US House Redistricting: New York

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Once again, how exactly does Silver (who I understand is not an entirely powerless figure within the NY legislature) fit in with this antisemitic conspiracy?

Silver is the most power hungry person in this state (he would sell his mother down the river for a little more of it, and everyone knows it)

That would explain why he might (lol, might) indulge in gerrymandering for nakedly partisan reasons. It doesn't explain why he'd be part of an antisemitic conspiracy.

[Torie]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  I don't know any of this obviously. Anyway, hearing what you said, and examining again my lines in Brooklyn and parts of Queens, and bearing in mind the VRA, I jiggled them a bit. NY-08 now becomes the most GOP CD in the state. One of the reasons I did it, is that in my judgment, Park Slope fits better with lower Manhattan (NY-07), then Sunset Park does, so Sunset Park goes into NY-10, and it loses Park Slope (except for some somewhat black precincts), to NY-07.  (The way I drew the lines in Sunset Park between NY-12 and NY-10 is driven by trying to keep the rather large Asian community (where are they from I wonder?) in the hood as much as possible together with Asians in some adjacent areas, and in NY-12;  NY-10 gets mostly the Hispanics in Sunset Park, who maybe work the docks perhaps.) NY-12 gets a bit more Dem because of the few precincts it  needs to take in Sunset Park, while losing much of Bensonhurst to NY-08. I think the map looks better. The parks in the area help to define the lines along with the Queens-Brooklyn border on the east. The rather jagged line between NY-08 and NY-10 on NY-10's southwest side is driven by black precinct percentages. They fall off like a cliff as one moves to the SW.

I also cleaned up NY-06, and to a lessor extent NY-09 and NY-10.  They needed a bit of work. I think they look better now, and the minority percentages are upped a bit. I also tried to cut back the jut of NY-08 up to the north a bit to the extent I could, given other constraints, that I think a court might well care about.

I must say that this part of the world is really racially segregated. It's not like SoCal at all. Flatbush (the neighborhood in which my Dad was born (yes 100 years ago Flatbush had a considerable number of WASPS in it - it was an exurb), and to which I must go someday to see the home in which he lived until they ran out of money in 1918) I see has very few whites in it these days. Since the housing stock is still pretty good (at least the part my Dad lived in), that is good in the sense that it suggests a fair number of blacks have entered the lower middle class.

[Linus Van Pelt]

It's worth noting here that the current districts were negotiated at a time when gay marriage was pretty much off the radar of mainstream politics, 9/11 had not yet occurred, one could still claim coherently to support both the actually existing government of Israel and a negotiated end to the occupation in the near future, and the Vice President of the administration that had signed DOMA had just run with Joseph Lieberman and dominated the Jewish vote of all levels of religiosity against a ticket that showed every sign of replicating the old Reagan/Bush Sr. lens on middle east policy in which the highest priority was the Saudi alliance.

The assumption that Orthodox and non-Orthodox Jews constitute radically different voting blocs at the federal level is mostly a product of events after this period. Strange as it seems now, putting Boro Park with Jerry Nadler actually did seem like it made more sense both politically and demographically (though not of course geographically) than putting it with Vito Fossella.

[NY Jew]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  /Screenshot2011-09-11at25007PM.png[/img]

how do I do that and what map do you want to see

[NY Jew]

It's worth noting here that the current districts were negotiated at a time when gay marriage was pretty much off the radar of mainstream politics, 9/11 had not yet occurred, one could still claim coherently to support both the actually existing government of Israel and a negotiated end to the occupation in the near future, and the Vice President of the administration that had signed DOMA had just run with Joseph Lieberman and dominated the Jewish vote of all levels of religiosity against a ticket that showed every sign of replicating the old Reagan/Bush Sr. lens on middle east policy in which the highest priority was the Saudi alliance.

The assumption that Orthodox and non-Orthodox Jews constitute radically different voting blocs at the federal level is mostly a product of events after this period. Strange as it seems now, putting Boro Park with Jerry Nadler actually did seem like it made more sense both politically and demographically (though not of course geographically) than putting it with Vito Fossella.

that's not even close to true (any district that has Borough Park and Greenwich Village is by far the most gerrymandered district in the country)
Orthodox Jews rejected Solarz back in the 80's over Social Issues, remember Noach Dears opposition to the 1986 gay rights bill (one of his main reasons, which retrospect shows he was right that this will lead to gay marriage)

[Torie]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  /Screenshot2011-09-11at25007PM.png[/img]

how do I do that and what map do you want to see

You need to create a link to the maps that you want that make your case. If you tell me where the maps are, and which ones you want, I will put them up for you. The issue is what were the motives for the way the maps were created. Was it just due to Orthodox Jew animus, or can it be explained by other motives? The maps that you think show animus, without any other reasonable explanation, are the maps that you want put up I would think.

