2008 Senate Elections???

[ian]

After 2006, what will happen in the Senate?
Here are the incumbents:

Sessions (AL) - zzzzzzzzz
Stevens (AK) - Retiring?
Pryor (AR) - Democrat in a red state.  Possible overthrow of one-term Senator?
Allard (CO) - Retiring?  Udall's challenging him if he does or doesn't.
Biden (DE) - Retiring?
Chambliss (GA) - Will Cox run?  Will Cleland re-run?
Craig (ID) - zzzzzzzzzz
Durbin (IL) - zzzzzzzzzzzz
Harkin (IA) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Roberts (KS) - zzzzzzzzzzz
McConnell (KY) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Landrieu (LA) - Katrina could end Mary's career?
Collins (ME) - Said she would retire; indicates otherwise.
Kerry (MA) - Retire to run for presidency?
Levin (MI) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Coleman (MN) - Low approval ratings.  One-term Senator.
Cochran (MS) - Retiring?
Baucus (MT) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Hagel (NE) - Retire to run for presidency?
Sununu (NH) - Strong Conservative in a blue state.  Lynch could possibly run; so could Shaheen (again)
Lautenberg (NJ) - Low approval ratings.
Domenici (NM) - Retire?
Dole (NC) - Retire to run for Governor?
Inhofe (OK) - Retire?
Smith (OR) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Reed (RI) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Graham (SC) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Johnson (SD) - Could face Governor Rounds, one-term Senator.
Alexander (TN)- Retiring?
Cornyn (TX) - Wikipedia thinks he could be challenged.  I somehow doubt it, especially considering the incompetence of the Texas Democratic Party.
Warner (VA) - Retiring?
Rockefeller (WV) - Retiring?
Enzi (WY) - zzzzzzzzzzz

[ian]

Stevens (AK) - Unless Knowles passes up the governorship, this seat stays in the hands of a Republican, Stevens or not.
Pryor (AR) - Keeps it.
Allard (CO) - Udall gets it if Allard gives it up; otherwise a tossup
Biden (DE) - Doesn't retire
Chambliss (GA) - If Cleland runs again, we can get this seat back with a fight.
Landrieu (LA) - It'll be close.  I hope Mary keeps her seat, but she might not.
Collins (ME) - Won't retire.  Easy run.
Kerry (MA) - Doesn't retire.
Coleman (MN) - With a good candidate, we can get this one back.
Cochran (MS) - If he does, in fact, retire, which he may or may not, Taylor can win this for us.
Hagel (NE) - Doesn't retire
Sununu (NH) - Close race with a good opponent, but he'll win in the end.  His approvals are too high for him not to.
Lautenberg (NJ) - If Kean loses against Corzine and runs again two years later, it's a guaranteed win for him.
Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?
Dole (NC) - Retires to run for Governor.  Possibly Edwards runs again?  Or Bowles?
Inhofe (OK) - No clue.
Johnson (SD) - If against Governor Rounds, it'll be close.  If not, fuggedaboutit.
Alexander (TN)- Retires.  Another Republican wins in his place.
Cornyn (TX) - Wins in a landslide against Chris Bell and Kinky Freidman.
Warner (VA) - Doesn't retire, unless he runs for the presidency.
Rockefeller (WV) - Retires.  Capito replaces him.

Best Case Scenario (D) - D+6.  R+3 (Dem net gain of 3)
Best Case Scenario (R) - R+4.  D+0 (Repub net gain of 4)

[WMS]

Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?

Sure.

It is not 100% clear what Domenici will do. A few years ago it looked like he was going to retire for health reasons, but he's feeling better now and it now looks like he'll run again. But we'll have to see, won't we?

This race is easily the most bipolar Senate race for 2008. If Domenici runs, it will be extremely uncompetitive. If Domenici retires, it will be extremely competitive. No middle ground here.

As for why that is...Domenici is very popular in NM - not too far right, and good at bringing in federal tax dollars from Connecticut. He won ultra-Democratic Rio Arriba County back in 2002, after all. Now balance that with the fact that NM is highly competitive as a state, with pools of voters from all four political quadrants. And both parties have good benches to draw on for this race.

Does this help, ian?

[Gabu]

Pryor (AR) - Democrat in a red state.  Possible overthrow of one-term Senator?

I wouldn't bet on it.  Arkansas is only really "red" at the presidential level, and even then a guy like Clinton can carry it and its surrounding states easily.

