Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[ApatheticAustrian]

a single digit loss for dems would energize the base everywhere, imho.

this race was a non-starter anyway and no one has really cared until a day or two ago.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the EV in fl wasn't so bad for trump.

he got beaten in the last week, as usual, but not even close to obama territory and needed much too long.

[ApatheticAustrian]

pretty sure thompson won't win (kansas is unable to kill even one republican in a really lousy situation) but the general competitiveness is a great sign for dozens and dozens of closer races.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Now 61-37 in Butler (69-24 Trump) with one-quarter of precincts reporting.

butler seems to be the only MAJOR pro-republican place with a lots of votes in the district so this is a essential for Estes.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is it possible for Sedgwick to carry the district for Thompson all by itself?

regarding the numbers, sure, but estes still gets a loooooooooooooooooot of votes there, so unlikely.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Thompson's % keeps dropping.   I think there's too many small counties left.   Estes probably wins this

they are not....those counties are over and counted early.

they are important now but not in an hour or so.

if thompson delivers in the big 3-4 counties and ofc most of all in Sedgwick, he wins.

i still don't think it happens but the bulk of tiny counties isn't the problem here.

[ApatheticAustrian]

those tiny tiny tiny counties are atm over-represented right now by FAAAAAR and much more republican anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Am I missing something or is everyone missing the fact that Sedgewick appears to be largely out and Thompson is romping there? Even given the Democratic League of early voters, I'm not sure why there's so much pessimism among Democrats right now.

it is effing kansas, which doubled down on brownback even while it seemingly hates the guy and holds together anyway.

and EV is a bad indicator as 2016 has shown.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah, i also totally wonder why the DNC is not spending massively in GOP+ 30 or something Kansas races.

[ApatheticAustrian]

at this point, thompson would need a MASSIVE sedgwick win and i am not trusting kansas of all places enough to pull this off.

well, going to be a great showing anyway....congratulations, grassroots, i am impressed and hopeful.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It's gonna come down to the HSS column. This is KS-04 we're talking about here. 2018 might be a D wave.

only if this outrage and this government incompetence is holding up for another 18 months.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this district is sooo republican, single digits would be a disaster.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the DNC atm is not caring about being populist or not but about winable races.

KS is the longest of longest shots.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i can't imagine how any gov could screw a state more than brownback and the party has suffered nearly no loss at all on any level.

[ApatheticAustrian]

to be totally fair, the GOP gets a boost from flying in a star like Cruz, a liberal guest would have been more of a local problem, i guess.

[ApatheticAustrian]

wonderful micro-cosmos-debate.

a district so republican that winning that way seems like losing and a problem for national repbulicans and still so republican, that even a massive double combo like brownback/trump couldn't turn it.

guess everybody can be happy or sad atm.

[ApatheticAustrian]

If KS-4 happened in a vacuum, fine. But on top of CA-34 last week. GA-6 looking close. Trump approval at 40. Generic ballot big Dem lead...
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851979841620631554


Keep in mind, #KS04 is the 74th most GOP district in the U.S. out of 435,
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/851980050274680832

[ApatheticAustrian]

Well,  if that happens then the hype was kinda overblown,

it was not.

the downfall is massive, even if you don't lose. this is important.

[ApatheticAustrian]

only the trolls are gloating, whoever knows anything about this stuff is quite serious.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It's pretty remarkable that the circular firing squad in #KS04 tonight is being convened by the party that over performed by 20 points
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/851982885292830722


@Ted Bessell: Sure but if estes's campaign is non-existent, so is the national support of the DNC, while the RNC used the big guns in the last days.

[ApatheticAustrian]

In #KS04, the Dem vote was 68% of their vote in the district last year. The GOP vote was just 38% of last year’s total. Good enough to win.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/852162872528338945


Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852138509355933697

[ApatheticAustrian]

the gun thingie is dead in the US anyway, so especially rural dems should be allowed to bury it for good and national dems only use it if it can be used to DO something and not only talking about it.

[ApatheticAustrian]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

Well, it's a majority made up of like 95% support in NYC and 20% support or less in places like NY-21 and KS-3. It's not a majority conducive to winning a large house majority in the foreseeable future.

you are absolutely effing correct and since this topic is much easier for me to swallow than abortions and seems to be even more polarizing, i kind of agree with what you have proposed.

it's just mind-biggling for an middle-european, to say the least, that it's a winning strategy.