Bullfinch Group: AK, CA, HI, OR, WA

[wbrocks67]

Alaska
Trump (R) 55%
Biden (D) 36%
Unsure 8%

California
Biden (D) 59%
Trump (R) 34%
Unsure 7%

Hawaii
Biden (D) 57%
Trump (R) 38%
Unsure 5%

Oregon
Biden (D) 52%
Trump (R) 40%
Unsure 8%

Washington (Senator Smiley approves)
Trump (R) 46%
Biden (D) 45%
Unsure 10%

https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Independent-Center-2024-Pacific-State-Survey-Toplines.pdf

[President Johnson]

One is not like the others.

[iceman]

Trump wins Washington by 1 but loses Oregon by 12? Too crazy to believe


the only thing that seemed possible is the California poll. Alaska I think is too far off I believe.

[wbrocks67]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

[wbrocks67]

For context here are the 2020 recalls:
Alaska: Trump +11 (46-35)
California: Biden +23 (56-33)
Hawaii: Biden +20 (55-35)
Oregon: Biden +13 (47-34)
Washington: Biden +5 (45-40)

Kind of funny that based on this, Biden is doing completely fine and 2020 redux in CA, HI, OR based on their recalls. Recall is correct in Alaska, so guess that one is a bad poll for him. 2020 recall for WA is Biden +5 so if you shift the current result about 14% leftward, you get a somewhat realistic result lol

[President Johnson]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.

However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.

[wbrocks67]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.

However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.

Alaska voters in this poll also rank Immigration as their top issue so ... probably a bad sample lol

[President Johnson]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.

However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.

Alaska voters in this poll also rank Immigration as their top issue so ... probably a bad sample lol

Or they're worried about Canadians pouring in en masse 

[Rand]

Trump winning Washington? That doesn’t Puget Sound right.

[RI]

Trump winning WA by 5 with RFK lol

[ꙮ]

Last time Washington voted right of Oregon for Pres was 1988. It hasn't been 10 points redder in over 100 years at least, and Washington has never gone Republican at the same time as Oregon goes Democratic.

There's a first for everything I suppose, but for some reason I doubt that a realignment of this scale completely untethered from other national trends is happening.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Bulls*** Group strikes again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Somehow this has reassured me about recent polling.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Somehow this has reassured me about recent polling.

Given they had Biden 5 points up in Michigan.

Not sure why you're reassured.

It's just a bullsh**t polling outfit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Somehow this has reassured me about recent polling.

Given they had Biden 5 points up in Michigan.

Not sure why you're reassured.

It's just a bullsh**t polling outfit.

It fits into a pattern that polls are being erratic and not exactly finding plausible results.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Somehow this has reassured me about recent polling.

Given they had Biden 5 points up in Michigan.

Not sure why you're reassured.

It's just a bullsh**t polling outfit.

It fits into a pattern that polls are being erratic and not exactly finding plausible results.

Swing state polls have been consistent for months now.. so not sure where the determination of erraticism is coming from.

[Vern]

They must have forgot to poll people in Seattle.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol the recalled 2020 vote in Washington is only Biden +5 (he won the state by 19 points). Complete garbage.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Oh hey these all look normal....Washington.....

Yeah if Trump gets within single digits I would be shocked.

But 1%....completely unbelievable. Did the rain sweep Seattle away?

 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullfinch has Trump up 6 in PA so they are trolling too, but Biden is back up to 60 in HI and CA which is good news for Newsom in 28 and Schiff

[Nyvin]

Washington (Senator Smiley approves)
Trump (R) 46%
Biden (D) 45%
Unsure 10%

This is utterly impossible, Trump is not winning WA in any scenario, or even becoming competitive in it.   

Seeing this really does make me think polling is screwed up, and I usually don't call BS about polling either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This pollster had Trump up 6 in PA

[100% pro-life no matter what]

So, I guess this is the map now /s

[NOVA Green]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.

However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.

I agree with you that AK numbers also look extremely sketch.

Sure, insert usual caveat about Alaska being one of the most difficult states to poll etc...

Sure, I could see a swing towards Trump here, especially because of recent executive actions which could impact oil and gas expansion projects into Wilderness areas.

Maybe inflation might also be a bit more of thing here, when it already costs a lot more for items such as food which need to be imported from the lower 48, etc...

Still it should be noted that Biden was the first Democratic GE Candidate to win Anchorage since LBJ in the '64 landslide.

Sure the city is only about 33% of the entire state's vote share, but considering that historically DEMs tend to perform better in rurals than cities here (Native American vote is a major lift), but still difficult to envision the PUB PRES swing suggested by this poll.

Juneau should still continue to be Solid DEM, and obviously MatSu is pretty close to maxed out for PUBs, and Fairbanks likely a similar gig, so difficult to see where the major swings might be occurring that this poll suggests.

[Dan the Roman]

One is not like the others.

Who knew Oregon would have a 4% rightward shift while neighboring Washington would have a 20% rightward shift at the same time lol

Washington numbers just seem like it's 2022 all over again. Senator Smiley can confirm.

However, I also highly doubt Trump is going to win Alaska by 19 points. Maybe half the margin at best.

I agree with you that AK numbers also look extremely sketch.

Sure, insert usual caveat about Alaska being one of the most difficult states to poll etc...

Sure, I could see a swing towards Trump here, especially because of recent executive actions which could impact oil and gas expansion projects into Wilderness areas.

Maybe inflation might also be a bit more of thing here, when it already costs a lot more for items such as food which need to be imported from the lower 48, etc...

Still it should be noted that Biden was the first Democratic GE Candidate to win Anchorage since LBJ in the '64 landslide.

Sure the city is only about 33% of the entire state's vote share, but considering that historically DEMs tend to perform better in rurals than cities here (Native American vote is a major lift), but still difficult to envision the PUB PRES swing suggested by this poll.

Juneau should still continue to be Solid DEM, and obviously MatSu is pretty close to maxed out for PUBs, and Fairbanks likely a similar gig, so difficult to see where the major swings might be occurring that this poll suggests.

I think everyone may be falling into the post 2012 error of seeing 2020 as a "trend" rather than a one-off. There were undoubtedly trends which built on those in 2018, 2016, and even 2014(Georgia) but there were also quite a few one--offers borrowed Biden votes from otherwise Republican voters who disagree with him on everything and may well find this to be among the most off-putting administrations of their lifetime. There are several of those in my office.

It is possible 2020 is not the real Biden/Democratic baseline and therefore the starting point for a trend is 5%+ lower.

I don't necessarily think that is the case, but there is a remarkable level of certainty on this board that no one changed their mind, whereas I think there is evidence Biden lost a chunk of his Republican 2020 support three years ago in 2021. That would also line up with Biden doing much worse in Utah polling.