Migrating population is the key to the trend analysis

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In the south there are voters who vote Rep while their parents have voted Dem. It is not easy to find a voter who switched parties, though every one of us knows someone who did it

It is safe to assert that the main reason for the big changes in states like NH, NJ, CT, SD, MT, WY and TX is the emigration/immigration process that took place during the last 20 years.

Its not easy to find a voter who switched? About ever other Republican I know down south here was a democrat when they turned 18. Old timers however are mostly hopeless because they are stuck on FDR.

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I think the fact that the Republicans now control nearly every state office and te state legislature for about the first time ever is a pretty good sign that they have trended Republican.  The home state effect explains the Presidential race issues.

The Republicans completely control all levels of government (except the SC) in Florida. The Democrats here are basically a ineffective third party when it comes to state politics.

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I think the fact that the Republicans now control nearly every state office and te state legislature for about the first time ever is a pretty good sign that they have trended Republican.  The home state effect explains the Presidential race issues.

I would advise you to prepare yourself for a "Florida Disappointment".
The Republicans completely control all levels of government (except the SC) in Florida. The Democrats here are basically a ineffective third party when it comes to state politics.

Hardly. The Democrats haven't even started a GOTV effort here yet. I have looked and looked and they have no campaign hq in the area yet either. While the Bush reelection team has been swarming the streets every week since March. I get two phone calls a week and the weekend before last they had over 15k people groundpounding throughout florida getting new voters. GOP members are standing out in front of Post offices registering new voters as well. I have yet to see one sign, sticker, or TShirt that says "John Kerry for President". Although I have seen shirts that say "John Effin Kerry, for Effin President? No effin Way!!!" and I saw a jogger running around our local lake with a sign on the back of his shirt (his wife had a sign to) the sign said "F**k Kerry!".

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I would advise you to prepare yourself for a "Florida Disappointment".

Yeah! And Jeb was going to be swept out of office back in 2002?

The Jeb Bush defeat of 2002




Bush     56.01%
McBride 43.16%

Remember, the North of the state can still outvote the south.

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Have you noticed that the governors of MA, CT, NY, and MD  are all REPs.
In MA Bush got 32%. In NYC - 15% despite the GOP mayor.

I disagree. A lot of the vote in 2002 was momentum to make sure Jeb stayed in office. North Florida can still outvote the south.

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Americans vote differently in state elections then in presidential ones

Ok, we'll see. I can see old time southerners buying the words of a New England yankee.

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I remember in early 2002 all these democrats kept getting on tv saying. "We will sweep Jeb out!" "This is revenge for 2000." Well again as I said, the northern part of the state simply outvoted Miami.

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People do vote differently in state and federal elections.  Case in point, Alabama State Legislature is controlled by the Democrats although Bush won the state by double digits.

I believe Florida is a exception to this rule.

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Have you noticed that the governors of MA, CT, NY, and MD  are all REPs.
In MA Bush got 32%. In NYC - 15% despite the GOP mayor.

There are two things that make Florida different.

1) In Florida,, unlike those other states, the governor in question is not a moderate Yankee but a true bona-fide conservative.

2) In Florida, unlike those other states, the Governor is the President's brother.

Yeah, I think 2002 Bush-McBride gives us a rough idea of how Florida voters feel about the President.

3) Northern Florida/Central Florida still has the power to outvote Miami/Dade. In Miami/Dade Bushs' numbers have actually gone up from 39% in 1998 to 43% in 2002. Definately good news. Jeb had strong Jewish support last time around.

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Nelson and Graham are still hanging around.

Soon to be gone.