Post Random Maps Here 2.0.

[WestVegeta]

An Alternate 2016

Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV)/Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN): 272 EVs

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): 266 Evs

2016 saw the most competitive primary season in recent memory as officials on both sides made their case to be President Obama's successor. On the Republican side, the field started out at a whopping 16 candidates. However, it was not long until the contest thinned down to Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Brian Sandoval. After the first few debates, Kasich and Bush dropped out, having lost the "sensible, moderate governor" niche to the much more youthful and charismatic Sandoval. Another point in the Nevadan governor's favor was the "Robot Rubio" debate gaffe, in which Marco Rubio sputtered and repeated the same phrase over and over. After Rubio's poor performance days before the New Hampshire primary, it became clear that his spot as the "young, charismatic Latino", already contested by Sandoval, had slipped away. The senator from Florida followed Bush and Kasich in dropping out, though unlike the other two, he declined to endorse Sandoval, privately considering him to be too moderate.

Trump's bombastic personality surprisingly made him the frontrunner early on, but after a disappointing second place showing behind Sandoval in New Hampshire (and being a close third to Cruz), The Donald dropped out, citing that his heart "just wasn't in it anymore". The sore loser threw his weight behind Christie, who agreed to take up his mantle as the "telling it like it is" candidate.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary was getting increasingly heated. What was once thought as former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's race to lose was complicated by the late entrance of Vice President Biden. While Clinton and Biden traded jabs and were at each others' throats, pulling from the same pool of voters, the progressive faction found its champion in Bernie Sanders. He wasn't gaffe-prone and ineffectual in office like Biden, and he didn't have the baggage of Hillary. His "democratic socialist" agenda appealed to disenfranchised Rust Belt ancestral democrats and college-age millenials alike, and he began to eke out a lead as neither Clinton nor Biden would drop out.


As the Republican primaries continued, it became a battle between four different self-proclaimed "Washington outsiders": Paul, Cruz, Christie, and Sandoval. Out of those four, Christie became the first to bow out, as despite he and Sandoval having similar backgrounds, the Nevadan was more popular based on charisma alone. Thus, the Republican primary became a battle between the libertarian, (tea party) conservative, and moderate wings of the party. The three battled over every delegate they could get their hands on. As it became more clear that Sanders would be the Democratic nominee, Rubio knew deep down that a moderate would stand the best chance of wresting the presidency from the democrats, as Bernie's progressivism/populism hybrid picked up steam. He decided to endorse Governor Sandoval, and a series of conservative endorsements followed for the Nevadan. A string of solid victories in April, May, and June propelled Sandoval, a man perviously labelled by party insiders as to moderate to amount to anything nationally, to the nomination.

As the convention drew near, polls showed that Sandoval's fiscal conservatism and social centrism appealed to Americans across the board, but he was neck and neck with the Senator from Vermont.

To gain conservative support, Sandoval announced that Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee would serve as his running mate. Corker brought legislative and foreign policy experience to the ticket, a choice which was lauded. Sanders made a similar move to gain the affection of establishment Democrats by choosing Cory Booker of New Jersey, an obvious contrast to the old, white Sanders.

The race was nearly a dead heat for almost all of the time leading up to the general election. In the debates, Sandoval's charisma and level-headedness was a perfect foil to the fiery passion of Sanders.

On November 8th, the closest election since 2000 took place. Sanders unexpectedly increased white working class turnout for the Democrats, netting him Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, Sandoval increased Latino and Asian turnout for the Republicans, a feat attributed to his centrism, Mexican heritage, and his pro-free trade (ardent support of NAFTA, but he did emphasize that he planned on renegotiating the TPP) and (relatively) immigrant-friendly policy proposals. As a result, the race in states such as California and Massachusetts were surprisingly close, though they did go to Sanders.

Nevada turned out to be the state to win, though through increased Latino turnout and the favorite son effect, Governor Sandoval won the state, and thus the presidency.

On January 20th, 2017, Brian Sandoval was sworn in as the forty-fifth President of the United States, and the first Hispanic individual to hold that office. In his inaugural address, the newly-minted President laid out a centrist-leaning agenda, promising to stand firm against entitlement cuts, while ushering in a new era of prosperity via pro-growth policies and a more streamlined immigration process (which riled up the paleocon portion of his party). Sandoval ushered in a new, more moderate and internationalist era of the GOP, and saw a broadening of the GOP base to include Hispanics and Asians, whom he (and the GOP) would win in later elections.

Should I make this into a fully-fledged TL?

[Calthrina950]

An Alternate 2016

Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV)/Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN): 272 EVs

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT)/Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): 266 Evs

2016 saw the most competitive primary season in recent memory as officials on both sides made their case to be President Obama's successor. On the Republican side, the field started out at a whopping 16 candidates. However, it was not long until the contest thinned down to Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Brian Sandoval. After the first few debates, Kasich and Bush dropped out, having lost the "sensible, moderate governor" niche to the much more youthful and charismatic Sandoval. Another point in the Nevadan governor's favor was the "Robot Rubio" debate gaffe, in which Marco Rubio sputtered and repeated the same phrase over and over. After Rubio's poor performance days before the New Hampshire primary, it became clear that his spot as the "young, charismatic Latino", already contested by Sandoval, had slipped away. The senator from Florida followed Bush and Kasich in dropping out, though unlike the other two, he declined to endorse Sandoval, privately considering him to be too moderate.