[Torie]

NY Jew, you would need to put up maps.  /Screenshot2011-09-11at25007PM.png[/img]

how do I do that and what map do you want to see

Here's the map which you requested that I put up:

[minionofmidas]

Where did Velazquez' district go, Torie?

[Torie]

Where did Velazquez' district go, Torie?

NY-06. It's 52.7% Hispanic. Crowley (now NY-11) and Velaquez need to swap CD's.  Nice try.  

The courts need to draw the lines. It's a beautiful thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

that's not even close to true (any district that has Borough Park and Greenwich Village is by far the most gerrymandered district in the country)

Haha.

Even if you want to maintain partisan outrage, you can still look at the North Carolina and Maryland maps to see how laughable this statement is.

[minionofmidas]

That's Crowley's district, Torie. If he gets challenged there, it's from the Bronx. It's not as if you're getting Crowley a majority white seat anyhow.
If a court draws the lines, it goes by legislative intent. That means it will view and treat the 12th as a protected district... even though it's not majority Hispanic, by the way. The 9th, not protected, in between everything, barely more contiguous than the outrageous 12th, doesn't stand a chance in that setting.

[Torie]

That's Crowley's district, Torie. If he gets challenged there, it's from the Bronx. It's not as if you're getting Crowley a majority white seat anyhow.
If a court draws the lines, it goes by legislative intent. That means it will view and treat the 12th as a protected district... even though it's not majority Hispanic, by the way. The 9th, not protected, in between everything, barely more contiguous than the outrageous 12th, doesn't stand a chance in that setting.

Actually, the new NY-06 is much like the old NY-12.  Just its number has changed. Moreover, even if it wasn't essentially the same CD (and it is essentially the same, just adjusted to get the Hispanic VAP up), the law is clear that one minority district can be canned, if another is created.  It is just a numbers game. I learned that from that guy lecturing to the redistricting commission in AZ about the voting rights act. Below is a map of the old NY-12 and new NY-06. Crowley's CD was chopped to bits.  But there is an open seat for him as it were in NY-11 if he can win the primary.

The tan area was in the old NY-12. The "N" areas are added to it, and the "L" areas were cut from it. It didn't change much.  Lewis I may have been born at night, but it wasn't last night.

[NY Jew]

that's not even close to true (any district that has Borough Park and Greenwich Village is by far the most gerrymandered district in the country)

Haha.

Even if you want to maintain partisan outrage, you can still look at the North Carolina and Maryland maps to see how laughable this statement is.

strange shapes are not the only way to to utterly gerrymander, It's perfectly possible to gerrymander with only squares if you put the 4 corners in the heart of a district you don't like.

is there any CD in NC or MD that has 2 contiguous areas with 50,000+ people 1 of which voted for McCain at a 90%+ rate and the other that voted for Obama at a 90%+ rate.

[muon2]

Just because Torie dislikes him doesn't mean the GOP would be willing to throw King under the bus (I must note he is by far the most senior Republican in New York's delegation.)

It depends on how much the Pubbies are willing to pay to prop up King. Sure, if they want to play the prop up Israel, and maybe Ackerman, in exchange for bleaching out King's CD some more game, OK. If the price is to give up a new GOP seat in Brooklyn, particularly one held by a newly elected Turner, that is just dumb.

If I were the NY Pubbies, I would just give the Dems my map, and say here is what we think is the default option. This is "the court" on which we are going to play. Deal with it.

I fixed my chart above btw, making it even more complicated and confusing.   I estimate that a court drawn map will cause the Dems to absorb net both the seats lost to NY, with the Pubbies breaking even. Or depending on how you view it,  the Pubbies lose a half seat from redistricting if you view NY-26 as unaffected by redistricting, but given that Hochul remains in danger since she was not helped enough by the new lines, the Pubs still come out even.

If it goes to court I think the Latinos will object loudly a map that only has one CD over 55% HVAP. I agree that black districts can elect candidates of choice with less than 50% BVAP - especially in areas with Latino population, but Latinos can readily shoaw that something approaching 60% HVAP is what they need.

