Your Republican Contender Power Rankings/Probabilities

[Torie]

I just go KISS on this, based on my gut instincts and evaluations of the candidates. I really don't give a damn about the polls at this point.

I watched Rubio give a speech on CSPAN last night before the conservative group in SC (it seemed that almost all of them were over 50 over weight white people), and he put in a very poor performance. I really don't think he has the maturity or substance to run the distance. Neither does  Walker. He just doesn't have the depth of knowledge, and his lack of education is going to catch up with him. Now he is flip flopping in a pandering way on immigration. The press is going to eat him alive on that, as it should.

So that leaves Jeb. Jeb has his problems, and so far seems rather dispassionate about it all, and his last name really hurts. So in my view, if Jeb falters, the Pub establishment will go to Kasich, who I think has more depth than Rubio and Walker, and more passion and is a better speaker than Jeb, and has the right package to both win the nomination and be competitive in the general election. So the nominee will be either Bush or Kasich in all probability.

Candidates I have not named, all 15+ of them, I don't take seriously at all.  Yes, Cruz is a very articulate and charismatic and cynical demagogue, and does it all so much better than Newt ever did. So what? The Pub establishment knows he is political poison, and could take down all kinds of Pub congress critters if he got the nomination. He won't get it.