UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Silent Hunter]

This is a party whose entire representation could fit in a minibus. They can be ignored now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What is going on in the UK with acid attacks?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-44921479

That is disgraceful. Attacking a 3 year old with acid will permanently ruin his life.

[Silent Hunter]

It's put me off going into it as a career, that's for sure.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Goddamn identity politics.

[EPG]

Er, the JezPhone? Great. The next sovereignty referendum in the UK is indeed unlikely to occur in Scotland, but it will be due to Brexit.

[jaichind]

It seems EU gave Trump a bunch of trade concessions.

It seems May should adopt some of Trump's tactics as it tries to extricate itself from the EU. If a few hours of ``The Art of the Deal'' can secure something out of Juncker, does that not suggest that May can eventually secure some sort of deal?

[Silent Hunter]

They said that last year.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, she has the advantage that literally any one else taking over would basically lead to the Conservative party imploding

[cp]

I've never seen tory activists so angry and frustrated since the 90s, she managed to upset grassroot Tory activists with chequers deal and her handling of Brexit,
Tories are gonna lose next election, there will be some substantial voter apathy among Tory voters, it feels a lot like the 90s.

No Tory mp wants to get involved with Brexit negotiations,
Once it's done they'll rid of her, and blame all the choatic Brexit negotiations on her,
they are ruthless people, they will get rid of her just like they got rid of Ted Heath and Thatcher...

Corbyn will become PM, with a similar majority Blair got in 2005,

I doubt Corbyn will win such a large majority, even with an ideal UKIP/Tory splitting of the vote (which I don't think is likely anyway). If an election were held any time before March of next year Corbyn would probably win a large plurality or a tiny majority.

I'm also increasingly doubtful the Tories can get to March of next year without a major bust up: an election, a new PM, or a formal party split.

Overall, though, my read on the Tories is similar to Audrey's. There's a sort of mad desperation to their commentary online and, apparently, in closed meetings as well. One on one I've found they fall into two camps: quietly despairing/resigned, or apoplectic. The real problem is that the former is much larger, and constitutes the backbone of the party's organizational machine; the latter camp, by contrast, is rudderless. They have no one left to follow, no policy to advance.

Frighteningly, it could be that this latter camp will be the one that decides which of the options left to the government is taken: no Brexit, no deal, and/or an election. If they are as nihilistic as they seem, they just might pull the trigger and send themselves (with an election) or the country (with no deal) over the cliff.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It seems EU gave Trump a bunch of trade concessions.

It seems May should adopt some of Trump's tactics as it tries to extricate itself from the EU. If a few hours of ``The Art of the Deal'' can secure something out of Juncker, does that not suggest that May can eventually secure some sort of deal?

All that happened was Trump and Juncker agreed that the existing EU proposals could serve as a "deal". May's not gonna be able to do that even if she wants to.

[EPG]

I think Chequers 1 is dead. Chequers 2, thanks to Jacob Rees-Mogg, may make negotiating with the EU harder. But it may also be enough to keep Brexit supporters on side. And we know that Remainers are spineless. When it comes down to voting, they will swallow Conservatives / Corbyn. The only question is whether will Conservative voters will sit it out in the knowledge that Corbyn will take over.

[cp]

Well, if all we're going to do is trade anecdotes ...

I canvassed for a by-election with my LibDem supporting husband a few weeks ago. In Raab's constituency our first respondent was a former construction worker (he had clearly made good!) and he swore he would leave the country if Corbyn was elected. FWIW, he also said he was fed up with all parties and refused to vote.

On the matter of what the EU and the UK will be able to agree with regards to the Withdrawal Agreement ... it's not looking pretty. The hardline Brexiteer amendments from a couple weeks ago make it impossible for May to concede any further, but the EU has made it clear that the UK's proposal must make concessions in order for it to be legally viable (they happen to be right).

I suspect things will dither on until early September or so, followed by a sudden spike in frantic rhetoric just as the prospect of a deal permanently fades from view. Then it'll become a matter of how Tory/parliamentary politics plays out. Could mean a new PM, a general election, or a second referendum, or some combination thereof.

[parochial boy]

Well, if all we're going to do is trade anecdotes ...

I canvassed for a by-election with my LibDem supporting husband a few weeks ago. In Raab's constituency our first respondent was a former construction worker (he had clearly made good!) and he swore he would leave the country if Corbyn was elected. FWIW, he also said he was fed up with all parties and refused to vote.

The ironic thing being that, once the UK leaves the EU he won't be able to...

