U.S. House Redistricting: Illinois

[muon2]

(moving from the south to Chicagoland)

light blue: Costello (D), pretty much unchanged.

yellow: R, obviously. Shimkus will run here; Johnson has to decide whether to challenge him or whether to try to hold the orange district.

orange: new D-leaning district with Springfield, Bloomington/Normal & Champaign/Urbana. Not completely unwinnable for the Reps, but pretty tough.

the west-central green district: Schock, R.

purple, along the Mississippi: the key here is putting Rockford in this district, which keeps it roughly the same kind of district it is now (basically labor Dem, but not totally safe in a bad year like 2010), while making it less weird-shaped and freeing up Springfield for the other orange seat).

light green, north-Central: Kinzinger and Hultgren forced into a primary.

and, then, in Chicagoland:
dark green: Rush, 54% black

dark blue: Jackson, 54% black

purple, SW Cook: Lipinski

red: new Mexican district; 61% Hispanic

grey, Davis: 54% black

yellow: Gutierrez - 54% Hispanic

forest green: Quigley

pale blue: Schakowsky. Dold could try to hold it, but it's not happening.

purple, NW Cook: I assume this is a D seat. If it isn't, you could exchange some territory with the green one.

beige: I've put all the minorities in the western suburbs I could find here. Biggert could try to hold it, but it's pretty tough at only 57% white.

brown: Roskam.

pink: assuming what's his name has beaten Melissa Bean, he's forced into a primary with Manzullo.

Not that it matters in IL, but here's where in reps would live on your map.

Shimkus is in Madison county in the light blue district with Costello.

Johnson does live in the orange district. Shock and Shilling are in the districts you would expect.

Manzullo lives in Ogle county which put him in the light green district.

Hultgren lives in the brown district with Roskam, but most of his current state senate district is in the beige district.

Kinzinger is in Kankakee county in the dark green district with Jackson (not Rush).

Rush lives in the grey district with Davis. In 2001 Rush was quite particular about residency both for himself and potential opponents, going so far as to make sure a certain state sen. Obama was drawn out of the district. Biggert also lives in this grey district in the DuPage part.

Dold does live in the pale blue district with Schakowsky. So does Walsh who doesn't live in the 8th, but actually lives quite near Dold (Bean didn't live in the 8th either so it wasn't an issue.) Quigley may also live in this district and is near the edge in any case.

Gutierrez may be in the forest green district, but he doesn't live in the 4th district now.

Lipinski is in the purple district.

[muon2]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

[muon2]

Here's a Dem map of Chicago. It's ugly as hell.

State:



Chicago:





Wider view of NE Illinois:



IL-01 (blue, Bobby Rush - D) - Stretches down into Will County to soak up some Republican votes. 53% black.
IL-02 (green, Jesse Jackson Jr. - D) - Same as above; 52% black.
IL-03 (purple, Dan Lipinski - D) This one gets pushed out into the suburbs; it hooks around through DuPage to pull in some parts of northern Cook County. It should still lean Dem, but not as much. Biggert might try to run here; her house is either just inside or more likely just outside the border.
IL-04 (red, Luis Gutierrez - D) - Southern half of his old district; 62% Hispanic.
IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley - D) - Had to combine his district with parts of IL-04 to make another Hispanic district. It's 57% Hispanic. Quigley would probably not be the favorite to survive here.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam - R and Judy Biggert - R) - Thrown together, it's actually not a whole lot of either Roskam or Biggert's district. It should be pretty safe for the primary victor, assuming Biggert were to run here.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis - D) - Mostly the same, just expands a bit. 56% black.
IL-08 (light purple, open) - Drew McHenry out of the district, so Walsh is put into Manzullo's district. Adds more of Cook County; should be a little less Republican now, Bean would likely make a strong comeback.
IL-09 (light teal, Jan Schakowsky - D) - Moves south somewhat, still safe D.
IL-10 (magenta, Bob Dold - R) - Pretty much the same; if the Democrats can just get someone not named Dan Seals to win the nomination...
IL-11 (very light green, Adam Kinzinger - R) - Drops a bunch of rural area and expands north into Bolingbrook. Should be more of a swing district now. Just get a new candidate, Dems.
IL-12 (light blue, Jerry Costello - D and John Shimkus - R) - All the Dem-leaning territory in the southern half of the state. Should remain safe for Costello. Shimkus lives in this district, but he could easily move into the new IL-13.
IL-13 (pink, open) - Formerly IL-19, the rest of the southern half of the state. Shimkus would go here. Safe R.
IL-14 (brown, Randy Hultgren - R) - Gathers up as much Dem-friendly territory in Kane County, then instead of the old phallic southwest-pointing district, goes northwest through DeKalb to Rockford (cue synthesizer music). Bill Foster could retake this district; the Hispanic percentage increased from 18% to 25%, and the black percentage from 5% to 9%.
IL-15 (orange, Tim Johnson - R) - I tried to put as much not-heavily-Republican territory in this district as possible; it's centered in Champaign-Urbana and Bloomington. Probably wouldn't be too hard for Johnson to hold, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could give the Republicans a headache in an open seat.
IL-16 (light green, Don Manzullo - R and Joe Walsh - R) - Cuts out Rockford and stretches east to take in McHenry and parts of Lake and a bit of Cook County. Safe R.
IL-17 (purple, Bobby Schilling - R and Aaron Schock - R) - About as ridiculous as before, with the bonus of adding Peoria to the district. It doesn't, however, stretch all the way south to IL-14. Schock lives in Peoria, but would move to IL-18. Schilling would probably lose to a decent Democrat; again, get a better candidate, Dems.
IL-18 (yellow, open) - Safe R. Schock goes here.

