The absentee/early vote thread

[psychprofessor]

sounds like..other than solid dem NV...nobody can really see clear winner in NC/FL.

Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn – Verified account ‏@Nate_Cohn

Clinton leads by 22 points among nearly 1 million N.C. early voters, according to our estimates

[ApatheticAustrian]

at this point/in general/on november 7th/only in-person-voting?

[Adam Griffin]

As of yesterday, Georgia crossed the one million mark in early votes/ballot requests (1,049,670). As a share of registered voters, 20.02% have voted or requested ballots thus far.

Here are two maps: one showing the percentage of early voters to have voted/requested thus far, and the other showing that number as above/below the statewide percentage. You can click on each county for more information.

County EV (10/26) Turnout As Share of RV (Click on the "map of geometry" tab at the top, since for whatever reason, I can't get this map to directly link this morning)

County EV (10/26) Turnout As Share of RV: Above/Below State Turnout

[HillOfANight]

Cool! Is that requests though? (check Ballot Status = A)
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

It says Michael has 1.04M requests, and 936K voted.

[Adam Griffin]

Cool! Is that requests though? (check Ballot Status = A)
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

It says Michael has 1.04M requests, and 936K voted.

It's all entries by county from the absentee spreadsheet available via SoS, so I guess it does include requested-but-not-returned ballots. I didn't think to check for that; I just counted the number of rows in each spreadsheet...all 159 of them, unfortunately, since SoS is no longer putting all of them into one file.

[HillOfANight]

http://webpierat.com/2011/05/23/merging-csv-files-using-the-command-line/

It takes about 5 minutes to stitch them together.

1. Copy the address of the extracted zip file
2. Go to CMD and type CD and paste the copied address
3. Type "copy *.csv combine.csv
4. In Excel, delete redundant headers and analyze away

Tableau Public can easily do this too, in case Excel runs into issues once rows are over 1 million (maybe PowerPivot can workaround it).

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

278,701 Floridians voted early, and Democrats won the day by about 4,000.  Total in person was about 15,000 less than Tuesday.

166,962 Floridians returned a VBM ballots, and GOP on them by about 10,000.

So out of about 2.5 million votes, the GOP has a 10,000 vote lead, which plays out to about 0.47%

I get asked often how this compares to 2012.  It really doesn’t in an apple to apples form. Early voting in 2012 started on this coming Saturday, so we were only looking at VBM in 2012 on this day. The GOP had a pretty significant lead, and we did not overtake them in total votes until Sunday.

In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP.

Hillsborough -

is the only county that voted for Bush twice and Obama twice. It has also correctly picked 19 of the last 20 Presidents.

Yesterday, Democrats carried the day by about 5 points, thanks to a 10-point advantage in VBM ballots.  Democrats maintain a 7-point (44-37) edge in total ballots cast, which is in line with our registration edge.

I-4

Orange:  46-32 D for the day.  49-31 D overall
Osceola: 48-28 D for the day.  49-29 D overall
Volusia:   42-36 R for the day. 42-38 R overall

Palm Beach continues to look good (though I’d like higher turnout):  48-30 for day, 51-30 overall (+28K).  (Obama won by 17 points)

Broward:  57-23 D for the day, and 58-24 D overall (+66K)

Dade:  45-31 D for the day, and 45-33 D overall (+33K)

Duval, even though GOP had a good day in VBM returns, Democrats once again won the in person early vote.  This is a county that Obama was able to significantly reduce the huge Bush margins of 2000 and 2004 (61K votes in 2004!)

Duval:  44-43 R for the day, 44-41 R overall (+1,000)

[Gass3268]

So basically we will have a better understanding of where things stand in Florida on Monday, but things look good in the swing counties.

[Confused Democrat]

So basically we will have a better understanding of where things stand in Florida on Monday, but things look good in the swing counties.

Pretty much, yeah.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"The latest statewide numbers, missing a few rural counties, show a 26,500 lead for the Dems in raw votes. That's 45 percent to 36 percent, the same percentage lead and 3,500 raw votes more than they had at this point in 2012 and about 3 points above the actual registration difference."

