead to the NDP picking up even more seats with wins in the 30% range, that's all it will take if the right is split.