Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LOL

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No one on here will ever be happy with this polling orginization if they do not have Hillary leading by 30.

Seriously, if you need bogus numbers ....

[Holmes]

"Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Overtime Politics polls entering the US Election Atlas until our forum's representatives can figure out what is going on."

And we will take its oil.

[Former Democrat]

No numbers for the GOP race?

[This account no longer in use.]

No numbers for the GOP race?

They're currently unskewing the polls.

[weixiaobao]

They posted that few hours ago. 

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/

all your need.

[This account no longer in use.]

Results for Michigan Republicans:

Trump - 33%
Rubio - 18%
Cruz - 17%
Carson - 7%
Bush - 5%
Fiorina - 3%
Christie - 3%
Paul - 3%
Kasich - 1%

Trump led with both males and females, although he had a much bigger lead with males. Rubio led with 18-30, Trump had a major lead with every other age demographic. Trump led in all racial demographics except Asians, where he tied with Rubio, and Hispanics, where Rubio got over 50%. Ted Cruz led among Republicans with an income under $10,000; Trump led every other income group.

[JerryArkansas]

No one on here will ever be happy with this polling orginization if they do not have Hillary leading by 30.

Do you ing realize Adam has been supporting Sanders this whole time.  This damn poll is trash.  If you fail to see that through you bias then that is your stupidity.

[A Perez]

They posted that few hours ago. 

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/

all your need.

Hispanics are 5% of Michigan population. Subtract the undocumented and documented non-citizens, and you get maybe 3% registered voters. Assume that not all Hispanics who are registered are LIKELY voters and you get 2%.

In conclusion, it is possible that Overtime polled about 10 Hispanics. But they won't tell us how many.

[The Other Castro]

@Adam Griffin

I emailed the site about what you had mentioned, and I got this response:

I double checked the spreadsheet and it does appear as though there is an error in one of the formulas on the Democratic side. The Republican poll doesn't have the error. I'll be posting the updated information shortly.

Thank you for bringing it to my attention.

- Fred

[This account no longer in use.]

I think the Republican poll might be legit. My guess is that they polled 26 Hispanics, about 12 Asians, and 8 "Native American/Other"s, judging from the percentage numbers.

[Adam Griffin]

I think the Republican poll might be legit. My guess is that they polled 26 Hispanics, about 12 Asians, and 8 "Native American/Other"s, judging from the percentage numbers.

Out of the 396 polled, that suggests 2% Nat/Other, 3% Asian, and 6.6% Hispanic, which doesn't really sound too far from Michigan demographics.

For a Republican primary, though, it's way off. Hell, even for the general election, it's way off, as the notion that both Latinos and Asians alike do not comprise anywhere nearly the same share of the electorate as they do of the population (for Latinos, it's about 40%; for Asians, about 50%). In reality, the R primary poll should be anywhere from 96-98% white in Michigan.

@Adam Griffin

I emailed the site about what you had mentioned, and I got this response:

I double checked the spreadsheet and it does appear as though there is an error in one of the formulas on the Democratic side. The Republican poll doesn't have the error. I'll be posting the updated information shortly.

Thank you for bringing it to my attention.

- Fred

And see, this is just another one of those "oops - let me quickly fix/change that" moments. I'm still wholly convinced he's just plopping his own numbers down in a spreadsheet.

[Mr. Morden]

For a Republican primary, though, it's way off. Hell, even for the general election, it's way off, as the notion that both Latinos and Asians alike do not comprise anywhere nearly the same share of the electorate as they do of the population (for Latinos, it's about 40%; for Asians, about 50%). In reality, the R primary poll should be anywhere from 96-98% white in Michigan.

Here's the racial breakdown from the 2012 Republican primary exit poll in Michigan:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/michigan/exit-polls

white 92%
Hispanic 3%
black 2%
Asian 2%
other 1%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Updated with new numbers. Doesn't make it look much better though.

These demographic numbers don't exactly vouch for these polls being accurate:

Vote by Race:

White: Sanders 43/41
Black: Clinton 62/32 (?!?!?!?)
Latino: Clinton 49/37 (HUH?)
Asian: Clinton 49/43 (HUH?)
Other: 44/44 Tie

Vote by Age:

18-30: 46-43 Sanders
31-45: 49-35 Clinton
46-59: 46-40 Clinton ()
60+: 49-41 Clinton ()

Gender at least seems okay - Clinton is tied at 43 with Men, leads 52/38 with Women.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The next poll is in Florida, where we have a significant number of previous polls to compare it to for accuracy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary now has 49% with Asians and Native Americans/Other. For her to be at least 48.5% but under 50% that requires at least 35 of each. Still too high.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary now has 49% with Asians and Native Americans/Other. For her to be at least 48.5% but under 50% that requires at least 35 of each. Still too high.

I think there's a typographical error in the "Nat Am/Other" category, as 12% undecided (which it lists there) is not possible with both Hillary and Sanders at 49%. My guesstimate for now is to take the undecided equally away from Hillary and Sanders, which puts it at the 44-44 tie I listed above. As for the Asian category, I have no idea.

[The Other Castro]

Hillary now has 49% with Asians and Native Americans/Other. For her to be at least 48.5% but under 50% that requires at least 35 of each. Still too high.

I think there's a typographical error in the "Nat Am/Other" category, as 12% undecided (which it lists there) is not possible with both Hillary and Sanders at 49%. My guesstimate for now is to take the undecided equally away from Hillary and Sanders, which puts it at the 44-44 tie I listed above. As for the Asian category, I have no idea.

At least 8.6% of the respondents would have to be Asian for the numbers to make sense, and I'm not from Michigan or anything but I can guarantee you it is not over 8% Asian.

[emailking]

And see, this is just another one of those "oops - let me quickly fix/change that" moments. I'm still wholly convinced he's just plopping his own numbers down in a spreadsheet.

Agree that seems to be the case. His "error", to me at least, appears to be a lot worse than what 538 used to out Strategic Vision.

[bigedlb]

Florida due today.  Virginia Sat, and IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE next week

[Holmes]

I can only guess at how close Sanders is to Clinton in their Florida poll. Are old white Jews #FeelingtheBern?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-28-points-in-florida-59-31/

Hillary Clinton- 256 – 59%
Bernie Sanders – 136 – 31%
Martin O’Malley – 10 – 2%
Undecided – 33 – 8%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I mean, those headline numbers make sense, but that doesn't mean I don't think the numbers are pure bull****.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Demographic numbers look pretty reasonable this time. The topline numbers are closer than what Florida Atlantic put out in November  (66/22) but don't seem implausible. I'll decide whether to include it on my map later, after we see the Republican numbers.

[Eraserhead]

Demographic numbers look pretty reasonable this time. The topline numbers are closer than what Florida Atlantic put out in November  (66/22) but don't seem implausible. I'll decide whether to include it on my map later, after we see the Republican numbers.

Looks like he's getting better at faking it!