In IL, the congressmen often don't live where you might think. I suspect you would make 5 of the 8 incumbent Dems unhappy with this map.

IL-1 Rush lives at the northern extreme end of his district, and last cycle he was very particular about staying in the district. The map was drawn to keep Obama out of IL-1 in 2000, even though residency is not required. You've put him into Davis' district, and that won't make either happy.

IL-3 Lipinski is in this district, but I don't think he'd be very happy. The DuPage townships you've given him have good organization and regularly vote R, as does a lot of the Cook area. A lot of that area regularly vote for R's for local and state offices. Check the 2004 presidential vote (favorite son Obama is not indicative in IL).

IL-4 This is a wide open seat as you've drawn it. See IL-5.

IL-5 This includes Gutierrez' home and base on the NW side. Quigley lives in Wrigleyville and is in IL-9 as you've drawn it. Also, the difference between Hispanic population
and VAP is about 7.5 to 8% in that area. My conclusion is that you have to go beyond O'Hare or into DuPage or both to be sure of 50% VAP.

IL-6 Roskam, Biggert and Hultgren all live here, but Hultgren would likely run in IL-14 as you drew it.

IL-7 See IL-1.

IL-8 Walsh actually lives in Winnetka near Dold in the SE corner of CD-10. He did grow up in Barrington which is partially in the district you drew, so he would be comfortable there. It's also gained the GOP base of Palatine in Cook, so that helps him.

IL-9 Schakowsky lives here, but you've given this district much of the base from Quigley as well as Quigley's home. Unless Jan is running for another office in 2012, this is not going to play well.

IL-10 This actually does help strengthen the Dems to get rid of Dold.

IL-11 Kinzinger doesn't live anywhere near the district you've drawn. He used to be on the McLean county board at the southern tip of the current CD. This is ideal for Halvorson to hold, if she were the incumbent. However, I tend to think Lipinski will want Joliet to compensate for losing so much of the Chicago part of his district to the new Hispanic seat.

IL-12, 13 This is much like I would expect, too.

IL-14 Not a bad idea for the Dems. Turnout can be a problem in off year elections in Aurora and Rockford so it may be a swing district as drawn.

IL-15 Johnson and Kinzinger both live here, and its the type of pairing I expect will happen for real.

IL-16 Manzullo is in an ideal R hold here.

IL-17 You can make this just a solidly D by dropping Decatur for areas up the Mississippi and across from Peoria. The Dems might want Decatur for your CD-15 instead. It's much better than Effingham.

IL-18 As you noted, Schock can represent whatever hard-R district is left in west central IL.

[muon2]

Someone should tell Wikipedia that they've got so many wrong residences.

That's why I usually refer to Vote Smart, unless I can find addresses from the State Board of Elections. BTW which ones were off?

[muon2]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

It's entirely possible. Obama will be at the top of the ticket again, so there is a balance that must be done between the current incumbent Dems and how many seats they want to put at risk in 2014.

[muon2]

Walsh is listed as living in McHenry, and Kinzinger in Manteno. Hultgren does live outside the district, I mistook the county it was in for Kane.

Walsh's previous campaigns in the 1990s were based on his Winnetka home and he was registered there when he filed for the election. He may have taken a new residence during the campaign to be in the district.

Kinzinger did have an apartment in Manteno for the election and was registered there. His hometown is Bloomington and that is where his political base is.

