IA (DMR/Selzer): Trump +15

[Matty]

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

The selzer poll WAS a bad omen for Biden in Wisconsin. It showed that the state was going to be razor thin like 2016, and that other polls of the state were too Biden friendly

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

Wasn’t it accurately a bad omen for Wisconsin though? It finished so close.

Iowa didn't suggest much about the Milwaukee and Madison suburbs that saved Biden, and are continuing to move left to this day.

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

The selzer poll WAS a bad omen for Biden in Wisconsin. It showed that the state was going to be razor thin like 2016, and that other polls of the state were too Biden friendly

Anyone with common sense should have known that Biden wasn't going to win Wisconsin by 17, let alone anywhere beyond the low single digits on his best night.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

Wasn’t it accurately a bad omen for Wisconsin though? It finished so close.

Iowa didn't suggest much about the Milwaukee and Madison suburbs that saved Biden, and are continuing to move left to this day.

Biden will get more than 33% here by election day.

Needless to say, Iowa is gone for Democrats.

I would like to remind posters here about discerning other Midwestern states' margins from Iowa though. Remember in 2020 all the panic over Selzer's last poll and how it was a bad onen for Biden in Minnesota and Wisconsin?

The selzer poll WAS a bad omen for Biden in Wisconsin. It showed that the state was going to be razor thin like 2016, and that other polls of the state were too Biden friendly

Anyone with common sense should have known that Biden wasn't going to win Wisconsin by 17, let alone anywhere beyond the low single digits on his best night.

99% of this forum didn't have common sense in that case.

[cg41386]

I’m pretty sure a majority of posters fully understood Biden wasn’t winning WI by 17%.

[Annatar]

In 2020, the swing in Iowa did predict Wisconsin, so there is some correlation there, in 2020 IA swung 1.2% towards Biden and WI swung 1.4%.

[Brittain33]

No one thought Biden would win by 17 points but with his high polls it was reasonable to think an Obama 2012-level win was possible.

The actual 2020 results in WI were pretty shocking to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2020, the swing in Iowa did predict Wisconsin, so there is some correlation there, in 2020 IA swung 1.2% towards Biden and WI swung 1.4%.

Grassley won by 12 and Gov Evers won by 4 so there is no correlation and we win Wzi judge race by 11 stop comparing WI to IA it's 12 percent blk and IA is 3

[Skill and Chance]

They're finding a pretty large swing compared to other Northern states.  Perhaps not shocking as Iowa is particularly religious for how far north it is.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They're finding a pretty large swing compared to other Northern states.  Perhaps not shocking as Iowa is particularly religious for how far north it is.

In the past Selzer has been accurate while other Northern State polling underestimated Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I may also add that not only did Grassley won by 12 but Reynolds won by 30 Trump doing 15 not 9 pts better has no beating on MN or WI that have way more blks in the states than IA, but Emerson already polled IA it was Trump +9