Russian legislative "elections", 2007

[Middle-aged Europe]

'election' in 5 days.

2 last opinion polls
VTSIOM
United Russia  62.1% 313 seats (+90)
Communist Party 12.2% 62 seats (+10)
Liberal Democratic Party 8% 40 seats (+4)
Fair Russia 7% 35 seats (+35)
Yabloko 2.4% (-4)
Agrarian Party 2.4% (-2)
SPS 1.8% (-3)
Patriots of Russia 1.5%
Civil Force 1.2%
Democratic Party 0.8%
Party of Social Justice 0.7%
Others (- all the rest)

Levada

United Russia 67%
Communist Party 14%
Liberal Democratic Party 6%
Fair Russia 4%
Agrarian Party 3%
Yabloko 2%
SPS 1%
Civil Force 1%
Democratic Party of Russia <1%
Party of Social Justice <1%
Patriots of Russia <1%

Oh boy...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Go communists! Ugh.


Russia: Voting for the least of four evils.

[Middle-aged Europe]

People should vote for Yabloko, not the KPRF. Neither have any chance of winning, but Yabloko is the saner opposition than a bunch of Stalin-lovers.

At the least the commies will win some seats in the Duma... Yabloko will pretty much win nothing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There are no districts anymore in this election.

Yes, and the other part of Putin's "election reform" was to turn the 5% threshold into a 7% threshold... which pretty much signed the death warrant for Yabloko and the Union of Rightest Forces.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wrong: http://www.russiatoday.ru/election/news/17860

Haha.

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Well, maybe she was torn between voting for United Russia and Fair Russia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Communists are doing their "own" count.

Good luck with that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Isn't Iron Vlad going to be a power behind the throne figure, considering he's poised to be Russia's new Prime Minister? And don't they have most of the power, instead of the President? That's what I've heard.

No, the president is the most powerful government position in Russia... by far.

Under Yeltsin, and partially under Putin too, the PM was practically a "hire-and-fire" position. In Yeltsin's final years and months of his presidency he had a new prime minister every two months or so (which also had something to do with the fact that he was looking for a successor, he finally settled with Putin then). In theory, Putin also had the choice of staying prime minister in 2000. He was merely Acting President after Yeltsin's resignation and never obliged to run for president himself in the following elections. But he decided to pick the better job.

So, the question is: If Putin will be Russia's next prime minister, who will he "install" as president and will he be able to control this president from the PM position, which is officially a very weak one. So the question of informal power will play a great role in such scenario.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I had heard he was planning on greatly increasing the power of the PM before he left office next year. And isn't he backing some random schmuck for President who'd basically make the perfect puppet? I think we've figured out his little plan.

1. So far Putin hasn't officially backed someone for the presidency. Yesterday, I read somewhere that "United Russia" is planning to endorse a presidential candidate on December 17. In the last weeks and months, most bets were on current PM Zubkov, who was a totally unknown and obscure figure until he was appointed prime minister by Putin a few months ago. With 66 years, Zubkov is also considered to be relatively old (which actually makes it more likely for him to be Putin's stooge/successor... weird country).

2. I think "United Russia" has ruled out any plans to change the consitutiton yesterday... which would include increasing the powers of the PM.

3. Then again, Putin and "United Russia" have often changed their minds or made surprise announcements in the past (such as Putin's announcement that he would run for the Duma as "United Russia's" top candidate). So everything I just wrote could not come true as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I had heard he was planning on greatly increasing the power of the PM before he left office next year. And isn't he backing some random schmuck for President who'd basically make the perfect puppet? I think we've figured out his little plan.

1. So far Putin hasn't officially backed someone for the presidency. Yesterday, I read somewhere that "United Russia" is planning to endorse a presidential candidate on December 17. In the last weeks and months, most bets were on current PM Zubkov, who was a totally unknown and obscure figure until he was appointed prime minister by Putin a few months ago. With 66 years, Zubkov is also considered to be relatively old (which actually makes it more likely for him to be Putin's stooge/successor... weird country).

Yea, that's the guy I was thinking of.

Yes, but prior to Zubkov's rather surprising ascension to the premiership, everyone had assumed that either Ivanov or Medvedev would become Putin's succesor. So, Zubkov will become Russia's next president... unless Putin changes his mind again. Assessing what Russia's current leadership has in mind is almost as hard as during the old Soviet days.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sarkozy congratulates Putin on election victory:

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/updates.asp?id=33282

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20071204/tpl-uk-russia-vote-eu-87aac06_1.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Heard a new rumour concerning Putin's political future today: Russia and Belarus will form a union soon and Putin becomes the leader of that new entity.

Sounds a bit far-fetched but this is what was reported in some German newspapers today.