Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night
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Author Topic: Prediction: The 3 most shocking states on election night  (Read 10599 times)
Senator Spark
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« Reply #50 on: May 15, 2018, 11:41:33 PM »
Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #51 on: May 16, 2018, 02:57:25 PM »
Quote from: Chairface Chippendale on May 15, 2018, 03:31:54 PM
I must be the only one that was shocked at Trump winning NC by 4 points. I knew he could win of course but I thought it would be an Obama 2008 margin, or a Romney 2012 at most.

I too was surprised by his NC margin, given that he got destroyed in Charlotte and the Research Triangle. No idea where all those votes came from.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #52 on: May 16, 2018, 02:57:48 PM »

To be fair, Arizona and Georgia were too close for comfort.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #53 on: May 16, 2018, 08:10:01 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on May 16, 2018, 02:57:48 PM

To be fair, Arizona and Georgia were too close for comfort.

It was tha Alaska part that got me... lol. Hard to believe people were actually thinking that. That was way more far fetched even than saying New Mexico would go for Trump.
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YE
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« Reply #54 on: May 16, 2018, 08:12:06 PM »
Quote from: Yellowhammer on May 16, 2018, 08:10:01 PM
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on May 16, 2018, 02:57:48 PM

To be fair, Arizona and Georgia were too close for comfort.

It was tha Alaska part that got me... lol. Hard to believe people were actually thinking that. That was way more far fetched even than saying New Mexico would go for Trump.

Polls had Alaska as close and it's trended Democrat the last several cycles.
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cvparty
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« Reply #55 on: May 16, 2018, 10:12:31 PM »
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on May 16, 2018, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: Chairface Chippendale on May 15, 2018, 03:31:54 PM
I must be the only one that was shocked at Trump winning NC by 4 points. I knew he could win of course but I thought it would be an Obama 2008 margin, or a Romney 2012 at most.

I too was surprised by his NC margin, given that he got destroyed in Charlotte and the Research Triangle. No idea where all those votes came from.
People majorly underestimate the population outside Raleigh and Charlotte / overestimate the cities' population. There's actually a very substantial rural and suburban Republican population...Charlotte lacks Democratic suburbs like Virginia
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #56 on: May 16, 2018, 11:31:30 PM »
Quote from: cvparty on May 16, 2018, 10:12:31 PM
Quote from: Arbitrage1980 on May 16, 2018, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: Chairface Chippendale on May 15, 2018, 03:31:54 PM
I must be the only one that was shocked at Trump winning NC by 4 points. I knew he could win of course but I thought it would be an Obama 2008 margin, or a Romney 2012 at most.

I too was surprised by his NC margin, given that he got destroyed in Charlotte and the Research Triangle. No idea where all those votes came from.
People majorly underestimate the population outside Raleigh and Charlotte / overestimate the cities' population. There's actually a very substantial rural and suburban Republican population...Charlotte lacks Democratic suburbs like Virginia

Good point. The 7 biggest counties in NC accounted for 39% of the total votes in the state. In those counties, Hillary beat Trump by roughly 400K votes. In the remaining counties, Trump beat Hillary by 570K votes, resulting in him winning the state by 170K votes.

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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #57 on: May 17, 2018, 03:32:07 PM »

Almost there with Arizona to be fair.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #58 on: June 13, 2018, 10:33:08 PM »
man atlas is complete and utter garbage when it comes to predictions
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #59 on: June 16, 2018, 04:54:10 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeConservative on July 09, 2017, 09:17:28 AM
This was right after those tapes, right?  That's the only way we could have all thought it was going to be a Hillary landslide.

It would have been a landslide if it were anyone else besides Hillary.
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Sadader
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« Reply #60 on: June 17, 2018, 12:43:16 PM »
Quote from: North Fulton Democrat on June 16, 2018, 04:54:10 PM
Quote from: ExtremeConservative on July 09, 2017, 09:17:28 AM
This was right after those tapes, right?  That's the only way we could have all thought it was going to be a Hillary landslide.

It would have been a landslide if it were anyone else besides Hillary.

keep telling yourself that bud
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #61 on: June 17, 2018, 12:56:29 PM »
Quote from: Confused Democrat on October 10, 2016, 02:21:44 PM
Alaska, Arizona, Georgia.

All go to Clinton.

I would say you certainly were confused when you said this.
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Xing
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« Reply #62 on: June 17, 2018, 02:19:20 PM »
Keep in mind that this was during Pussygate, when polls showed Trump tanking, possibly even in danger of losing Alaska and Utah, and there was talk of Republicans trying to remove him from the ticket. The point is that making accurate predictions is not easy, and often requires luck more than anything else, since voters are often very unpredictable. My guesses in the special elections since 2016 have been much more accurate than my 2016 predictions, which I actually put a lot of effort into.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #63 on: July 01, 2018, 03:04:23 PM »
Quote from: North Fulton Democrat on June 16, 2018, 04:54:10 PM
Quote from: ExtremeConservative on July 09, 2017, 09:17:28 AM
This was right after those tapes, right?  That's the only way we could have all thought it was going to be a Hillary landslide.

It would have been a landslide if it were anyone else besides Hillary.

You are probably correct!
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #64 on: August 27, 2018, 06:17:34 PM »
Quote from: Grab some popcorn on October 10, 2016, 06:34:49 PM
Whatever three states go for Gary "Aleppo" Johnson?

But seriously:

1. AZ to left of IA
2. GA to the left of IA
3. TX to the left of MO


I will now accept my accolades.
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