That's what drove me towards this map early in the summer after the Weiner story broke.

So with a little squeezing I can make the districts neater. The LI black districts are now all a whisker over 50%. CD 12 gave up a few tenths as well. There is still a piece of CD 6 in Nassau, but it is small. Without it the best I could do is 49.2% black for CD 6. Here's the new map and revised table (changes in green).



CD 1 (blue Bishop) Moves from 51.4% Obama to 51.9% Obama
CD 2 (green Israel) Moves from 56.1% Obama to 59.8% Obama
CD 3 (purple King) Moves from 51.9% McCain to 55.1% McCain
CD 4 (red McCarthy) Moves from 58.0% Obama to 58.3% Obama
CD 5 (tan Ackerman) White plurality 38.5%, Asian VAP 31.4%
CD 6 (teal Meeks) Black VAP 50.2%
CD 7 (gray Crowley) White plurality 48.8%, Hisp VAP 23.4%, Black VAP 21.6%
CD 8 (slate Nadler) White majority 55.4%, Asian VAP 27.6%
CD 9 (cyan Grimm) Repaces NY-13, moves from 50.5% McCain to 57.0% McCain
CD 10 (orchid Towns) Black VAP 50.4%
CD 11 (chartreuse Clarke)Black VAP 50.1%
CD 12 (yellow Velazquez) Hisp VAP 58.9%
CD 13 (light blue Engel) Replaces NY-17, White plurality 38.5%, Black VAP 29.8%, Hisp VAP 24.3%
CD 14 (olive Maloney) White majority 68.7%
CD 15 (orange Rangel) Hisp VAP 52.3%, Black VAP 30.5%
CD 16 (lime Serrano) Hisp VAP 64.9%, Black VAP 27.4%

The three black districts on LI form a wall pushing the core Orthodox areas with Staten Is.

Velazquez' district is ugly, but at almost 59% HVAP it will elect the Latino population's candidate of choice, my guess is that I could and would draw it over 60% with block-level mapping.

[Torie]

Muon2, that is one ugly map!

I doubt a court would ever draw that. Would it change your mind as to what a court might do, if you were aware that the current NY-12, which elects an Hispanic as it is (Velaquez), is only 46.8% Hispanic, and as redrawn it is bumped up to 52.7% Hispanic?  It could be made higher by poaching some Hispanics from NY-15, which is 64.8% Hispanic (the two CD's would trade some precincts), but I doubt a court will do that. I wouldn't as the judge. Hispanics were able to elect a "candidate of their choice" at only 46.8%, so a fortiori they will be able to do so with 52.7% VAP.  My NY-06 is also 15.4% Asian, who also vote lightly in this area, which helps push the Hispanic percentage who actually vote up.  Blacks and whites only make up 30% of the VAP. It is not like Texas, where there is an Anglo/Hispanic competition, with next to no other players in much of Texas, and where the Anglos just don't vote for Hispanics unless they are Pubbies.    NYC by contrast is much more of a Dem machine operation, where the power brokers have a lot to say about who gets nominated. I assume all of the above was why Velaquez was nominated and won the Dem primary in the first instance.

Hopefully a judge is not going to be influenced by politics, and just follow the VRA, and try to connect communities of interest in reasonably compact districts that follow where possible appropriate jurisdictional and geographic boundaries. I think my CD boundaries try faithfully to do that. I gave it a lot of thought. I may have made some errors of course. I don't claim to intimately know the Big Apple, but I think I know it reasonably well.

Make sense?

[Napoleon]

Vote dilution does not by itself make a gerrymandered. Do you know how the term came to be?

[muon2]

Muon2, that is one ugly map!

I doubt a court would ever draw that. Would it change your mind as to what a court might do, if you were aware that the current NY-12, which elects an Hispanic as it is (Velaquez), is only 46.8% Hispanic, and as redrawn it is bumped up to 52.7% Hispanic?  It could be made higher by poaching some Hispanics from NY-15, which is 64.8% Hispanic (the two CD's would trade some precincts), but I doubt a court will do that. I wouldn't as the judge. Hispanics were able to elect a "candidate of their choice" at only 46.8%, so a fortiori they will be able to do so with 52.7% VAP.  My NY-06 is also 15.4% Asian, who also vote lightly in this area, which helps push the Hispanic percentage who actually vote up.  Blacks and whites only make up 30% of the VAP. It is not like Texas, where there is an Anglo/Hispanic competition, with next to no other players in much of Texas, and where the Anglos just don't vote for Hispanics unless they are Pubbies.    NYC by contrast is much more of a Dem machine operation, where the power brokers have a lot to say about who gets nominated. I assume all of the above was why Velaquez was nominated and won the Dem primary in the first instance.