Trump's bombastic personality surprisingly made him the frontrunner early on, but after a disappointing second place showing behind Sandoval in New Hampshire (and being a close third to Cruz), The Donald dropped out, citing that his heart "just wasn't in it anymore". The sore loser threw his weight behind Christie, who agreed to take up his mantle as the "telling it like it is" candidate.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary was getting increasingly heated. What was once thought as former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's race to lose was complicated by the late entrance of Vice President Biden. While Clinton and Biden traded jabs and were at each others' throats, pulling from the same pool of voters, the progressive faction found its champion in Bernie Sanders. He wasn't gaffe-prone and ineffectual in office like Biden, and he didn't have the baggage of Hillary. His "democratic socialist" agenda appealed to disenfranchised Rust Belt ancestral democrats and college-age millenials alike, and he began to eke out a lead as neither Clinton nor Biden would drop out.


As the Republican primaries continued, it became a battle between four different self-proclaimed "Washington outsiders": Paul, Cruz, Christie, and Sandoval. Out of those four, Christie became the first to bow out, as despite he and Sandoval having similar backgrounds, the Nevadan was more popular based on charisma alone. Thus, the Republican primary became a battle between the libertarian, (tea party) conservative, and moderate wings of the party. The three battled over every delegate they could get their hands on. As it became more clear that Sanders would be the Democratic nominee, Rubio knew deep down that a moderate would stand the best chance of wresting the presidency from the democrats, as Bernie's progressivism/populism hybrid picked up steam. He decided to endorse Governor Sandoval, and a series of conservative endorsements followed for the Nevadan. A string of solid victories in April, May, and June propelled Sandoval, a man perviously labelled by party insiders as to moderate to amount to anything nationally, to the nomination.

As the convention drew near, polls showed that Sandoval's fiscal conservatism and social centrism appealed to Americans across the board, but he was neck and neck with the Senator from Vermont.

To gain conservative support, Sandoval announced that Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee would serve as his running mate. Corker brought legislative and foreign policy experience to the ticket, a choice which was lauded. Sanders made a similar move to gain the affection of establishment Democrats by choosing Cory Booker of New Jersey, an obvious contrast to the old, white Sanders.

The race was nearly a dead heat for almost all of the time leading up to the general election. In the debates, Sandoval's charisma and level-headedness was a perfect foil to the fiery passion of Sanders.

On November 8th, the closest election since 2000 took place. Sanders unexpectedly increased white working class turnout for the Democrats, netting him Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, Sandoval increased Latino and Asian turnout for the Republicans, a feat attributed to his centrism, Mexican heritage, and his pro-free trade (ardent support of NAFTA, but he did emphasize that he planned on renegotiating the TPP) and (relatively) immigrant-friendly policy proposals. As a result, the race in states such as California and Massachusetts were surprisingly close, though they did go to Sanders.

Nevada turned out to be the state to win, though through increased Latino turnout and the favorite son effect, Governor Sandoval won the state, and thus the presidency.

On January 20th, 2017, Brian Sandoval was sworn in as the forty-fifth President of the United States, and the first Hispanic individual to hold that office. In his inaugural address, the newly-minted President laid out a centrist-leaning agenda, promising to stand firm against entitlement cuts, while ushering in a new era of prosperity via pro-growth policies and a more streamlined immigration process (which riled up the paleocon portion of his party). Sandoval ushered in a new, more moderate and internationalist era of the GOP, and saw a broadening of the GOP base to include Hispanics and Asians, whom he (and the GOP) would win in later elections.

Should I make this into a fully-fledged TL?

This is very well-written, and I think that it would make for a good timeline. It would have been nice if this had been the actual outcome of the 2016 election...

[Dr. MB]

1996 without Clinton, Dole, or Perot

Harry Browne/Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) – 296
Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke (Green) – 219
Howard Phillips/Albion Knight (Taxpayers) – 23

[Burke Bro]

My dream tickets!

2020 General Election

Bernie Sanders/Russ Feingold: 383
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 155

or..

2020 General Election

Tulsi Gabbard/Dennis Kucinich: 383
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 155

[bagelman]

Trump vs. Clinton '92 adjusted for 2016 vote totals. However, because Clinton won less of the vote share than Trump because of the sorta 3 way contest, Trump wins. 2004 map because average of 1992 and 2016 is '04.

A tie flips all the aqua states other than OH and LA. Clinton needs at least one of these states of win. Probably also flips DE and WV if he wins.

[bagelman]

This is pretty much what happen when we adjust for Clinton '96 instead of '92

Sometimes you just have those depressing moments when you stare at your screen and wonder why you woke up that morning, other than to go to work.

swing:

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

This is pretty much what happen when we adjust for Clinton '96 instead of '92

Sometimes you just have those depressing moments when you stare at your screen and wonder why you woke up that morning, other than to go to work.

swing:

I'm really confused. What do you mean by that?

