State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 16, 2024, 06:00:36 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2 (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2  (Read 170384 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« on: April 04, 2018, 10:33:18 AM »
Republicans are DOA in the next California runoffs.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2018, 07:37:12 PM »
Iowa closes at 10:00 Est if this follows the same rules as usual for the state.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2018, 11:31:23 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 11, 2018, 06:09:14 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 10, 2018, 10:49:17 PM
Obama lost this district by 5 against McCain, while winning the state overall by 9 points. Its a very Republican district.

And Obama's 2008 performance in Iowa is pretty much the high watermark for Dems.

Iowa voted for Dukakis 1988, and Clinton 1996 by double digits.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2018, 08:47:39 PM »
I still think that the Reform and Independence Party need to be shoved off the register with a scalp.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2018, 08:52:53 PM »
Good to see that the WFP contributed more votes than the WEP.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2018, 06:57:59 PM »
Carlos Curbelo is going to lose!
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2018, 04:02:41 PM »
Do it please.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2018, 12:15:42 PM »
Simcha Felder should go to jail.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2018, 02:56:22 PM »
Klobuchar coattails please flip this seat.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2018, 08:53:34 PM »
Why is no one posting live information on the MO race. Polls closed almost 2 hours ago.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2018, 07:48:03 PM »
I assume people of color in this case means anyone who is not a non-Hispanic White?

Does at least 2 in every legislative District mean that there will be contested primaries everywhere?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2018, 08:04:19 PM »
A narrow Arthur win is a disappointing Arthur win. Unless Arthur wins by double digits, I will be unsatisfied.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2018, 08:23:45 PM »
Question is if Corlew will do ever worse than Akin 2012.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2018, 08:27:32 PM »
Arthur needs like 20% of remaining votes to win.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2018, 08:33:39 PM »
Arthur needs 1% of remaining vote to win.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2018, 08:37:16 PM »
Even if all the remaining votes went to Corlew, Arthur still wins.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2018, 08:40:59 PM »
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2018, 08:41:36 PM »
Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2018, 08:42:35 PM »
By the way, in polls of this District, McCaskill was leading by more than Arthur was when both races were polled.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #19 on: June 05, 2018, 08:49:59 PM »
All votes are in; and Corlew has done even worse than Akin 2012.

Hawley is done.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2018, 08:50:40 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on June 05, 2018, 08:49:18 PM
Final result:

Lauren Arthur (D) 14,674 (59.61%)
Kevin Corlew (R) 9,917 (40.28%)

Keep in mind the one poll of this race had Arthur up 47-41, and it ended up being 59-40.
They also polled the Senate Race within the District, and had McCaskill up by even more than they had Arthur up.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2018, 09:01:05 PM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on June 05, 2018, 08:58:28 PM
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 05, 2018, 08:41:36 PM
Corlew is on track to underperform Akins 2012 performance.

No way. McCaskill won Clay County as a whole by 19 points, and SD-17 is slightly bluer than the county as a whole

...

I thought McCaskill got 57% of the vote in this SD, and Arthur has even more than that now.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2018, 09:05:16 PM »
Turns out, PNM was right.

McCaskill won the SD by 22 in 2012; 57 to 35.

I only remembered the McCaskill percent, and I forgot how well 3rd parties did in that election.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2018, 09:39:00 PM »
Wait, so this was a Jungle primary (like in Louisiana) and not a Jungle election (like in Hawaii)? Back during the recent Congressional Special Election, I asked if Texas special elections were done in a Jungle election format and someone replied "Yes" and that was the only response.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,745


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2018, 07:34:14 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on September 18, 2018, 07:32:02 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate Dwarven Dragon on September 18, 2018, 07:30:31 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on September 18, 2018, 07:27:55 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on September 18, 2018, 07:26:44 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate Dwarven Dragon on September 18, 2018, 07:25:35 PM
Quote from: maineiac4434🌲🌹 on September 18, 2018, 07:24:33 PM
Gallego up by THREE with eight precincts reporting.

No, that's the early vote only. Look at the rightmost columns:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Senator, District 19               
Peter P. (Pete) Flores   REP   9,893   49.99%   10,109   50.53%
Pete Gallego   DEM   9,896   50.00%   9,896   49.46%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      19,789      20,005   
Precincts Reported      8   of   339 Precincts      2.36%

Wow. Republicans are going to flip a Clinton +11 SD in Texas. Blue wave?

Lmao @ using one special election to say "BLUE WAVE DEAD"

Also we're jumping to conclusions with literally two percent of the vote in. Star Analysis Limo, really.

A prominent GOP strategist has called the race for Flores. It's over, blue wave believers.

There was a prominent GOP strategist who called the Alabama Senate Special Election for Roy Moore last year too.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.