College Football 2016

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll try to chime in the discussion here as well.  If there is one thing I follow more closely than politics, it's college football! (I'm a total SEC homer)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This year seems potentially crazy enough that I think there is a reasonable chance that a two-loss team can get into the CFP.  I would not have fired Les Miles at this point if I were Joe Alleva and LSU.  If you brought him back at the end of last year, I would at least give him the year.  He was literally fired because of a tenth of a second!!

Meanwhile, it was a fun week of college football, particularly in the mid-afternoon timeslot.  There were a lot of really, really good games, but the most remarkable might be one that few paid attention to.  Leading 21-17 with one minute left, Western Kentucky kicked a field goal to go up 24-17 on Vanderbilt.  Vanderbilt had no timeouts remaining and does not have the type of offense that can move the ball downfield with quick passes.  They do have a quarterback with a lot of potential, but who has never quite moved to the next level.  On this drive, however, he was able to move it down to the Western Kentucky 15 yard line with about 13 seconds to play, giving them 3 shots at the endzone after a spike.  On 3rd Down, Vanderbilt drew a pass interference call in the endzone with 3 seconds left in the game.  From the 2 yard line, they handed the ball off to Ralph Webb, the best player you have never heard of in college football (coming into the week, he, not Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb, was leading the SEC in rushing), who literally leaped over the line and into the endzone for the tying score.  Vandy then won the game 31-30 in overtime after they scored on their opening possession, and Western Kentucky followed with scoring.  But, the Hilltoppers decided to go for two and the win, which Vandy was able to tip and intercept, sealing the improbable upset win.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think there will be real chaos for the selection committee this year, as I don't think there will be 4 undefeated or one-loss teams from P5 conferences, let alone that won conference championships.  Something controversial will happen- possibly two teams from one conference or a close call with a mid-major.  It probably leads to an expansion to eight teams in a couple years.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A caller on the Finebaum Show presented an interesting scenario this afternoon- Alabama and Tennessee playing three times this season.  If they are both 12-1 after splitting their two meetings (regular season and SEC Championship), the Committee would at least give a good look at putting both in.  It's been my dream since the CFP started to get multiple SEC teams into the playoff.

My SEC Power Rankings through 4 weeks:

1. Alabama (4-0)
2. Texas A&M (4-0)
3. Tennessee (4-0)
4. Ole Miss (2-2)
5. Arkansas (3-1)
6. Georgia (3-1)
7. LSU (2-2)
8. Florida (3-1)
9. Auburn (2-2)
10. Missouri (2-2)
11. Mississippi St. (2-2)
12. Vanderbilt (2-2)
13. South Carolina (2-2)
14. Kentucky (2-2)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A caller on the Finebaum Show presented an interesting scenario this afternoon- Alabama and Tennessee playing three times this season.  If they are both 12-1 after splitting their two meetings (regular season and SEC Championship), the Committee would at least give a good look at putting both in.  It's been my dream since the CFP started to get multiple SEC teams into the playoff.

lol this is not happening, Alabama is the best team in the country and Tennessee is trash, gtfo with that

I'm not a UT fan apart from rooting for them when they're playing a non-SEC opponent.  I would actually root for Alabama in that hypothetical game.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of course, we had two incredible endings (and one incredible non-ending) in about a fifteen minute span at the end of the mid-afternoon games yesterday (UNC-FSU and Tennessee-Georgia)!  Plus, a great game between Louisville and Clemson.

We are down to 12 remaining undefeated teams in Power 5 conferences:
SEC: #1 Alabama, #8 Texas A&M, #9 Tennessee
ACC: #3 Clemson, #10 Miami
Big Ten: #2 Ohio St., #4 Michigan, #12 Nebraska, Maryland
Big 12: #13 Baylor, #22 West Virginia
Pac-12: #5 Washington

#7 Louisville is the highest ranked team with a loss, and #6 Houston is tops from the non-power conferences.

