FL-Morning Consult: Scott +1

[Calthrina950]

While I am doubtful that Rick Scott will win, because of the national environment, I still think that people are grossly overestimating how well Nelson will do. It would not surprise me if this race were decided by 2 points or less. Florida is the quintessential example of a tossup state, and the polls here are reflective of that. 

[Calthrina950]

While I am doubtful that Rick Scott will win, because of the national environment, I still think that people are grossly overestimating how well Nelson will do. It would not surprise me if this race were decided by 2 points or less. Florida is the quintessential example of a tossup state, and the polls here are reflective of that. 

Don't you always predict Democrats will lose or otherwise do badly?

No. I merely try to provide what is, in my view, a realistic opinion on these races. I think that the Democrats are poised to make gains this year, and that they will take back the House, but I don't think they should get too overconfident. Overconfidence tends to hurt more than it helps.

[Calthrina950]

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

When you’ve won your last two elections by 22 and 13 points, respectively, and then struggle to hold your seat in a massive Democratic wave year, that’s definitely underwhelming, regardless of the fact that Scott is obviously Nelson's strongest challenger yet.

And it's also interesting how Nelson's margins have declined as time goes on. It is clear from the polls that this race will be decided by single digits either way. Perhaps it's also a sign of the intensified political polarization that has impacted the country...

[Calthrina950]

Under few circumstances is a win by either party on the statewide level underwhelming. It is just such a competitive state that even the narrowest edging out is a big win.

When you’ve won your last two elections by 22 and 13 points, respectively, and then struggle to hold your seat in a massive Democratic wave year, that’s definitely underwhelming, regardless of the fact that Scott is obviously Nelson's strongest challenger yet.

And it's also interesting how Nelson's margins have declined as time goes on. It is clear from the polls that this race will be decided by single digits either way. Perhaps it's also a sign of the intensified political polarization that has impacted the country...

Nelson will almost certainly retire in 2024, due to his age (he'd be 81 by then) and his declining political strength.

This is exactly what I was thinking.