Why did Gore do so well in the Lower Northeast (RI, CT, NY, NJ)?
Dead Parrot:
For all the talk of how 2000 was a realigning election that created our modern electoral map, one part of the country where that clearly wasn't the case was the four states named above. In all of them, Al Gore registered the strongest Democratic performance compared to the nationwide PV in modern times. In places like the Naugatuck Valley, Long Island, and the Jersey Shore, Gore did better than any subsequent Democratic presidential candidate to date, including Obama. This is all the more remarkable given that Gore's campaign is widely remembered as rather dull and uninspiring and was the second weakest Dem performance in the popular vote since 1992. Why was this? Did Lieberman give the campaign a boost in these states? Did 9/11 cause a permanent rightward shift in these states that prevented Obama and Biden from matching Gore's (relative) performance?
Obama-Biden Democrat:
Gun control and environmentalism. It's the same reason why Gore lost TN, AR, MO and WV. In the 90s gun control and environmentalism became hot button issues and the Mid Atlantic backed both. The NYC/NJ/CT suburbs back gun control.
The Clinton/Gore administration also signed the environmental agreement, the Kyoto Protocol which also was popular in the region.
Dead Parrot:
Quote from: Teflon Joe. on July 05, 2021, 07:45:23 PM
Gun control and environmentalism. It's the same reason why Gore lost TN, AR, MO and WV. In the 90s gun control and environmentalism became hot button issues and the Mid Atlantic backed both. The NYC/NJ/CT suburbs back gun control.
The Clinton/Gore administration also signed the environmental agreement, the Kyoto Protocol which also was popular in the region.
But it's not like Dems have softened on gun control and environmentalism relative to the GOP since 2000, and yet they've lost a lot of ground with WWC voters in these states. (And it didn't start with Trump; many of these towns swung substantially to Bush in 2004 and didn't really swing back to Obama in 2008.) This is why I hypothesize that 9/11 may have had some lasting effect, perhaps by reinforcing the GOP's image as the "macho" party and making issues like gun control lose salience.
If my soul was made of stone:
Lieberman probably helped in this part of the world, especially among Jews, although Gore paid dearly for that pick elsewhere. Although Gore was reticent to tie himself too strongly to Clinton, there was much goodwill from that administration in the region (see the 92-96 swings in these states) that seems to have held over enough for Gore to pull off surprising wins in Bush-Bush-Clinton counties like Monmouth, NJ, and Richmond, NY.
Calthrina950:
Quote from: The Ĉon of Isis on July 06, 2021, 08:19:38 AM
Lieberman probably helped in this part of the world, especially among Jews, although Gore paid dearly for that pick elsewhere. Although Gore was reticent to tie himself too strongly to Clinton, there was much goodwill from that administration in the region (see the 92-96 swings in these states) that seems to have held over enough for Gore to pull off surprising wins in Bush-Bush-Clinton counties like Monmouth, NJ, and Richmond, NY.
Gore is the last Democrat to have won Monmouth County, which has remained loyally Republican ever since. He won Richmond County by 7%, the widest margin of victory for a Democrat there since 1964, aside from Clinton's 10-pt. win in 1996 (helped by Perot). Gore is the last Democrat to have won upstate Montgomery County, New York. He lost Ocean County, New Jersey, by just over 1%, a county where every successive Democrat has gotten blown out. He also had the widest margin of victory for any Democrat since the turn of the millennium in Rhode Island.
Conversely, Gore had the weakest overall performance of any Democrat since the turn of the millennium in the Upper Northeast. He is the only Democrat after B. Clinton to have fallen under 60% in Massachusetts (thanks to Nader), the only Democrat after Clinton to have lost New Hampshire, and "only" won Vermont by 10%, the closest that state has come to voting Republican since Clinton. He did do better in Maine than H. Clinton, but still posted the second-weakest performance there overall. The Upper Northeast swung strongly towards Kerry in 2004 (due to Iraq War opposition and social issues), while the Lower Northeast swung strongly to Bush (due to 9/11).
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