My current rankings:
1. Ohio St. (it pains me to say it, but they look like the best team right now)
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Michigan
5. Louisville
6. Texas A&M
7. Tennessee
8. Washington
9. Houston
10. Wisconsin
11. Ole Miss
12. Miami
13. Stanford
14. North Carolina
15. Arkansas
16. Nebraska
17. Oklahoma
18. Colorado
19. Baylor
20. LSU
21. Georgia
22. Florida
23. Florida St.
24. Boise St.
25. Oklahoma St.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Don't know if Hurricane Matthew will have an impact on the election, but it could reek havoc on college football.  Everything from Florida to Jersey is at risk with the state of North Carolina particularly packed with games.

The FSU-Miami game should be fine, and anything Virginia on northwards can be played before Matthew gets there.  The LSU-Florida game should be OK, but I'm not going to say that 100%.  That leaves the 4 ACC games in NC and the Georgia-South Carolina game as problematic.  In fact, Nikki Haley pretty much said that the SC game will not be played as schedule today.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The new AP Poll is out, and we have seven SEC teams in the top 25, despite the absolute snubbing of LSU and Georgia:

1. Alabama
6. Texas A&M
9. Tennessee
12. Ole Miss
18. Florida
22. Arkansas
23. Auburn

Since the end of the 2013 season, every SEC team except Kentucky has appeared in the Top 25 at some point!  Of course, we have a showdown between Alabama and Tennessee this weekend in Knoxville and Alabama and Texas A&M next weekend in Tuscaloosa.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If A&M beats Bama tomorrow, I like our chances to get two teams in the College Football Playoff.  The SEC West, in my opinion, has six of the top 15-20 teams in the country.  It's not their fault that some of them will have five losses, because someone has to lose their games against each other!  It will be proven, yet again, when the SEC dominates in bowl season, just like last year, when people didn't give us enough respect.  Mississippi St. might not go to a bowl game, even though they are a good enough team to take BYU to overtime in Provo, because their early-season post-Dak growing pains will be too much to overcome in the SEC West.

The other thing that is incredible about this season is the number of brand names in serious jeopardy of not going bowling:

Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Oregon
Mississippi St. (reached #1 just two years ago)
UCLA
Texas

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If A&M beats Bama tomorrow, I like our chances to get two teams in the College Football Playoff.  The SEC West, in my opinion, has six of the top 15-20 teams in the country.  It's not their fault that some of them will have five losses, because someone has to lose their games against each other!  It will be proven, yet again, when the SEC dominates in bowl season, just like last year, when people didn't give us enough respect.  Mississippi St. might not go to a bowl game, even though they are a good enough team to take BYU to overtime in Provo, because their early-season post-Dak growing pains will be too much to overcome in the SEC West.

The other thing that is incredible about this season is the number of brand names in serious jeopardy of not going bowling:

Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Oregon
Mississippi St. (reached #1 just two years ago)
UCLA
Texas

No way the SEC gets two teams from the West in. The committee has made it clear that it values conference champions far above non-champions. No way they put, say, a 1 loss Bama or A&M that doesn't even win its own division over a one loss (or even some 2 loss teams like a 2 loss Wisconsin that won a rematch in the B1G championship) ACC/Big XII/Big 10/Pac-12 champion. Plus, the SEC West just flat out isn't that great this year. It's possibly still the best division in CFB, but the non-conference results (losses by LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, and wins that were either unimpressive or over unimpressive teams by Arky, Bama, and A&M) definitely make that a debatable proposition.

If they DO let in a non-conference champion, I think that 1 loss Louisville and the loser of the Michigan/tOSU game will have just as good a claim (or better) as the 2nd in the West.

Let me give you a hypothetical from last year:

Arkansas fails to convert on the 4th & 25 miracle flip in Oxford.  Ole Miss wins the West with 2 losses.  Alabama was already inside the top 4.  Do you really think they would have dropped Alabama out?  My understanding is that conference championships are essentially used as tiebreakers, and I think that, sooner or later, a conference will get two of the four (which will probably lead to expansion, just like when Alabama and LSU had their 2011 rematch).  Assuming Ole Miss beat a reeling Florida team in the SEC Championship Game, what do you think would have happened?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In B4 extreme's tears of tears.

About what game?  I'm pretty happy with today's results, for the most part.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee losing and ceding the East's crown (as well as any claim to being a good football team) to Florida, I assume.

