2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Devils30]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

[Tekken_Guy]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

[CookieDamage]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

Bingo, Malinowski is easily the most toxic out of Sherrill, Kim, and even Gottheimer. Although Gottheimer may be the slimiest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

Bingo, Malinowski is easily the most toxic out of Sherrill, Kim, and even Gottheimer. Although Gottheimer may be the slimiest.

Which is the strongest electoral performer of them all? Kim, then Gottheimer?

[Devils30]

It won't be 10-2 in a year like 2021 but that isn't the point. Dems need as many winnable seats as possible in a D+0 type of election.

NJ-7 also barely swung at all from 2017-21 while the rest of the state swung sharply right. Not sure Malinowski is the one to throw under.

There are a lot of factors working against Malinowski. He was the worst performing of the four swing district Dems in the state, even though his district was Biden’s best of the four. His opponent is the outgoing Senate Minority Leader who’s a household name in his state and sits in a very Democratic State Senate district. He lives in a very Republican part of his district, which is not the case for the other Democrats in the delegation. And, he is being investigated for ethic issues.

Bingo, Malinowski is easily the most toxic out of Sherrill, Kim, and even Gottheimer. Although Gottheimer may be the slimiest.

Malinowski is the worst of the group but there is a way to keep 10-2 and basically get him out anyway. If you add Hunterdon to NJ-12 he can choose a primary with a more liberal Dem or risk losing a more Union/Somerset and western Essex based NJ-7 primary. Best case for Dems is putting Hunterdon and Warren with Mercer/Middlesex in a blue leaning 12th. No reason to concede the 10-2 with this tiebreaker.

[kwabbit]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

5, 6, and 11 are more Likely D than Safe D IMO. At least in 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

I’m pretty sure that’d be a hard pass. 

[Tintrlvr]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

[kwabbit]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

The key for Kim is getting rid of most or all of Ocean county. 

[kwabbit]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

The key for Kim is getting rid of most or all of Ocean county. 

Yeah Ocean is both hyper R and doesn’t really have any connection to Burlington. Burlington + Mercer is more intuitive but Burlington is just an inconveniently placed county.

[lfromnj]

Kim doesn't need Mercer. He just needs to cross over into swingy but R trending SW jersey for a Clinton +11 district.  A light dem trend in Burlington should be able to hold Kim steady for most of the decade. Maybe Norcross might be willing to give him a bit more as well although I don't see him dropping below Clinton +20.

[Tintrlvr]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

[kwabbit]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

This is completely predicated on Watson Coleman retiring as I said in the initial post. It’s a dumb map if she’s not, but from what I’ve read she is expected to. Then Kim gets to occupy the safe 12th. The idea of the map is that every incumbent who plans to run in 2022 bar Malinowski gets a safe seat.

[Devils30]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

But you left him with no district at all. Norcross is in the Camden district and Watson Coleman is in the Trenton district.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

From a fairness perspective, perhaps, but the Democrats aren't going to accept eliminating Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski.

This is completely predicated on Watson Coleman retiring as I said in the initial post. It’s a dumb map if she’s not, but from what I’ve read she is expected to. Then Kim gets to occupy the safe 12th. The idea of the map is that every incumbent who plans to run in 2022 bar Malinowski gets a safe seat.

No chance the Ds settle for anything less than 9-3. And unpacking 12 helps them take advantage of trends.

[patzer]

My proposal: an incumbent protection map.

DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e83ff774-6f2a-4508-8f63-b50b47ba4614

By 2012-18 average, every district here is at least +16, except for the 12th which is D+11 (couldn't get it bluer without making it ugly).



Some incumbents' districts are pretty drastically changed (most noticeably the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 12th), but as far as I can tell all incumbents are left with safe districts with their residences staying in their district.

[Brittain33]

I don’t think I’ve seen someone put Chris Smith in the northwest R pack before. Very creative.

[Tintrlvr]

Since there's no road connectivity between the two halves of NJ-02 on your map, you might as well drop the pretense of any connectivity other than water connectivity around Atlantic City. That might be able to get you another point in NJ-12.

There are also some Democratic precincts left in NJ-4 that could be freed into NJ-12.

