Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Lachi]

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?

I think that it's slightly more likely than not, but I'd put it at 55-60%

[Lachi]

If any leader on the conservative right gets in, Labor could actually get in the high 90s imo. 100 seats won't happen, although if Dutton ever become leader, you never know...

[Lachi]

The Aust. Conservatives are set to lose all representation in South Australia, after Dennis Hood has defected to the SA Liberal Party, leaving just 1 MLC in Victoria, and Sen. Cory Bernadi, with Robert Brokenshire almost certain to lose his seat in the SA LC.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-26/australian-conservatives-mp-dennis-hood-joins-liberals/9586822

[Lachi]

Meanwhile in the Victorian Parliament, a sick day pulled by Aust. Conservatives MLC Rachel Carling-Jenkins has allowed Labor to push it's CFA overhaul bill through the second reading.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/crossbencher-s-sickie-sees-firey-overhaul-inch-closer-to-decisive-vote-20180328-p4z6lr.html

[Lachi]

In Victoria's upper house again. 2 Liberal MLCs bent the voting rules today to vote down the Labor Govt's Fire services overhaul bill. These 2 MLCs have said that they could not vote or be present in the chamber today because of "religious beliefs" have just showed up anyway and voted. Both the government and the crossbench went into uproar over it.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-fire-service-rejig-goes-pear-shaped-after-paired-pair-reappear-20180330-p4z73j.html

[Lachi]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-was-my-decision-matthew-guy-defends-breaking-of-pair-deal-20180403-p4z7ia.html

Polling collapse inevitable.

[Lachi]

It's really weir to see an opposition party win government despite having a swing against it. Only in SA I guess.

[Lachi]

The proposed redistributions for the ACT and Victoria have been released, and under the new maps, would wipe out the government's majority, with Labor notionally picking up 3 seats, 2 new seats, 1 existing seat.

One new seat has been created in Victoria and a new seat in the ACT, bring them up to 38 and 3 respectively. This, along with the SA redistribution next Friday eliminating a seat there will raise the size of the HoR to 151 members.

VIC maps:
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2017/vic/proposed-report/index.htm

ACT maps:
http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2017/act/proposed-report/index.htm

[Lachi]

VIC Major Changes:
New seat created in the NW suburbs of Melbourne, named Fraser, after the Fmr. PM Malcolm Fraser.
4 seats have had name changes:
-Corangamite changed to Cox
-Murray changed to Nicholls
-McMillan changed to Monash
-Melbourne Ports changed to Macnamara

Substantial boundary changes have changed the margins of many seats, flipping the seat of Dunkley, centred around Frankston, notionally Labor with a 2PP of 51.0, with the seat of Cox now on a margin, depending on the method used, of LIB 50.02% to LAB 50.1%.

Macnamara is now looking much better for the greens in 2019, they are now only 2.35% behind on primary, and with Danby being a very unpopular member, could see that seat flip in 2019 even if Labor is having a good night. Labor might want to think about ditching him in favor of a progressive candidate if they want to hold this seat in the future.

[Lachi]

You got Nicholls and Murray the wrong way, Murray is being renamed to Nicholls, not the other way around.

Also, I feel sorry for the person who becomes the member for Cox at the next election. hehe

[Lachi]

This came up on my Facebook just now:

NXT is to be renamed to Centre Alliance.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-10/nick-xenophons-party-drops-his-name/9636598

[Lachi]

If this ends up going through at the Vic. Liberal meeting next month, Labor has won the November election in a landslide.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-under-pressure-to-allow-gay-conversion-therapy-for-kids-20180414-p4z9lc.html

[Lachi]

Just pointing out that if it went ahead, it would actually be a re-legalization of conversion therapy, it has currently been banned for the last 2-3 years.

[Lachi]

Is CNN Fake News?

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/16/health/australia-flesh-eating-ulcer-intl/index.html

WTF? Since when have we had a flesh eating bacteria taking over the country?

CNN is just a marketing agency for globalist fantasy.

You cannot publish a story about this from the USA when no one in Australia knows what you are talking about.

It was certainly in the news last night. You might not know about it though, since you probably don't get the Melbourne news.

[Lachi]

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/20-000-lashes-for-murder-liberal-party-branch-to-debate-proposal-for-corporal-punishment-20180507-p4zdup.html

WHAT THE ACTUAL FK!!!

[Lachi]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this, but unfortunately Australia's 22 year streak of no mass shootings has come to an end, with 7 people; 4 children, 3 adults (including the gunman, who shot himself), were killed on a rural property in the Margaret River region of Western Australia a couple of days ago.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/seven-people-found-dead-in-margaret-river-murder-suicide/9751482

[Lachi]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/court-ruling-a-resounding-defeat-for-the-liberal-party-20180614-p4zlhw.html

Kroger now has control of only 25% of his 70 million dollar investment fund, which essentially means 52.5 million dollars of campaign funding for the Vic Liberals is now gone and cannot be used in the November election campaign.

Considering how cash strapped the Liberals are in Victoria already, and how toxicly unpopular Matthew Guy is, this could end up being a near fatal blow for their campaign, in a year they are already expected to lose in anyway.

[Lachi]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

Individual seat polling has historically been complete trash anyway.

[Lachi]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

Individual seat polling has historically been complete trash anyway.

Most certainly, however terrible polls are better than no polls.

true...

[Lachi]

I don't think Downer will won Mayo though, she's been corrupted through and through working for the IPA, and the voters will see that.

[Lachi]

When there are 8 different parties on the senate crossbench..

[Lachi]

When there are 8 different parties on the senate crossbench..

At least we'll have a good spring cleaning in 2019.

Probably, especially with a proper democratic voting system in the Senate, givng the voter the choice rather than the parties.

[Lachi]

The message that is being given off by the Libs right now seems to be that they are really just giving up all hope of winning the next election, yet still seem to want to make it worse for them.

[Lachi]

Here's the old, draft and new margins for the new seats in victoria, sourced from the tally room.

(I will point out, some margins are inflated due to some reason, for instance, the seat of Nicholls (formerly Murray) is inflated as both the Liberals and National ran there in 2016. On a normal NAT vs LAB race, it'd be around 18-19%, not 22%

[Lachi]

And here is the map (using the draft map, as the actual maps of the final boundaries have not been released, but they will be almost exactly the same anyway)