[ian]

Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?

Sure.

It is not 100% clear what Domenici will do. A few years ago it looked like he was going to retire for health reasons, but he's feeling better now and it now looks like he'll run again. But we'll have to see, won't we?

This race is easily the most bipolar Senate race for 2008. If Domenici runs, it will be extremely uncompetitive. If Domenici retires, it will be extremely competitive. No middle ground here.

As for why that is...Domenici is very popular in NM - not too far right, and good at bringing in federal tax dollars from Connecticut. He won ultra-Democratic Rio Arriba County back in 2002, after all. Now balance that with the fact that NM is highly competitive as a state, with pools of voters from all four political quadrants. And both parties have good benches to draw on for this race.

Does this help, ian?

Yes, thank you, WMS! 
Who do you think would run in both parties if Domenici were to retire?

[7,052,770]

Cochran (MS) - If he does, in fact, retire, which he may or may not, Taylor can win this for us.

bet on Mike Moore, actually, though it's not impossible that Taylor could win this one.

Assuming Cochran retires, I'd put MS in the tossup/lean D thanks to Moore.  However, if Hillary's at the top of the ballot it could hurt him...I was really hoping Moore could run THIS year...

[WMS]

Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?

Sure.

It is not 100% clear what Domenici will do. A few years ago it looked like he was going to retire for health reasons, but he's feeling better now and it now looks like he'll run again. But we'll have to see, won't we?

This race is easily the most bipolar Senate race for 2008. If Domenici runs, it will be extremely uncompetitive. If Domenici retires, it will be extremely competitive. No middle ground here.

As for why that is...Domenici is very popular in NM - not too far right, and good at bringing in federal tax dollars from Connecticut. He won ultra-Democratic Rio Arriba County back in 2002, after all. Now balance that with the fact that NM is highly competitive as a state, with pools of voters from all four political quadrants. And both parties have good benches to draw on for this race.

Does this help, ian?

Yes, thank you, WMS! 
Who do you think would run in both parties if Domenici were to retire?

You're quite welcome.
As for your question...Domenici is close to Heather Wilson in NM-1, since he basically picked her to run in 1998. I'm pretty certain he'd want her to succeed him. However, there will likely be ambitious Reps who want the spot for themselves, especially from the right-libertarian wing on the NM Reps...Stevan Pearce down in NM-2 is one example, plus plenty of others such as John Sanchez (ex-State Rep, failed Guv candidate). Wilson would be the favorite, but not without a primary challenge, quite possibly rather intense.
On the Dem side, everyone and their dog would probably run in the primary. One potential candidate is my favorite, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. But the left wing of the NM Dems doesn't like him, and there's some patron factions that don't either. Quite frankly, there would be so many candidates running from the Dem side that I can't predict who would win the primary...but it would be very, very, messy.

Hmm, the primary election would be every bit as insane as the general election...

[Soaring Eagle]

Here is what I think MIGHT happen:

Sessions (AL) - zzzzzzzzz
Stevens (AK) - Will most likely retire.
Pryor (AR) - Safe.
Allard (CO) - In trouble, but could retire.
Biden (DE) - Will most likely retire.
Chambliss (GA) - Safe unless Cleland runs.
Craig (ID) - zzzzzzzzzz
Durbin (IL) - zzzzzzzzzzzz
Harkin (IA) - Might retire.
Roberts (KS) - Might retire.
McConnell (KY) - Might retire.
Landrieu (LA) - Will be in serious trouble, but could pull through.
Collins (ME) - Will most likely retire.
Kerry (MA) - I wish he would retire, but he probably won't.
Levin (MI) - Will most likely retire.
Coleman (MN) - Ousted by Al Franken.
Cochran (MS) - Might retire.
Baucus (MT) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Hagel (NE) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Sununu (NH) - In serious trouble.
Lautenberg (NJ) - Defeated by Kean (who loses in November)
Domenici (NM) - Might retire.
Dole (NC) - Might retire.
Inhofe (OK) - Might retire
Smith (OR) - Could be vulnerable, but will probably be fine.
Reed (RI) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Graham (SC) - zzzzzzzzzzz
Johnson (SD) - zzzzzzzzzz, unless he faces Rounds. But even then, he would win.
Alexander (TN)- Might retire.
Cornyn (TX) - Safe unless Cuellar runs.
Warner (VA) - Might retire.
Rockefeller (WV) - Might retire.
Enzi (WY) - zzzzzzzzzzz

We could be looking at as many as 15 retirements. I think the Dems will gain seats (they don't have much to lose in 2008), but I don't know how many.