Hopefully a judge is not going to be influenced by politics, and just follow the VRA, and try to connect communities of interest in reasonably compact districts that follow where possible appropriate jurisdictional and geographic boundaries. I think my CD boundaries try faithfully to do that. I gave it a lot of thought. I may have made some errors of course. I don't claim to intimately know the Big Apple, but I think I know it reasonably well.

Make sense?

Chicago is also a machine operation (perhaps more than any other), and testimony from MALDEF made it clear that they weren't going to rely on the machine to nominate their candidates. There are court decisions that say that just because someone from the minority group was elected, it doesn't guarantee that the minority group is able to elect the candidate of their choice.

And then there's the question of which election data to use. It's the primary that matters, not the general, in a city like Chicago. I would view NYC the same way. Primaries in IL can be quite polarized, and MALDEF asked for 65% total Hispanic in a district to believe it would elect a candidate of choice. That usually works out to HVAP around or just under 60%.

[Torie]

OK muon2, but I suspect the NY state judges in 2001 with their map didn't go down that road, although there have been court cases since of course.  I  am quite sure the CD I drew is legal from a VRA standpoint. There is no requirement to create an erose mess at these percentages. In any event, if it needs to be higher for whatever reason, the fix is to swap precincts between NY-15 and NY-06 as I mentioned above.  That is a relatively non erose and community of interest way to do it.  I bet however the Hispanics won't be pushing to do that, and I doubt Velaquez wants a lot of strange new territory anyway, unless perhaps from next door NY-15.

[NY Jew]

Vote dilution does not by itself make a gerrymandered. Do you know how the term came to be?

yes but that is not how the term is used today, not to mention Nadler's district is drawn very weird with the most diluted vote in the country which even using the word from 150 years ago this would be in the running.


doesn't mention salamander like districts either
Websters dictionary
transitive verb
1
: to divide (a territorial unit) into election districts to give one political party an electoral majority in a large number of districts while concentrating the voting strength of the opposition in as few districts as possible
2
: to divide (an area) into political units to give special advantages to one group <gerrymander a school district>

[muon2]

OK muon2, but I suspect the NY state judges in 2001 with their map didn't go down that road, although there have been court cases since of course.  I  am quite sure the CD I drew is legal from a VRA standpoint. There is no requirement to create an erose mess at these percentages. In any event, if it needs to be higher for whatever reason, the fix is to swap precincts between NY-15 and NY-06 as I mentioned above.  That is a relatively non erose and community of interest way to do it.  I bet however the Hispanics won't be pushing to do that, and I doubt Velaquez wants a lot of strange new territory anyway, unless perhaps from next door NY-15.

But, strange territory is exactly what you've given Velazquez. I don't think your CD-06 has any of her current district. I do think that what she wants will matter a lot to the national Latino groups. That's why much of my CD-12 is from her current district, as bad as that shape is.

[Torie]

OK muon2, but I suspect the NY state judges in 2001 with their map didn't go down that road, although there have been court cases since of course.  I  am quite sure the CD I drew is legal from a VRA standpoint. There is no requirement to create an erose mess at these percentages. In any event, if it needs to be higher for whatever reason, the fix is to swap precincts between NY-15 and NY-06 as I mentioned above.  That is a relatively non erose and community of interest way to do it.  I bet however the Hispanics won't be pushing to do that, and I doubt Velaquez wants a lot of strange new territory anyway, unless perhaps from next door NY-15.

But, strange territory is exactly what you've given Velazquez. I don't think your CD-06 has any of her current district. I do think that what she wants will matter a lot to the national Latino groups. That's why much of my CD-12 is from her current district, as bad as that shape is.

No per the map I drew, it has almost all of her old territory. Only its CD number changed!  Please look at the map I drew for Lewis making this very point. Thanks.

[muon2]

OK muon2, but I suspect the NY state judges in 2001 with their map didn't go down that road, although there have been court cases since of course.  I  am quite sure the CD I drew is legal from a VRA standpoint. There is no requirement to create an erose mess at these percentages. In any event, if it needs to be higher for whatever reason, the fix is to swap precincts between NY-15 and NY-06 as I mentioned above.  That is a relatively non erose and community of interest way to do it.  I bet however the Hispanics won't be pushing to do that, and I doubt Velaquez wants a lot of strange new territory anyway, unless perhaps from next door NY-15.

