Save for any realignment, is NC about to become solid blue?

[indietraveler]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/rapidly-changing-north-carolina-becoming-key-swing-state-n604186


I wasn't aware the demographic changes were that big in the last 15 or so years. If this continues, does the state become safe D in say, 8 years?

[Xing]

About to? No, but it's definitely becoming more competitive. If the trend continues, it could be very close to the tipping point in the 2020s.

[Senator-elect Spark]

No, maybe Lean D in the future

[This account no longer in use.]

It might start leaning blue, but it won't be solid for a good 20 years.

[Camaro33]

2028ish it will be lean blue in a pure toss up election (or Dem > +0 PVI). North Carolina is growing enormously due to New England transplants and having areas like the Research Triangle, Charlotte, and the triad which are attractive to younger people to move to and live.

My guess is the midwest/rust belt is the area of the country that becomes R in PVI to compensate. In a non-squeaker Republican win, however, North Carolina for at least an entire generation will be part of that winning map.

[hopper]

Maybe, maybe not. I say 50/50 at this point.

[DS0816]

It should be noted that, since 1984, North Carolina and neighboring Virginia have been no more than 5.98 percentage points in their spread from each other. And, in 2012, it marked the first time when they carried differently officially it was North Carolina which was in the Republican column and Virginia in the Democratic column.


MARGINS SPREAD • 1984–2012:
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
• 1984: 1.19
• 1988: 4.25
• 1992: 3.59
• 1996: 2.74
• 2000: 4.80
• 2004: 4.24
• 2008: 5.98
• 2012: 5.92


From the 25 presidential elections of 1916–2012, the two states carried differently in 1952, 1956, 1960, 1976, and 2012.

[Ljube]

No. At least not yet.

[RINO Tom]

Republicans will change their platform to stay alive WELL before NC is completely lost for them.

[TarHeelDem]

Eventually, yes. It could be lean blue as early as 2024 though.

[Weiner/Holder]

No it doesn't have the internal dynamics needed but it is purplish red and will remain so.  It will vote Republican unless Democrats win by 4 or more.  I don't see a leftward trend since 2008 but did see it before that though when Bush won by less in 2004 than he did in 2000.

[Kingpoleon]

Why is it okay to say things about how LA, AL, MS, GA, SC, and NC will soon be more favorable to Democrats? When people on here also mention the Mideast(MN, IL, WI, and MI) is trending Republican, we make fun of them, saying things like "LOL Mideast GOP because muh working class whites!"

It seems Atlas can only accept a realignment helping Democrats.

[hopper]

If the GOP keeps on nominating Presidential Candidates that are ex-clusive to Minority Voters or don't bring a "vision for the future" on "policy making" maybe over the long term NC will be like Washington State or Oregon and be like D+5. I don;t see NC being as Dem as say Maryland at the Presidential Level in the long term future. If the GOP nominates Presidential Candidates that have a "vision for the future" on "policy making" and in-clusive to Minority Voters I do think NC will be a battleground state for a long while.

[The Ex-Factor]

Why is it okay to say things about how LA, AL, MS, GA, SC, and NC will soon be more favorable to Democrats? When people on here also mention the Mideast(MN, IL, WI, and MI) is trending Republican, we make fun of them, saying things like "LOL Mideast GOP because muh working class whites!"

It seems Atlas can only accept a realignment helping Democrats.

I mean, that's a bit of a false equivalency. Long-term demographic changes simply favor the Democratic Party. As Lindsey Graham famously said, there's not enough angry white guys to stay in business in the long term.

[hopper]

Why is it okay to say things about how LA, AL, MS, GA, SC, and NC will soon be more favorable to Democrats? When people on here also mention the Mideast(MN, IL, WI, and MI) is trending Republican, we make fun of them, saying things like "LOL Mideast GOP because muh working class whites!"

It seems Atlas can only accept a realignment helping Democrats.

Well I say LA, AL, SC, and MS the Dems probably won't win in the near future. Yes GA they have a shot at in the near future.