[Q]

Sessions (AL) - Re-elected
Stevens (AK) - Retires; replaced by whoever doesn't run for Governor this year (i.e. Knowles or a GOPer)
Pryor (AR) - Re-elected.
Allard (CO) - Udall (D) wins whether Allard runs for reelection or not.
Biden (DE) - Re-elected.
Chambliss (GA) - Re-elected <shudder>.
Craig (ID) - Re-elected.
Durbin (IL) - Re-elected.
Harkin (IA) - Re-elected.
Roberts (KS) - Re-elected.
McConnell (KY) - Re-elected.
Landrieu (LA) - Defeated by Jindal if he doesn't run/win for Governor in 07.  Otherwise re-elected.
Collins (ME) - Re-elected despite term limit pledge.
Kerry (MA) - Re-elected regardless of presidential ambitions.
Levin (MI) - Retires.  Replacement?
Coleman (MN) - Defeated.  Replacement?
Cochran (MS) - Re-elected.
Baucus (MT) - Re-elected
Hagel (NE) - Re-elected.
Sununu (NH) - Re-elected.
Lautenberg (NJ) - Retires.  Replaced by one of the Democratic Congressmen.
Domenici (NM) - Re-elected.
Dole (NC) - Runs for Governor.  Replacement: Mike Easley.
Inhofe (OK) - Re-elected.
Smith (OR) - Challenged by a Democratic Congressman.
Reed (RI) - Re-elected.
Graham (SC) - Re-elected.
Johnson (SD) - Re-elected unless Rounds runs.
Alexander (TN)- Re-elected.
Cornyn (TX) - Re-elected.
Warner (VA) - Retires.  Replaced by the other Warner from Virginia.
Rockefeller (WV) - Re-elected.
Enzi (WY) - Re-elected.

[Soaring Eagle]

Coleman (MN) - Defeated.  Replacement?

A great American by the name of Al Franken.

[Galactic Overlord]

Dole comes up a lot as a rumored candidate for governor.  Has there been a lot of talk that she might?

[jokerman]

LOL, Ian, I've finally realized you don't know one damn thing about Arkansas politics.

[Nym90]

LOL, Ian, I've finally realized you don't know one damn thing about Arkansas politics.

Well, in his most recent post in this topic, he did mention that he thought Pryor would be reelected. I agree that his first post about the Arkansas race was off-base; Arkansas is still very much Democratic at a state level, even if it favors Republicans for President. It would also be very willing to vote for a moderate Southern Democrat for President.

Unless you were saying that was wrong.

[jokerman]

LOL, Ian, I've finally realized you don't know one damn thing about Arkansas politics.

Well, in his most recent post in this topic, he did mention that he thought Pryor would be reelected. I agree that his first post about the Arkansas race was off-base; Arkansas is still very much Democratic at a state level, even if it favors Republicans for President. It would also be very willing to vote for a moderate Southern Democrat for President.

Unless you were saying that was wrong.

Well, it was that and I remember a few other posts by him in the past about Arkansas politics where I was thinking "What the hell?"

[ian]

LOL, Ian, I've finally realized you don't know one damn thing about Arkansas politics.

Well, in his most recent post in this topic, he did mention that he thought Pryor would be reelected. I agree that his first post about the Arkansas race was off-base; Arkansas is still very much Democratic at a state level, even if it favors Republicans for President. It would also be very willing to vote for a moderate Southern Democrat for President.

Unless you were saying that was wrong.

Well, it was that and I remember a few other posts by him in the past about Arkansas politics where I was thinking "What the hell?"

Okay...  In my first post, I was just giving possible problems for all the incumbents.  In my second post, I gave my personal opinion about what was going to happen in 2008.  I have no doubt that Pryor will be re-elected, since Republicans don't really have anyone to run against him (except for Asa, and that's only if he loses--Pryor would still win anyway--and Huckabee, but he has his eye on bigger things, wouldn't you say?).  If you could please dig up these "what the hell?" comments I have made about Arkansas politics, I would love to see them so that I may defend myself.  Thank you.