Overall very creative map, though. Never seen Chris Smith pushed northward instead of eastward. Realistically the Democrats would probably just screw him and put him in NJ-12, though, which makes their whole task much easier.

[Devils30]

Since there's no road connectivity between the two halves of NJ-02 on your map, you might as well drop the pretense of any connectivity other than water connectivity around Atlantic City. That might be able to get you another point in NJ-12.

There are also some Democratic precincts left in NJ-4 that could be freed into NJ-12.

Overall very creative map, though. Never seen Chris Smith pushed northward instead of eastward. Realistically the Democrats would probably just screw him and put him in NJ-12, though, which makes their whole task much easier.

It is so easy to draw an NJ-12 with Warren, Hunterdon, Mercer with a few towns in Somerset or Middlesex that is Clinton +15/Biden +20 territory. Screwing Malinowski by chopping the current NJ-7 into four pieces probably makes more sense than just giving away a Dem trending seat to the GOP.

[CookieDamage]

Tried to keep incumbent homes in their districts. I've created, again, two GOP vote sinks, one on the shore and the other in the NW.

Pascrell and Sires are grouped together. Since Pascrell is 84, I can't imagine this being too much of an issue.

JVD's district is roughly Clinton +11.

[CookieDamage]

11-1 DEM gerrymander. Every blue seat is at least Clinton +12. I did not pay attention to incumbent home locations

[Suburbia]

Most American commoners don't even know what gerrymandering is.

Democrats should not even campaign on "End Gerrymandering", the average Joe doesn't even know what the hell that means.

The political junkies and political insiders know what that is, it is too complex for the commoner to understand.

NJ Dems should go for the jugular, and ax Smith and Van Drew; Smith has been in office for 40 years without any accomplishments, Van Drew is a weasel and he could have remained a conservative Democrat from South Jersey like he was in the Legislature.

Make it a all Democratic coalition, put some parts of Vin Gopal's hometown in Smith's district and that makes it easier for a Middlesex Democrat from New Brunswick or South Amboy to replace Pallone or so.....if you add Holmdel to Pallone's district, that would make it more red.

[Devils30]

Most American commoners don't even know what gerrymandering is.

Democrats should not even campaign on "End Gerrymandering", the average Joe doesn't even know what the hell that means.

The political junkies and political insiders know what that is, it is too complex for the commoner to understand.

NJ Dems should go for the jugular, and ax Smith and Van Drew; Smith has been in office for 40 years without any accomplishments, Van Drew is a weasel and he could have remained a conservative Democrat from South Jersey like he was in the Legislature.

Make it a all Democratic coalition, put some parts of Vin Gopal's hometown in Smith's district and that makes it easier for a Middlesex Democrat from New Brunswick or South Amboy to replace Pallone or so.....if you add Holmdel to Pallone's district, that would make it more red.

A 12-0 D map in NJ could easily become a dummymander and is impossible to draw without violating the VRA. 11-1 is a stretch and 10-2 is the best they can expect from the commission.

[Suburbia]

Most American commoners don't even know what gerrymandering is.

Democrats should not even campaign on "End Gerrymandering", the average Joe doesn't even know what the hell that means.

The political junkies and political insiders know what that is, it is too complex for the commoner to understand.

NJ Dems should go for the jugular, and ax Smith and Van Drew; Smith has been in office for 40 years without any accomplishments, Van Drew is a weasel and he could have remained a conservative Democrat from South Jersey like he was in the Legislature.

Make it a all Democratic coalition, put some parts of Vin Gopal's hometown in Smith's district and that makes it easier for a Middlesex Democrat from New Brunswick or South Amboy to replace Pallone or so.....if you add Holmdel to Pallone's district, that would make it more red.

A 12-0 D map in NJ could easily become a dummymander and is impossible to draw without violating the VRA. 11-1 is a stretch and 10-2 is the best they can expect from the commission.

How would it violate the VRA when Payne Jr., Watson Coleman and Sires would have safe seats? I think Pascrell stays on til 2025, it's 30 years too late for him, he should have been governor or House Speaker years ago, he is no-nonsense and tough.