FWIW, my money is on some sort of last minute agreement to extend the article 50 period, once the shear height of the cliff edge becomes obvious. Although, as EPG pointed out, the remainers are spineless whereas the fantical Brexiters are reckless, and seem to have May in their pocket for the time being

[Antonio the Sixth]

This sounds like pretty ridiculous spin. Mindless, superficial identity politicking around the EU is not going to destroy two parties with traditions dating back multiple centuries. If there's a new referendum and hard-Brexiteers win that one too, then we'll get hard Brexit, and both sides will learn to live with it. I for one think it's in Britain's interest to stay in the customs union, but whatever outcome it is, it won't be the end of the word, and it will bring some closure to this stupid, stupid debate. Then, hopefully, they can start debating stuff that really matters, like funding the NHS, nationalizing the railways, economic democracy, etc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is change ongoing in the electoral coalitions of both parties, sure, I'm not denying that. But it's not change on the kind of cataclysmic level that the source you cited claimed.

[Blair]

More rumours about Vince Cable getting pushed down the stairs

[parochial boy]

Yes the conservative party is an old party and have been in existence for centuries but labour came into power in the 1920s replacing the Liberal party.

Conservatives won seats like Stoke on Trent south, Mansfield, Walsall north, Derbyshire north east, those seats all been labour since the 1930s
They came close in Wakefield, penistone and Stockbridge, Ashfield, bishop Auckland, etc
 All those seats are tribal working class Labour seats been voting Labour since Stanley Baldwin was prime minister.

Nobody knows what will happen, or how voters will react, but if Labour continues to take white workings class voters for granted they'll be wiped out in the north and midland just like they've been wiped out in Scotland..

I mean look at the result in penistone and Stockbridge, it's a steel town with former minning communities Dodworth and west Barnsley
Results were :
Lab: 22,807
Con: 21,485
Labour won it by 1,322 votes, more then 16% swing to the conservatives, now where did swing come from ......
Mansfield is also a former minning area..

Some Labour mps like Caroline Lucas and Gareth Snell (representing leave constitutncies) both indicated we will not vote for a second refendum bill.

I think remaining in the EU via a second referendum or part of EEA plus customs union( basically the status quo) is what will ultimately happen.

That of course, ignores the special circumstances in Mansfield and Walsall, as well as the demographic change that is especially taking place in the likes of Penistone and Stocksbridge or Bishop Auckland. Those places are seeing a lot of new builds, property owners, reasonably affluent middle class types who work in Sheffield or Newcastle and vote Conservative like their exurban counterparts do all over the country. (Same with the working class Thames estuary constituencies in the Thames estuary, which simply aren't the places they used to be)

The counter argument to that is really the way in which other working class parts of the country (Stroud, Cornwall, South coast towns like Hastings, the whole of Merseyside) swung massively towards Labour.

Anyway, I would really recommend Gully Foyle's piece from earlier this year before making the point that Labour have some existential crisis with Working Class voters.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It's really odd looking at the map and seeing no lib Dem mp in Devon or cornwall, how times have changed..

Lib Dems were close in St Ives, but that's just one of 6 Cornwall seats. They weren't close in any of the other five. Nothing really close in Devon either. It's reflective of the huge loss in popular support for the Lib Dems since 2010.

[Antonio the Sixth]

More rumours about Vince Cable getting pushed down the stairs

Good. Cable is awful even by LibDem standards.

[mileslunn]

It's really odd looking at the map and seeing no lib Dem mp in Devon or cornwall, how times have changed..

Lib Dems were close in St Ives, but that's just one of 6 Cornwall seats. They weren't close in any of the other five. Nothing really close in Devon either. It's reflective of the huge loss in popular support for the Lib Dems since 2010.

It seems the Northeastern parts of Cornwall went Tory with over 50% much like Devon and Somerset, but the Southwestern parts you had a lot of tactical voting so in Camborne and Redruth as well as Truro and Falmouth it appears the LibDem collapse went mostly to Labour whereas in St. Ives the progressive vote stuck mostly with the LibDems.  Even in places like Eastbourne and Oxford West and Abingdon, it was probably more tactical voting than genuine Liberal Democrat support that tipped those to the LibDems.  However in North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale, I suspect if Norman Lamb and Tim Farron were not the candidates, the Tories would have won both handidly, likely topping the 50% mark.  In the North Cheadle and Hazel Grove are ones where LibDems could win if there is enough tactical voting but that is about it and you have the odd southern one like Cheltenham.  That being said most rural constituencies they won between 1997 - 2010 are now solidly Tory and unlikely to flip back.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol, what is she going to do when she runs out of catchy, vacuous slogans

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Unlike Hoey, Field could probably stand and get re-elected as an independent in his seat.

[Blair]

Seeing as NW Leicestershire sounds exactly like a Tory Association with about 4 right wing 90 year olds in charge, this really doesn’t mean much.

[Hnv1]

Why are the West Midlands so staunchly leave? They lost the industry before the EU and most immigrants are from colonies not the eastern bloc.

True the area is a relative dump (I’ve been to west Brom and Wolverhampton for football and it was ramshackle with the stale smell of piss), but nothing new about it and still better than Liverpool.

[Intell]

The only reason you didn't have more in the Socialist Campaign Group and in the Labor Left support Brexit would be because Corbyn is leader.