[jerusalemcar5]

I wouldn't say Arkansas favors Republicans at all.  I'd say even at the presidential level they favor Democrats.  Bush won it with 51% and then 54%, neither of which are stellar.  Gore and Kerry just weren't right for Arkansas, and Bush was.

[Frodo]

Jeff Sessions (AL) - will seek and win another term, so no change

Ted Stevens (AK) - he may retire, giving Tony Knowles an opening to replace him.

Mark Pryor (AR) - no change

Wayne Allard (CO) - may retire, and given Colorado is increasingly Democratic-leaning, I give the edge to Mark Udall to take this seat.

Joe Biden (DE) - no change

Saxby Chambliss (GA) - possible rematch with Max Cleland?  In which case, this seat is up for grabs, though I give the edge to Chambliss for now given the Republican-lean of the state. 

Larry Craig (ID) - no change

Dick Durbin (IL) - no change

Tom Harkin (IA) - no change

Pat Roberts (KS) - no change

Mitch McConnell (KY) - no change

Mary Landrieu (LA) - with Hurricane Katrina having decimated if not eliminated the political machine in New Orleans, she will be even more vulnerable than usual as a Democrat in a southern state.  If Bobby Jindal runs against her, I am calling this as a Republican pick-up.

Susan Collins (ME) - if she retires, the seat becomes a Democratic pick-up; if not, no change.

John Kerry (MA) -no change, and is not going anywhere if he's smart.

Carl Levin (MI) - may retire, giving Candice Miller an opening.  In which case, I call this as a possible Republican pick-up.

Norm Coleman (MN) - If Collin Peterson challenges him, I call this as a Democratic pick-up. 

Thad Cochran (MS) - no change

Max Baucus (MT) - no change

Chuck Hagel (NE) - no change

John Sununu (NH) - no change

Frank Lautenberg (NJ) - Will retire, and therefore this becomes a Republican pick-up.

Pete Domenici (NM) - if he retires, this would likely remain Republican if Heather Wilson runs.

Elizabeth Dole (NC) - no change

Jim Inhofe (OK) - no change

Gordon Smith (OR) - possible Democratic pick-up if former Gov. John Kitzhaber runs.

Jack Reed (RI) - no change

Lindsay Graham (SC) - no change

Tim Johnson (SD) - Will likely face Gov. Mike Rounds, in which case this becomes a Republian pick-up.

Lamar Alexander (TN) - no change

John Cornyn (TX) - no change

John Warner (VA) - if he retires, this seat will remain Republican especially if Tom Davis runs to replace him.

Jay Rockefeller (WV) - no change

Mike Enzi (WY) - no change

[WMS]

Pete Domenici (NM) - if he retires, this would likely remain Republican if Heather Wilson runs.

That is a definite possibility although a lot would depend on the political mood in 2008. Also on other considerations I mention below...

Domenici (NM) - Might retire; if Richardson is heading the ticket a Dem pickup is very likely

Improves the odds, yes; very likely, no. I direct you to the NM 2002 Commissioner of Public Land race, a statewide race where, in a very good year for NM Dems (in large part to Richardson boosting the Dem vote totals), the Reps still took the office because the Dems ran...wait for it...a political hack from Northern New Mexico (and a rather corrupt one, at that). If they run another such candidate in 2008 - and they very well might, knowing local politics here - Richardson's presence on the ticket is no guarantee of victory.

It all depends on the candidates, really...

[ian]

BUMP for Preston's response.

[WMS]

Good point WMS.

Thank you. The primary election will be every bit as important as the general election in an open seat scenario...not that I get to vote in it o/c.

[TomC]

I seriously doubt Alexander will retire. And he's seen as pretty fair by moderate independents, so I don't see much trouble for him.

[Republican Michigander]

There's a lot of talk about Levin retiring as he'll be 74, but I'm not sure he'll do so. After 30 years in the senate, he might want to go for 36. Strom lasted there till he's 100.

If he goes, I'd say these are the best chances for each party in order.

GOP
1. Mike Rogers
2. Candace Miller
3. Pete Hoekstra

DEM
1. John Cherry
2. Bart Stupak (although he's pro-life which could be trouble in a primary)
3. Chris Dingell (Although he may wait for his dad's seat or keep his judgeship instead

[TheresNoMoney]

Carl Levin should stay. I expect the Democrats to gain the majority in the 2008 elections.