What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Tartarus Sauce]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

Depending on the national mood, Democrats might not need to invest all that much into the Maryland race at all. Simply because of its heavily Democratic political composition and anti-Trump attitude, Hogan might be overtaken even by a generic Democrat if the Trump backlash grows large enough. Maryland will obviously be one of the most intense focal points if such a development were to occur.

I agree though that it's not the most imperative governor race, Maryland won't be swinging towards the Republicans anytime soon on either the federal or state level and Hogan tends not to rock the boat that much. Hogan very well could end up sinking himself though if he continues to issue unwise declarations of support for Trump's actions.

[Tartarus Sauce]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I don't know why they wouldn't just go for a clean 8-0 map if it does get struck down then. Just go full NCGOP. It's fairly easy to make actually, particularly if you have no qualms crossing the Bay.

Granted I'm not too knowledgeable about their last map drawing shenanigans, but I think it was more focused on incumbent protection. Also you're right, if there is anything Republicans have taught us about redistricting, it is that terrible maps can still be enacted anyway and used for a cycle or two (or three, or four... looking at you, Texas...) while the courts drag their feet on it.

This is what I don't get though, even if you take in partisan and incumbent protection considerations, the sheer disjointedness of the districts is completely unnecessary. I see no logical reason for the current "shapes" ---if you can even call them shapes--- of districts like 2 and 3. They're so bad I have to imagine it gets in the way of being able to actually outreach on constituent services because people have no clue which twisted snake of a district actually happens to narrowly encompass their street. You can make far less abominably shaped districts that still fulfill incumbent protections and gerrymandering purposes.