NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[bedstuy]

Lhota's favorables (29-41) are bad; de Blasio's are great (65-19). Not sure there's much else left to do here but wait until election day.

The former head of the MTA isn't popular!?  Inconceivable!  You would think being associated with fare hikes, rats and a faint smell of urine would send your poll numbers skyrocketing.

[Lief 🗽]

Also, de Blasio is winning more Republicans than Lhota is winning Democrats.

[traininthedistance]

Lhota's favorables (29-41) are bad; de Blasio's are great (65-19). Not sure there's much else left to do here but wait until election day.

The former head of the MTA isn't popular!?  Inconceivable!  You would think being associated with fare hikes, rats and a faint smell of urine would send your poll numbers skyrocketing.

You jest, but I honestly believe that Joe Lhota would be more popular if he was running on his MTA experience and running away from his Giuliani connections, rather than the other way around.  He actually wasn't half bad as the head of the MTA, except of course for the whole leaving them after ten months (or so) to run for mayor bit.

[bedstuy]

Lhota's favorables (29-41) are bad; de Blasio's are great (65-19). Not sure there's much else left to do here but wait until election day.

The former head of the MTA isn't popular!?  Inconceivable!  You would think being associated with fare hikes, rats and a faint smell of urine would send your poll numbers skyrocketing.

You jest, but I honestly believe that Joe Lhota would be more popular if he was running on his MTA experience and running away from his Giuliani connections, rather than the other way around.  He actually wasn't half bad as the head of the MTA, except of course for the whole leaving them after ten months (or so) to run for mayor bit.

No, I agree that Lhota did a fine job with the MTA.  It's just something where you only notice when the subway is messed up and take it for granted when it works efficiently.

[Brittain33]

Why the deBlasio inevitability?  Did everyone who voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg move to Hoboken?

I don't think Giuliani himself running on his own 1993 platform would win in NYC given how much has changed in the city since then. "Crime is out of control!" isn't true.

[cinyc]

FWIW, de Blasio is up to 40.88% of the vote after the machine recanvass and count of emergency ballots.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I can't say I ever expected Lhota to have a chance winning, but seeing him that low in the polls is still rather sad.

[DINGO Joe]

FWIW, de Blasio is up to 40.88% of the vote after the machine recanvass and count of emergency ballots.

There were obviously a large number of errors in recording and sending in the vote on election night, as all four of the minor candidates lost votes.  I know NYC is bigger than most states, but there just seemed to be quite a bit of carelessness.

Changes in vote totals from the final machine canvas:

DeBlasio           +6384
Thompson        +2274
Quinn               +1260
Liu                     +163
Weiner               +64

Salgado              -91
Credico             -1278
Albanese           -497
Grimaldi             -428

Besides fixing errors that does include the 40+ precincts that didn't report election night

[hopper]

Lhota's favorables (29-41) are bad; de Blasio's are great (65-19). Not sure there's much else left to do here but wait until election day.

DeBlasio is like a rock star right now. I just think people in NYC want different economic policies than the ones they have been getting from Guliani/Bloomberg for the last 20 years. Its sort of like after Koch/Dinkins NYC'ers wanted something different.

[Badger]

NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll
De Blasio (D) 65%
Lhota (R) 22%
Carrion (I) 3%
Undecided 9%

Likely voters; MoE +/- 3.9%

Jeez. At this rate Lhota will have trouble even carrying Staten Island.

[© tweed]

Quinnipiac also dropped a poll today, echoing the NBC/WSJ poll, putting de Blasio up 66-25%.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1955

[Badger]

Quinnipiac also dropped a poll today, echoing the NBC/WSJ poll, putting de Blasio up 66-25%.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1955

Wow. So much for wondering if WSJ was an outlier.

This'll tighten some, but again the race now looks like over bragging rights for the Island.

[© tweed]

also from that poll, a perfect down-the-line class gap in Bloomberg's approvals.

[Eraserhead]

De Blasio is +12% among whites and performing like Obama among blacks. It's over.

