America With Proportional Representation

[DC Al Fine]

Suppose that during the progressive era, the USA adopted proportional representation. What would the party system look like? Suppose for the sake of argument they use something like the German system where there is a threshold, but winning a few FPTP seats ensures proportional seats even if the threshold is not met.

[Lief 🗽]

Hard to say. I think the most cliche scenario is a viable, enduring socialist or progressive party emerging in the 1910s and taking the place of one of the Republicans or Democrats (like Labour), or becoming a very strong third party like the NDP in Canada (more likely). You could also see a Dixiecrat Party emerging in the 1950s, which could result in a nightmarish America where an anti-civil rights party holds the balance of power after every election.

I don't know if there's a political science explanation for why some countries with proportional representation only end up as essentially two/two and a half systems parties (like Germany) while others (like Israel or the Scandinavian countries) have many smaller parties that form large coalitions. But, intuitively at least, I feel like America would be more like Germany, with a large center-left party, a large center-right party, and then 2-3 smaller parties.

[Skill and Chance]

Hard to say. I think the most cliche scenario is a viable, enduring socialist or progressive party emerging in the 1910s and taking the place of one of the Republicans or Democrats (like Labour), or becoming a very strong third party like the NDP in Canada (more likely). You could also see a Dixiecrat Party emerging in the 1950s, which could result in a nightmarish America where an anti-civil rights party holds the balance of power after every election.

I don't know if there's a political science explanation for why some countries with proportional representation only end up as essentially two/two and a half systems parties (like Germany) while others (like Israel or the Scandinavian countries) have many smaller parties that form large coalitions. But, intuitively at least, I feel like America would be more like Germany, with a large center-left party, a large center-right party, and then 2-3 smaller parties.

If the US had PR, there would likely have been a Civil Rights Act passed as part of the New Deal.  A Progressive absolute majority would be likely after 1932 and almost assured after 1936.  They would be free from Dixiecrat influence and more dependent on Northern minorities than real life 1930's Democrats.

[Wilfred Day]

Suppose that during the progressive era, the USA adopted proportional representation. What would the party system look like?

It did, in New York City in 1936. Between 1937 and 1945, council members were selected not from individual districts, but through a system of proportional representation (STV) in which political parties and nonaligned candidates won election in proportion to their total boroughwide votes. In 1945, it elected eight council members from Brooklyn, five from Manhattan, five from the Bronx, four from Queens, and one from Richmond. The result was two Communists, two Labor (left enough to work with communists), two Liberals (left of the Democrats), 14 Democrats, and three Republicans. STV was soon repealed. In 1949, New York elected 24 Democrats out of 25 councillors.

STV had been adopted in other cities in the 1930s. It had similar results, followed by similar repeal, and sunk without a trace (except in Cambridge).

Surely the same would have happened nationally.  No change.

[Person Man]

Hard to say. I think the most cliche scenario is a viable, enduring socialist or progressive party emerging in the 1910s and taking the place of one of the Republicans or Democrats (like Labour), or becoming a very strong third party like the NDP in Canada (more likely). You could also see a Dixiecrat Party emerging in the 1950s, which could result in a nightmarish America where an anti-civil rights party holds the balance of power after every election.

I don't know if there's a political science explanation for why some countries with proportional representation only end up as essentially two/two and a half systems parties (like Germany) while others (like Israel or the Scandinavian countries) have many smaller parties that form large coalitions. But, intuitively at least, I feel like America would be more like Germany, with a large center-left party, a large center-right party, and then 2-3 smaller parties.

Basically, we would have a permanent TEA Party and a permanent Green Party that form coalitions with the Dems or the GOP (which will probably be where they were in the 70s).

[DC Al Fine]

I don't know if there's a political science explanation for why some countries with proportional representation only end up as essentially two/two and a half systems parties (like Germany) while others (like Israel or the Scandinavian countries) have many smaller parties that form large coalitions. But, intuitively at least, I feel like America would be more like Germany, with a large center-left party, a large center-right party, and then 2-3 smaller parties.

I think it's down to two factors:

1) How high the threshold is (low threshold=high # parties)
2) How heterogeneous the society is

For example, Israel has secular Jews, religious Jews, and Arabs, each with their own parties. The Netherlands has orthodox Calvinists who won't vote for mainstream conservatives.

Given the makeup of the USA, I agree that a German style setup is most likely. Taking a guess...

Right

• Mainstream conservatives
• Christian socons
• Libertianish folks

Left

• Mainstream liberals
• Labour/hard left party

Most of the big names would stay within the big parties. Clintons would be liberal, Bush/McCain/Romney would be conservatives etc. What would change would be the outsiders' affiliation. Sanders would have a party of his own, as would Ron Paul. Santorum and Buchanan never would've tried to win the main right wing party's nomination.[/list]

[Skill and Chance]

I don't know if there's a political science explanation for why some countries with proportional representation only end up as essentially two/two and a half systems parties (like Germany) while others (like Israel or the Scandinavian countries) have many smaller parties that form large coalitions. But, intuitively at least, I feel like America would be more like Germany, with a large center-left party, a large center-right party, and then 2-3 smaller parties.

I think it's down to two factors:

1) How high the threshold is (low threshold=high # parties)
2) How heterogeneous the society is

For example, Israel has secular Jews, religious Jews, and Arabs, each with their own parties. The Netherlands has orthodox Calvinists who won't vote for mainstream conservatives.

Given the makeup of the USA, I agree that a German style setup is most likely. Taking a guess...

Right

• Mainstream conservatives
• Christian socons
• Libertianish folks

Left

• Mainstream liberals
• Labour/hard left party

Most of the big names would stay within the big parties. Clintons would be liberal, Bush/McCain/Romney would be conservatives etc. What would change would be the outsiders' affiliation. Sanders would have a party of his own, as would Ron Paul. Santorum and Buchanan never would've tried to win the main right wing party's nomination.[/list]

I think there would also be a Civil Rights party on the left, which would probably begin as a single issue effort among Northern black voters to oppose Woodrow Wilson in 1916.  It would ironically be the same strategy as the mid-20th century Dixiecrats but in reverse: deny either party a majority in congress and caucus with the one that will pass a civil rights act.  A modern Civil Rights party would incorporate gay voters and many college students.  They would mostly stay away from economic issues and form coalitions with the libertarians when advantageous.  VRA districts would make this party unusually strong in the House in a multi-party system.

[Peter the Lefty]

I think it might be likelier for this civil rights party to merge into Labour.  But yeah, I could see a fusion of the Socialists and the La Follette Progressives merging into one "Labour" Party, while Wilsonite Democrats and Charles Evans Hughes Republicans (and probably a lot of TR's former supporters as well) form a mildly progressive center-to-center-left party or bloc.  The Republicans would become your equivalent of most Anglophone center-right Tory parties.  Southern Dixiecrats would end up forming their own party.  I could also see a Civil Rights Party becoming big initially, but I'd imagine it would merge with Labour not after too long.  Eventually a Libertarian Party might emerge, and eventually a Green Party as well.