Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[King]

If they really want it to be quick, it's simple:

1. Age
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Income
5. Democratic or Republican primary?
6. Their actual candidate choice

6 questions. Should be able to be finished rather quickly.

Yeah, but then people start expecting you to make complex tables breaking everything down along demographic lines - which is work.

If you know how to use Excel it's not.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, Rand tops Jeb.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Overtime Politics is set to release their Vermont polling today, it could be a good test to see if they are super pro-Bernie or not, if they have Bernie with a narrow lead or even a Hillary lead in VT then we will see they are not biased towards him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Overtime Politics is set to release their Vermont polling today, it could be a good test to see if they are super pro-Bernie or not, if they have Bernie with a narrow lead or even a Hillary lead in VT then we will see they are not biased towards him.

I'd also like to see some GOP polls from VT.

[Eraserhead]

Overtime Politics is set to release their Vermont polling today, it could be a good test to see if they are super pro-Bernie or not, if they have Bernie with a narrow lead or even a Hillary lead in VT then we will see they are not biased towards him.

All that would prove is that they're joke pollster. Bernie probably has a massive lead in Vermont.

[mds32]

Overtime Politics is set to release their Vermont polling today, it could be a good test to see if they are super pro-Bernie or not, if they have Bernie with a narrow lead or even a Hillary lead in VT then we will see they are not biased towards him.

All that would prove is that they're joke pollster. Bernie probably has a massive lead in Vermont.

Right that would just prove they are not good at all. If Sanders is still in the race VT is almost a sure lock for him. Especially since it is voting "early" in the nomination process.

[mds32]

Overtime Politics is set to release their Vermont polling today, it could be a good test to see if they are super pro-Bernie or not, if they have Bernie with a narrow lead or even a Hillary lead in VT then we will see they are not biased towards him.

I'd also like to see some GOP polls from VT.

I don't know if you want them from this company. I could imagine Trump or Rubio leading a Vermont GOP poll.

[Likely Voter]

The difference between this and other questionable pollsters, is that there is a debate over whether this is actually a pollster at all.

It doesn't matter what numbers they release, if they seem reasonable or not. There is no evidence that this is a real polling company. At best it is some part-time amateur using non-scientific means. It is also entirely possible it is just some guy making it up.

Until there is evidence that this company is legit, I see no reason to post any of their data and certainly not to enter their data into the system. But if it must be posted, then a megathread is fine too.

[Tender Branson]

All previous polls merged into this one, because it really is a dubious pollster ...

[mds32]

All previous polls merged into this one, because it really is a dubious pollster ...

Wow I was wondering how the thread got so big all of the sudden! Thanks it clears up the rest of the page some for the other companies.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Trump could win a majority of the vote here on Super Tuesday.

I would argue this, but unfortunately, I believe my state is just dumb enough to get a Trump win.

Wait do you really support Gilmore? I'm friends with him on Facebook lol. Have never actually met or seen a real Gilmore supporter online, though.

[Eraserhead]

I guess their Vermont "polls" will be released shortly.

[weixiaobao]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

[mds32]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

Believable, but with no other demographic questions I truly have to wonder.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

Last poll in Vermont (Castleton) was 65-14 Sanders. So this 63-29 result appears to indicate undecideds are breaking heavily towards Clinton. Troubling.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-leads-rubio-32-21-in-vermont/

Donald Trump – 114 – 32%
Marco Rubio – 75 – 21%
Ted Cruz – 53 – 15%
Ben Carson – 28 – 8%
Jeb Bush – 18 – 5%
Rand Paul – 14 – 4%
Carly Fiorina – 7 – 2%
Chris Christie – 5 – 1%
John Kasich – 4 – 1%
Other – 7 – 2%
Undecided – 32 – 9%

[mds32]

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-leads-rubio-32-21-in-vermont/

Donald Trump – 114 – 32%
Marco Rubio – 75 – 21%
Ted Cruz – 53 – 15%
Ben Carson – 28 – 8%
Jeb Bush – 18 – 5%
Rand Paul – 14 – 4%
Carly Fiorina – 7 – 2%
Chris Christie – 5 – 1%
John Kasich – 4 – 1%
Other – 7 – 2%
Undecided – 32 – 9%

It would be amazing to see what would happen if they had questions with gender/age and such. Perhaps the results would be even more accurate. Here we actually see the evidence that the Establishment candidates are keeping Rubio back some in NH.

In NH Rubio has a organized campaign running and he is averaging around 12-14%. If Rubio had a organized machine running in VT without the other "establishment" candidates in the race Rubio could be tied up or even lead Trump in at least this state.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

Last poll in Vermont (Castleton) was 65-14 Sanders. So this 63-29 result appears to indicate undecideds are breaking heavily towards Clinton. Troubling.

Haha. Well if it's a Bernie supporter just making up numbers, they certainly could have pushed the envelope more here and in Iowa. But maybe it's part of the vast right-wing conspiracy against Hillary.

As for the Republican side, it seems like too many lanes are closed over the Connecticut River, his support seems to be stuck in some traffic study.

[Eraserhead]

dem - vt http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec24-27DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Vermont.pdf

Last poll in Vermont (Castleton) was 65-14 Sanders. So this 63-29 result appears to indicate undecideds are breaking heavily towards Clinton. Troubling.

That Castleton poll was totally bizarre and who even knows if this one here is a real poll. Plus, directly comparing results from different pollsters, especially when said polls were done months and months apart, is not a good idea.

So basically, who knows? I just feel safe in assuming that Sanders has a huge lead here because he's incredibly popular in the state that he represents in the US Senate

[Mr. Morden]

At best it is some part-time amateur using non-scientific means. It is also entirely possible it is just some guy making it up.

I don't know if not correcting for demographics technically puts one in the "non-scientific" category.  Seems more like bad science than non-science.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this pollster turns out to be accurate, then it will mean that demographic weighting is unncessary.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's no guarantee they'll weight their data based on it, but it at least will give us a better sense of whether their numbers are even close to being accurate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If this pollster turns out to be accurate, then it will mean that demographic weighting is unncessary.

Demographic weighting can help you be a more reliable pollster, but it's not necessary.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/ Overtime Politics just announced they will be asking and including demographic info now.

We did it Atlas!

131 emails, so it probably was't just Atlas, unless one of you e-mailed him 100 times.