The Upper Midwestern States has basically stayed stable in terms of PVI since 2000 at "Lean D" except for Ohio(being purple) and Indiana(Lean R.) If you want to include Iowa(Toss Up-Tilt D.)

[Virginiá]

Why is it okay to say things about how LA, AL, MS, GA, SC, and NC will soon be more favorable to Democrats? When people on here also mention the Mideast(MN, IL, WI, and MI) is trending Republican, we make fun of them, saying things like "LOL Mideast GOP because muh working class whites!"

It seems Atlas can only accept a realignment helping Democrats.

Because at various periods in time, the parties are not necessarily on equal footing and/or not facing equal headwinds. Just because a slew of states trends one way doesn't mean the other party gets their own batch of favorable trends. It's not like Republicans have not had their own periods of dominance and favorable trends. Eventually the pendulum swings back and we are now in a time where Democrats are on the receiving end.

That being said, I think the results of this election will help us understand more about what is going on in the rust belt / Great Lakes states, but as it stands now, there are few overwhelmingly trends that favor Republicans like demographics are for Democrats in states like, say, VA/CO/NV.

Republicans only have themselves to blame for digging themselves into a demographic hole. Instead of actually trying to expand their coalition, they settled for cheap, destructive politics to win elections in the short term, which helped damage and continue to damage their long-term prospects.

[pppolitics]

It follows wherever Virginia is going.

[Kingpoleon]

Why is it okay to say things about how LA, AL, MS, GA, SC, and NC will soon be more favorable to Democrats? When people on here also mention the Mideast(MN, IL, WI, and MI) is trending Republican, we make fun of them, saying things like "LOL Mideast GOP because muh working class whites!"

It seems Atlas can only accept a realignment helping Democrats.

Because at various periods in time, the parties are not necessarily on equal footing and/or not facing equal headwinds. Just because a slew of states trends one way doesn't mean the other party gets their own batch of favorable trends. It's not like Republicans have not had their own periods of dominance and favorable trends. Eventually the pendulum swings back and we are now in a time where Democrats are on the receiving end.

That being said, I think the results of this election will help us understand more about what is going on in the rust belt / Great Lakes states, but as it stands now, there are few overwhelmingly trends that favor Republicans like demographics are for Democrats in states like, say, VA/CO/NV.

Republicans only have themselves to blame for digging themselves into a demographic hole. Instead of actually trying to expand their coalition, they settled for cheap, destructive politics to win elections in the short term, which helped damage and continue to damage their long-term prospects.

Realignments traditionally help both parties in different states. It's not neccessrily an equal amount, but it does happen. For example, as California, New York, and New England trended Democrat immensely from 1956 to 1996, the South began realigning largely for the Republicans.

[Virginiá]

Realignments traditionally help both parties in different states. It's not neccessrily an equal amount, but it does happen. For example, as California, New York, and New England trended Democrat immensely from 1956 to 1996, the South began realigning largely for the Republicans.

That's true, and we could very well begin to see some shifts in some states sometime within the next 10 years towards Republicans (maybe this cycle, or maybe 2020, and so on). I don't know which states, but I think at least Iowa and Pennsylvania seem to have some potential. I have mixed thoughts on WI/MI for various reasons.

We just need more data right now.

[RINO Tom]

Realignments traditionally help both parties in different states. It's not neccessrily an equal amount, but it does happen. For example, as California, New York, and New England trended Democrat immensely from 1956 to 1996, the South began realigning largely for the Republicans.

That's true, and we could very well begin to see some shifts in some states sometime within the next 10 years towards Republicans (maybe this cycle, or maybe 2020, and so on). I don't know which states, but I think at least Iowa and Pennsylvania seem to have some potential. I have mixed thoughts on WI/MI for various reasons.

We just need more data right now.

This will sound ridiculous, I fully admit that: we need a non-Obama, non-Trump election to predict trends 30 years or more into the future.  Obama inspired a lot of minority turnout and support that previous Democrats hadn't, and he definitely appealed to some independents who would have maybe voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004.  Also, Trump is (IMO) uniquely toxic to racial minorities.