I'm not a Tennessee fan and pretty much laughed for the fourth quarter of that game.  The SEC East is a big mess right now.  I think Florida will lose both games at West opponents, though, which will give them three losses.  But, I don't trust Tennessee to run the table of Mizzou/Kentucky/Vandy.  It's actually realistic that Kentucky could win the East.  And, with just three losses, if Vandy somehow ran the table, even they could.  It really seems like no one wants to win that division (which only has one crossover win against the West all season).

In the West, Ole Miss is now in serious jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game.  They will likely need to beat both Vandy in Nashville and Mississippi St. in Oxford the last two weeks to get to six wins.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tennessee losing and ceding the East's crown (as well as any claim to being a good football team) to Florida, I assume.

I'm not a Tennessee fan and pretty much laughed for the fourth quarter of that game.  The SEC East is a big mess right now.  I think Florida will lose both games at West opponents, though, which will give them three losses.  But, I don't trust Tennessee to run the table of Mizzou/Kentucky/Vandy.  It's actually realistic that Kentucky could win the East.  And, with just three losses, if Vandy somehow ran the table, even they could.  It really seems like no one wants to win that division (which only has one crossover win against the West all season).

In the West, Ole Miss is now in serious jeopardy of missing out on a bowl game.  They will likely need to beat both Vandy in Nashville and Mississippi St. in Oxford the last two weeks to get to six wins.

If not Tennessee, who is your team?

Vanderbilt (it's not always fun, so I also root for the SEC)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The first College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and we have 5 SEC teams in the top 13, including two of the four who are in for now.  If Alabama and A&M win out, I feel good about getting two teams in.  I will be down in Auburn this weekend, which should be a really fun atmosphere.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Fun fact: The Egg Bowl is probably a play-in for the Independence Bowl. Yes, even though Mississippi State is 4-7 right now, our APR is probably high enough to sneak into a bowl with a win today, as there won't be enough 6-6+ teams to fill all 80 slots.

Not we deserve a bowl even if we win today, but I'll take the extra practices and game experience.

Mississippi St. will probably go to a different bowl because, at 5-7, they will go to a bowl that is not filled with conference tie-ins, which won't be the Independence Bowl.  The SEC bowl tie-ins should go like this:

1. Playoff- Alabama
2. Sugar- Probably Auburn, but maybe Florida or LSU
3. Orlando- Auburn, Florida, or LSU
4-9. Birmingham office works with Charlotte, Nashville, Memphis, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Tampa to find the best fits (the six should be LSU/Florida, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky with a very remote chance that Vandy or SC replace UGA or UK).
10. Birmingham- Likely choice between Vanderbilt and South Carolina
11. Shreveport- Whichever one Birmingham doesn't want
12. APR- Mississippi St.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Current Probabilities to win the championship based on betting lines:

Alabama: 70%
Ohio State: 14%
Clemson: 8%
Washington: 8%

Clemson seems slightly low, but overall pretty accurate. My bias says Alabama should be higher too, but I'll take 70% since it was an obscenely low <15% when I bought my futures.

If I were to assign odds to the other championships:

North Dakota State 64%
James Madison 12%
South Dakota State 10%
Eastern Washington 6%
Youngstown State 3%
Sam Houston State 3%
Richmond 1%
Wofford 1%

and

Northwest Missouri State 50%
North Alabama 35%
Ferris State 10%
Shepherd 5%

I'm more confident in NDSU winning it for the sixth (?) straight year than I am in Alabama winning, though they are both overwhelming favorites.  Alabama does have a cakewalk semifinal, but an Alabama-Ohio St. final could be epic.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The bit with Trump, Verne, and Gary was great!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The potential end of one of the most incredible dynasties I have seen!

James Madison defeats the five-time defending FCS National Champion North Dakota St. 27-17 in the semifinals.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

LOL we only beat a 6-6 MAC team by 1 point. #SEC! #SEC! #SEC!

And, we got clobbered by an ACC team.  Hopefully, the rest of us do better!

Roll Tide!
War Eagle!
Geaux Tigers!
Go Gators!
Rocky Top!
Gig 'Em!
Big Blue Nation!
Woo Pig!
Go Dawgs!
Go 'Cocks!
Anchor Down!
Hail State!

(also Hotty Toddy and MIZ-ZOU!)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

An all-time classic with a really disappointing finish