I can't really see Lhota losing Staten Island though.

[Badger]

De Blasio is +12% among whites and performing like Obama among blacks. It's over.

I can't really see Lhota losing Staten Island though.

Looking at the last several mayoral elections (1997 on), SI has run an average of + low-mid 20's R compared to the citywide vote, and that's including the Conservative party line. Even by those standards Lhota is in trouble. Furthermore, the last two elections the combined Rep/Conservative vote (Bloomburg didn't have the Con nod either time) ran only about 20.1% and 17.9% respectively ahead of the combinded citywide percentage, and the Democratic candidate (under all party lines) only ran in the high teens behind their citywide percentage.

These recent numbers are a substantial drop from the R/Con PVI Staten Island had in the 90's and 2001. I don't know if that drop is reflective of changing demographics and politics on the Island, or some particular distaste Islanders had (have) for Bloomburg compared to other Republicans that Lhota can counter the trend on (though remember, I'm including the Conservative candidate's % in these numbers, so Lhota's increased appeal to conservatives turned off by Bloomy's liberal-moderate stances is already factored in).

Either way, according to these numbers Lhota is going to have get greater than a +20% PVI off the Island to carry it. Even if he can close the race by a few points by November he'll still need to do about as well as Bloomburg and the Con candidate combined did in SI against Thompson in 09. So yes, I think he could realistically lose it.

[Eraserhead]

It's definitely going to be the closest borough but I think he'll still carry it (as of now at least).

[Miles]

Obama is endorsing de Blasio:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Eraserhead]

Joe Lhota: de Blasio is a communist, blah blah blah.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/joe-lhota-bill-de-blasio-new-york-mayor-race-2013-97270.html?hp=r4

The more I read about de Blasio, the more I like him.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2013/09/8534060/right-thing-do-de-blasio-explains-his-nicaragua-work

De Blasio refuses to apologize for his support of the good guys in Nicaragua. What a hero. Lhota and the right-wing media is looking increasingly desperate and out of touch with these attacks.

[Badger]

Joe Lhota: de Blasio is a communist, blah blah blah.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/joe-lhota-bill-de-blasio-new-york-mayor-race-2013-97270.html?hp=r4

The more I read about de Blasio, the more I like him.

This will play SOOOO well for Lhota running in NYC.

[ag]

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2013/09/8534060/right-thing-do-de-blasio-explains-his-nicaragua-work

De Blasio refuses to apologize for his support of the good guys in Nicaragua. What a hero. Lhota and the right-wing media is looking increasingly desperate and out of touch with these attacks.

Now, now. Calling Sandinistas "good guys" is not at all smart or appropriate. That their opponents weren't, mostly, altar boys themselves, is, of course, true. But it was (and, actually, is : ) ) a pretty nasty regime.

[© tweed]

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2013/09/8534060/right-thing-do-de-blasio-explains-his-nicaragua-work

De Blasio refuses to apologize for his support of the good guys in Nicaragua. What a hero. Lhota and the right-wing media is looking increasingly desperate and out of touch with these attacks.

Now, now. Calling Sandinistas "good guys" is not at all smart or appropriate. That their opponents weren't, mostly, altar boys themselves, is, of course, true. But it was (and, actually, is : ) ) a pretty nasty regime.

having the USA pelt you with bombs for years on end and fund death squads unsurprisingly brings out the worst in people.

[DINGO Joe]

NYC finished the final vote count yesterday and Deblasio ended up with 40.81% of the vote, if he had fallen below 40% then a runoff would have been listed on the ballot even though Thompson withdrew, and the runoff is Oct 1st, 4 days after they finished the official count.

[cinyc]

The Public Advocate runoff is being held today.  It is Daniel Squadron versus Letitia James, since neither received more than 40% of the vote in the primaries. 

The runoff will likely cost the city more than the yearly budget of the Public Advocate's office.

[Eraserhead]

We'll probably see the return of tribal voting in a big way in this runoff.