But, strange territory is exactly what you've given Velazquez. I don't think your CD-06 has any of her current district. I do think that what she wants will matter a lot to the national Latino groups. That's why much of my CD-12 is from her current district, as bad as that shape is.

No per the map I drew, it has almost all of her old territory. Only its CD number changed!  Please look at the map I drew for Lewis making this very point. Thanks.

Now I'm confused. I thought this was your map:





If so, then I read your CD-06 as a district similar to the current NY-07. Velazquez' NY-12 is primarily along the Queens-Brooklyn border with parts stretching south along the East River. Her district seems to be divided between CDs 7, 11 and 13 in the map above.

[Torie]

Yikes!  I thought that was Crowley's CD!  LOL.  My oh my.  OK, thanks muon2.  CD-09 is going to have to cross the border into Queens alas to pick up whites instead of Hispanics north of Broadway.  Man, I didn't realize there were that many Hispanics around. In fact there are so many, that the issue becomes whether to create two solid Hispanic CD's, or one solid and two more marginal perhaps. I see the fix.  It will mess up the map a bit, but not too much. The existing CD's are such a mess that it just got me confused. I thought that when I created a majority Hispanic CD by just giggling the lines a bit, and having looked at the existing Hispanic percentages in Velaquez's CD, that it must have been hers. The percentages just "fit" to well. My bad.

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally. That dog won't hunt. In any event, Crowley is going to end up with a very Hispanic CD after fixing generating the Velaquez CD with the Brooklyn-Queens border bisecting so that it has a sliver in Queens and a sliver in Kings, and then go and pick up the Hispanics near LaQuardia (sp) airport in Queens (that portion will be new to her).  NYC is segregation city isn't it?

[NY Jew]

Yikes!  I thought that was Crowley's CD!  LOL.  My oh my.  OK, thanks muon2.  CD-09 is going to have to cross the border into Queens alas to pick up whites instead of Hispanics north of Broadway.  Man, I didn't realize there were that many Hispanics around. In fact there are so many, that the issue becomes whether to create two solid Hispanic CD's, or one solid and two more marginal perhaps. I see the fix.  It will mess up the map a bit, but not too much. The existing CD's are such a mess that it just got me confused. I thought that when I created a majority Hispanic CD by just giggling the lines a bit, and having looked at the existing Hispanic percentages in Velaquez's CD, that it must have been hers. The percentages just "fit" to well. My bad.

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally. That dog won't hunt. In any event, Crowley is going to end up with a very Hispanic CD after fixing generating the Velaquez CD with the Brooklyn-Queens border bisecting so that it has a sliver in Queens and a sliver in Kings, and then go and pick up the Hispanics near LaQuardia (sp) airport in Queens (that portion will be new to her).  NYC is segregation city isn't it?

Ethnic not segregated (it's way more then just white), black, Hispanic, and Asian (which is the whole point I was trying to say in the 9th Congressional district)) you have Irish Neighborhoods, Italian Neighborhoods (once was subdivided in to where in Italy you came from not sure if it still is), Jewish Neighborhoods (further subdivided in to many different areas based on different types places of origin and type of Judaism you practice (and I mean diffrent types of Orthodoxy are clustered in different areas of the city)), African American Neighborhoods, Haitian Neighborhoods, Porto Rican Neighborhoods, Dominican Neighborhoods, gay Neighborhoods, hipster Neighborhoods, Yuppy Neighborhoods,  Chinese Neighborhoods, Korean Neighborhoods, Jamaican Neighborhoods ext.

[minionofmidas]

OK muon2, but I suspect the NY state judges in 2001 with their map didn't go down that road, although there have been court cases since of course.  I  am quite sure the CD I drew is legal from a VRA standpoint. There is no requirement to create an erose mess at these percentages. In any event, if it needs to be higher for whatever reason, the fix is to swap precincts between NY-15 and NY-06 as I mentioned above.  That is a relatively non erose and community of interest way to do it.  I bet however the Hispanics won't be pushing to do that, and I doubt Velaquez wants a lot of strange new territory anyway, unless perhaps from next door NY-15.

But, strange territory is exactly what you've given Velazquez. I don't think your CD-06 has any of her current district.

Looks like a fistful of Queens precincts.