[bagelman]

Margin of victory map for Bush '88 vs. Clinton '92.

Clinton's best victory margin is 9% in RI. All <1% MOVs set to tossup.

[bagelman]

Dukakis '88 defeats Bush '92.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Dukakis '88 defeats Bush '92.

This is in terms of raw vote totals right?

[bagelman]

1912 with Gary Johnson 2016 added as a candidate, managing 2nd in both PV and EV.

[bagelman]

Dukakis '88 defeats Bush '92.

This is in terms of raw vote totals right?

Yep

[West_Midlander]

[West_Midlander]

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The Second Coming of Christ happens sometime in 2019, and he wins the Democratic nomination for President?

[SingingAnalyst]

Flip each state where margin < 1.00%

Part I -- 1960-1984 (none in 1968, 1972, or 1988)

1960:

Kennedy/Johnson 49.7% / 278 EV
Nixon/Lodge 49.6% / 251 EV

1964:

Johnson/Humphrey 61.1% / 491 EV
Goldwater/Miller 38.5% / 47 EV

1976:

Carter/Mondale 50.1% / 282 EV
Ford/Dole 48.0% / 256 EV

1980:

Reagan/Bush 50.7% / 459 EV
Carter/Mondale 41.0% / 79 EV

1984:

Reagan/Bush 58.8% / 535 EV
Mondale/Ferraro 40.6% / 3 EV

[SingingAnalyst]

Flip every state with margin < 1.00% - Part 2 (1992 - 2016)

1992:

Clinton/Gore 43.0% / 371 EV
Bush/Quayle 37.4% / 167 EV
Perot/Stockdale 18.9% / 0 EV

1996:

Clinton/Gore 49.25% / 371 EV
Dole/Kemp 40.73% / 167 EV

2000:

Bush/Cheney 47.9% / 276 EV
Gore/Lieberman 48.4% / 262 EV

2004:

Bush/Cheney 50.6% / 284 EV
Kerry/Edwards 48.1% / 254 EV

2008:

Obama/Biden 52.9% / 367 EV
McCain/Palin 45.7% / 171 EV

2012:

Obama/Biden 51.3% / 303 EV
Romney/Ryan 47.2% / 235 EV

2016:

Clinton/Kaine 48.0% / 274 EV
Trump/Pence 45.9% / 264 EV

[SingingAnalyst]

If every state with a margin of <1.00%, beginning with 1960, were flipped...

The elections of 1968, 1972, and 1988, state by state, would have turned out exactly the same. In every election since 1988, at least one state would have flipped.

Kennedy would have won in 1960 with just 19 states (even assuming six AL electors went "south", so to speak, as IRL). Nixon would have carried 30 states, the most ever for an election loser.

MO would have been the only Stevenson '56 - Nixon '60 state. (IRL there were none).

1960 would have been the first, last, and only time Hawaii voted for a losing Republican.

1964 would have been the first and only time every single EV cast for the GOP ticket came from the Deep South.

Oregon would have joined most Southern states, but virtually no other states, as a Carter '76 - Bush '00 state.

The 1980 election would have been a bit closer, but still pretty lopsided for an election with <10 points differential in the PV.

Reagan in 1984 would have been the first and only candidate to carry 50 states.

VA in 1992 would have been R surrounded by D states, quite different from today.

The EV breakdown in 1996 would have been exactly what it was in 1992.

In 2000 FL would have voted for a losing Dem for the first time since 1924. Also, FL would be the only Bush '92 - Gore '00 state (there were none IRL).

In 2012 a contiguous, rather wide, belt of states from ID to FL would still not have been enough to win.

2016 would have been the first time since 1976 that-- wait for it-- a losing GOP candidate won an EV from the Northeast.

Finally, only in 2016 would the final result have changed.

[bagelman]

Wilson 266 EV

All Socialist and Communist aligned tickets from 1888-1956: 252 EV

[bagelman]

Adlai Stevenson 1952 vs. Goldwater

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Reagan wins by 6% less than in our time line.

Reagan - 498
Mondale - 40

[Dr. MB]

1996 if every Perot vote went to Dole

Bob Dole/Jack Kemp 288
Bill Clinton/Al Gore 250

The closest state is Wisconsin, which is Clinton 48.81% (1,071,971) and Dole 48.83% (1,072,368).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

1996 if every Perot vote went to Dole

Bob Dole/Jack Kemp 288
Bill Clinton/Al Gore 250

The closest state is Wisconsin, which is Clinton 48.81% (1,071,971) and Dole 48.83% (1,072,368).

Also, Clinton still wins the popular vote in this.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Reagan loses by 7.88%.

Reagan - 122
Mondale - 416

[SingingAnalyst]

Reagan loses by 7.88%.

Reagan - 122
Mondale - 416

What happened? Did millions of 18-29 year old white men (Reagan's strongest demographic IRL) decide they preferred the preachy, schoolmarmish, shrill Mondale over the affable Reagan? Did they decide "Russians" by Sting was their favorite song, rather than "Ghostbusters"?