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  6m6 minutes ago
Colorado early vote 10/27 update:
Good news for Reps: reg Dem +5.1 today, was +6.1 y'day
Bad news: 3,581 more Dem returns, lead now +28,832

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"The latest statewide numbers, missing a few rural counties, show a 26,500 lead for the Dems in raw votes. That's 45 percent to 36 percent, the same percentage lead and 3,500 raw votes more than they had at this point in 2012 and about 3 points above the actual registration difference."

Am I the only one who is a bit disappointed that it's only on par with 2012? If Latinos are really turning out in record numbers, the margin should be wider than that, no?

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"The latest statewide numbers, missing a few rural counties, show a 26,500 lead for the Dems in raw votes. That's 45 percent to 36 percent, the same percentage lead and 3,500 raw votes more than they had at this point in 2012 and about 3 points above the actual registration difference."

Am I the only one who is a bit disappointed that it's only on par with 2012? If Latinos are really turning out in record numbers, the margin should be wider than that, no?

Intuitively, yes.

But look at the polling average.

HuffPo final polls average in 2012

Obama 50.1
Romney 46.5

HuffPo polls average as of 10/26/16

Clinton 44.5
Trump 42.1

So the fact that polls in NV are a little tighter in 2016 but Hillary is keeping her pace should tell you she is overachieving so far, if anything.

[Likely Voter]

538 throws cold water on looking too closely at early vote

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

[Doimper]

538 throws cold water on looking too closely at early vote

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

It seems to me if you take out the Dixiecrat states, you do get a pretty strong positive correlation between the early vote and final vote share.

[The Other Castro]

A new record of over 18.7 million Californians have registered to vote.

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2016/10/25/18-7-million-california-voter-registration-sets-record/

[HillOfANight]

Re: 538, not saying anything we don't already know. Compare vs previous years early voting not the final vote. https://twitter.com/electproject/status/791671202368544768

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Re: 538, not saying anything we don't already know. Compare vs previous years early voting not the final vote. https://twitter.com/electproject/status/791671202368544768

The key points of 538 article were according to me:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It means also that you can not really compare it to 2012, i.e. 2016 EV is not representative of 2012.

And

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that simple. Polls are better.

Uppshot model based on EV and polls is probably an exception and worth to take attention on.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Nevada early vote (mail and in-person) update: 313K voted (for in-person, +13.1% from 2012). Reg Dems +15.9 points over Reps

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Nevada already at 44.5% of their 2012 total early vote. Reps are going to have to turn things around soon for Trump to have a chance

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  14m14 minutes ago
CORRECTION! Dems +8.9 points over Reps (unfortunately shifted the mail ballot columns)

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  48s48 seconds ago
Today's "low propensity" FL voter update.   GOP has turned out more "certain" voters, which is expected, due to historic VBM advantage 1/2

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  31s31 seconds ago
But HRC continues to turn out larger share and number of new and low propensity voters. 27% of Dems, 22% of Rs, roughly 40K more voters 2/2

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/791454902748938240

"Dear GOP pundits bragging about Trump "strength" in IA AV:
- Obama won AV by 20% in IA in '12
- Current D AV share is only .8% behind '12"

@tommillard Not necessarily, but there is no sign of an intensity gap in the AV. So we can assess the polls (which are mixed). I'd bet HRC+3"


Wow, Tom Bonier thinks Hillary will win, let alone possibly by +3 in IA?

I'd say +3 is too optimistic for IA but he has the model so....

[PresidentTRUMP]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

[Ebsy]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

These numbers have nothing to do with the early vote... ?

[Mehmentum]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

That's talking about turnout in the primaries, not the early vote, so its not really relevant to the thread.

There's no correlation between primary turnout and presidential election performance.  Each year, the primary with the higher turnout ends up being the more competitive one.

[Speed of Sound]

My sources are telling me that amongst those who bought their Halloween masks early, Trump is trailing hard; some wonder if this has to do with less Halloween shops being open this year in rural white communities, though. Stay tuned to Bill Mitchell for the hottest news from the spooooky battleground.