[muon2]

The Chicago Sun-Times posted a nice interactive graphic this week. It shows the estimated racial and ethnic percentages by census tract in the metro Chicago area. It's based on the 2009 estimates and gives a good idea of where the minority districts will go.

[muon2]

  I've been going through the population estimates and demographic estimates from sampling data released by the Census Bureas.
  I call it:  There will be no second Hispanic district created in Illinois.  The population is too spread out.  I can create one from the south area, but there is no way that I can see that a free standing majority Hispanic District can be created from the northern area--unless the Dems want to run Quigley against Gutierez--and that defeats the purpose of their controlling the remap.
  Get ready for another 10 years of the earmuff district.

Gutierrez lives in the southern half, no? So it would be Quigley alone in the new Hispanic district. Probably not his first choice, but I don't think he'd be in any real danger of a primary challenge.

Gutierrez is from the northern part, but he doesn't currently live in the district. Quigley doesn't live that far from him, but he's not in the Hispanic area.

It's not hard to make a southern district that is compact and easily exceeds 50% Hispanic VAP.

The northern one is trickier. One needs to link the current northern part of IL-4 to the Hispanic suburbs and neighborhoods around O'Hare, including the NE part of DuPage. That link probably won't be any wider than a railroad right-of-way at some points. Combining those two areas creates enough VAP to exceed 50%. The number varies from 52-54% depending on how much is cut from the Chicago parts of IL-5.

[muon2]

Do you have any feeling as to how aggressive the Dems will be Muon2 in getting rid of GOP seats in Illinois?  Will they settle for 2, or go for 6?

I have no inside info at this point, but it would seem reasonable to try to recover the four lost seats from this year. A new Hispanic seat, two suburban ones and one downstate should be possible.

So five R's eliminated?

It's entirely possible. Obama will be at the top of the ticket again, so there is a balance that must be done between the current incumbent Dems and how many seats they want to put at risk in 2014.

The goal here should probably be something like 13-5.

IL-1 and IL-2 can easily take out Kinzinger, IL-9 can take out IL-10. Combine Biggert and Roskam into 1 super GOP suburban district. Redraw the ridiculous Quad Cities district to be something much more Democratic. Then just eliminate something downstate.

It's certainly possible to take out 6 Rs to get a 13-5 delegation. However, I suspect it will require some sitting Ds to move out of their comfort zone in revised districts (eg IL-9 stretching up to WI), and even so, a couple of downstate districts may only be about D+2.

The Quad Cities district was drawn to be as Dem as possible 10 years ago without using Peoria. Presumable it could add Peoria now to boost its numbers. IL-17 could also be split to try to bolster 2 districts per your 13-5 hypothesis.

[muon2]

13-5 is not hard to achieve at all. Three Republican downstate districts, as well as one in DuPage County and one anchored on McHenry County. All of that can be done very safely.

Where would you put the GOP areas of the current CD-14? Is that going to go with McHenry? If so, it's too big and part will have to go with another GOP district. What areas do you add to Rockford to bring it up to size yet still make it winnable for the Dems? I think it's tough to get three downstate Dem districts and have all perform well (ie D+5 or so).

[muon2]

Is there any chance they'd append part of the northern earmuff to IL-7 to keep its population up, while making IL-4 based in the southern half?

The southern part of IL-4 can certainly stand on its own, but attaching the northern part onto IL-7 would reduce the black population below 50%. IL-7 will have to reach more to the south side in IL-1 and 2 to maintain a black majority. The northern part of IL-4 could pick up parts of IL-5 and 6 to become a second Hispanic majority district.

[muon2]

Is there any chance they'd append part of the northern earmuff to IL-7 to keep its population up, while making IL-4 based in the southern half?

The southern part of IL-4 can certainly stand on its own, but attaching the northern part onto IL-7 would reduce the black population below 50%.

But does that matter? It won't prevent the African-American community in the district from electing the candidate of its choice, not by a long shot, and I thought there were questions about whether three 50.1% districts can be made in Cook County any more, so it may not be on the table. Otherwise, won't IL-7 have to expand at the expense of IL-1 and IL-2?

Three black-majority districts are still possible, but not in Cook County alone. One way is to extend IL-2 into Will and Kankakee. Certainly the Dems could negotiate to have one district under 50% without a legal challenge, but I think then IL-7 would extend into GOP areas to the west, not to the north.

[muon2]

Three black-majority districts are still possible, but not in Cook County alone. One way is to extend IL-2 into Will and Kankakee. Certainly the Dems could negotiate to have one district under 50% without a legal challenge, but I think then IL-7 would extend into GOP areas to the west, not to the north.

Is it a given that 2 hispanic districts and 3 black districts will help the pubbies?

Not automatically. If the black districts expand south that will carve up IL-11 held by Kinzinger. A 2nd Hispanic district will push other Dem districts into the suburbs and could then reduce either IL-10 or IL-8 by taking up parts of those districts.

[muon2]

Swing State Project had a post yesterday that included two Hispanic districts as well as three black-majority districts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I know that one can do better than a Hispanic-plurality for the second district, but I wanted to see what one could do at the precinct level in Dave's App. I also wanted to avoid running all the way out to Kane county to link Elgin or Aurora with Chicago. All districts are within 50 persons of the ideal population. Here's an image of my five majority-minority districts:



CD 1 (Rush) 51.3% Black VAP
CD 2 (Jackson) 50.7% Black VAP
CD 3 (open) 59.4% Hispanic VAP
CD 4 (Gutierrez) 50.1% Hispanic VAP
CD 7 (Davis) 50.8% Black VAP

All the districts could go up about 1% with block-level mapping. The open CD 4 should be quite viable for a Hispanic candidate, and Gutierrez' incumbency could overcome the reduced VAP in CD 4.

[muon2]

Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

[muon2]

Greg Giroux reports that Quinn has signed the Congressional map into law.

Now that it is law the GOP delegation officially announced that a lawsuit will be forthcoming. I expect that it will be about Latino representation.

[muon2]

'kay, so I was reading the post below that. Not that it matters anyhow - it's not possible to draw one that would elect a Hispanic and represent a community of interest, and thus not possible to draw one that can be used to argue your case in court. That random connector strip through whiteyland isn't going to be ordered by any court (whether a court could be found to strike it down, had the Democrats drawn it themselves, is quite another matter. Probably not, though it's happened.) Come back when you have a map that does without Elgin. (Not saying it's literally impossible, as I haven't tried.)

I'm not sure I follow your argument, Lewis. The current CD-4 has an extremely thin connector to bridge two distinct communities of interest that both happen to be Hispanic. Since the court OK'ed that bridge, I would expect that another similar linking bridge would also pass the court.

The 50% is such a barely there majority that it probably wouldn't give Hispanics an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice. The better statement for me to make would have been it's not possible to create a second district that would give that opportunity, because that is correct. Frankly, I think the VRA is past it usefulness and the only federal standards on redistricting should be compactness, because that what really counts.

I would agree that a bare 50% VAP majority is unlikely to meet statistical tests needed to show that Hispanics could elect their candidate of choice. However, a compact SW side district can be drawn at 59.4% VAP with DRA as shown in the earlier link to my March post. SCOTUS decisions would suggest that if a compact Hispanic district can be drawn, then the earmuff should not.

If a compact Hispanic CD-3 is required then that leaves the question open for a second Hispanic district. Certainly the proportion would argue for its creation if one can be made to elect a candidate of choice. If the thin connector was legitimate for the NW/SW connection, then why wouldn't it be equally valid for a NW Chicago/Elgin connection?

[muon2]

Aurora is probably most naturally paired with Elgin, to be honest.  Both cities have a similar history of being sizable, semi-industrial Fox Valley cities in Kane County that long ago got a large influx of blacks and Hispanics.  The tri-cities of St. Charles, Geneva, and Batavia have long been linked with Aurora as well (although they're now very different demographically).  

If you look at the Hispanic population in the Elgin/West Chicago/Aurora corridor, it's enough to make a solid Senate district of 200K that can elect candidates of choice for the Hispanics. Even at the coarse level of DRA mapping it can be linked to NW Chicago for a CD with 57% Hispanic VAP.

[muon2]

Isn't the northern earmuff Puerto Rican, and Elgin mostly Mexican?  So besides linking a city with an exurb you are combining two distinct groups.

The total current 4th district was 56% Mexican and 11% Portorican in 2000*, so I doubt it. It may well be that the Portoricans live mostly in the northern earmuff, but they're not alone there.

*18% Anglo, 4% Black, 3% Asian and non-hispanic mixed race, 4% non-specified or unclassifiable Hispanic, 4% other specified Hispanic origins

The PR population dominated the very near NW side two decades ago when IL-4 was first assembled. Since then there has been a lot of influx from other Hispanic groups even as the PR population has spread out. Mexican and other Central American groups dominate throughout the region.