New poll hype thread

[dspNY]

Clinton +6
Toomey +2

is my prediction.

If anyone else knows of any future poll releases for today or this week, post it here.

We'll get a WV poll on Friday, apparently.

I think this is pretty close to right

[dspNY]

Pennsylvania: Clinton +6, McGinty +1
North Carolina: Tie, Burr +3

[dspNY]

PPP is putting out a poll tomorrow? If so, this is what I'd expect

Clinton +2
Rubio +5

[dspNY]

PPP's VA poll is coming out tomorrow, and is a 7-8 on the Dem happiness scale.

After the news we've been hearing lately, it's probably Clinton +9 to +11 because that's where most of the legit polling for Virginia had it after the conventions

[dspNY]

PPP is polling North Carolina, and you can suggest questions here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/north-carolina-question-suggestions.html

Their last three NC polls (earliest to latest) were Tie, C+2, C+1.  I'll predict C+2 again.

I think they'll find a tie

[dspNY]

The NYT in conjunction with Siena will publish a Florida poll tomorrow

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/777611979808710656

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/19/upshot/introducing-the-new-york-times-upshot-siena-college-poll.html?_r=0

[dspNY]

Probably Clinton +3

For the Marquette poll next week or for the NYT/Siena Florida poll? Keep in mind the NYT published an article about Clinton struggling in FL yesterday so they might be teasing their poll through that article

[dspNY]

I'll guess Clinton +1 in FL, +9 in the iCitizen WI poll, and +7 in the Marquette poll. I'm not sure if the other pollsters are doing the Senate races as well, but I'll guess Marquette finds Feingold up 8.

I'm not as optimistic

FL: Trump +3
WI/Marquette: Clinton +5
WI/iCitizen: Who knows, probably Clinton +5-6

[dspNY]

The Upshot will publish a similar poll of NC later this week so it will be interesting to see how they compare with PPP

[dspNY]

Elon Poll ‏@elonpoll  14h14 hours ago
We'll be releasing numbers around 10am tomorrowtoday: Governor, Senate + #HB2. Presidential numbers on Tuesday morning

In case you havent had enough NC polls

Did they release those numbers yet?

Yes, Ross +1, McCrory +3, HB2 disapprove 60/40

Ross leading, but McCrory winning? What?

Elon's likely voter screen is all messed up. It reads:

"In order for a respondent to qualify as a likely voter, they had to say they planned to vote in November, that they were absolutely certain they planned to vote and that they knew the precinct where they would vote."

In a state like North Carolina with lots of new transplants from other states, this removes a lot of certain voters from urban and suburban areas.

We could see something like Trump +5 LV, Clinton +5 RV with that kind of screen

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/778297430982987776
Guessing tie to Clinton +2 in NC.

Nope, my guess is Trump +1 or Tie, and Cooper +6

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/778282894942961664

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yay new NV and IA polls from Monmouth!

My guess is Clinton +3 in NV and Trump +3 in Iowa

[dspNY]

New NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll at 5pm.

Fox is also releasing state polls in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio at 6pm.

Interesting issue breakdown from the NBC/WSJ poll re: concerns voters have about the candidates

Trump's comments and language about women, immigrants and Muslims: 69%
Trump not having the temperament to be commander in chief: 66%
Clinton's email server: 64%
Clinton's foreign policy judgment in the Middle East: 62%
Trump's Putin praise: 59%
Trump not releasing his taxes: 52%
Clinton's deplorables comment: 45%
Clinton's heath: 44%

Based on that issue breakdown I would guess Clinton +5 LV, Clinton +7 RV

As for the Fox state polls, I don't think Clinton will lead any of them. My best guesses:

Nevada: Tie
North Carolina: Trump +3
Ohio: Trump +5 (to keep the Clinton is doomed in the rust belt narrative going).

If Clinton does better I will be pleasantly surprised

[dspNY]

Was there a Pew survey released today? 538 had a (heavily adjusted) one showing C+7 appearing in the national poll updates

I saw that...Nate Silver adjusting a Pew poll 4 points to the Republicans is a crooked move on his part because Pew is almost unerring (at most it is D+1)

[dspNY]

7 on Dem happiness scale...nice!

PA: Clinton +7
CO: Clinton +8
VA: Clinton +10
NC: Clinton +2
FL: Tie

PPP is indicating a significant shift in the battlegrounds post debate

[dspNY]

Clinton +7 is my guess.

+7 to +10 IMO. Remember Trump goes really crazy when his polls are bad. Katy Tur (NBC) says trump pays more attention to polls than anything else

[dspNY]

In addition: Q-Poll today. Looks like FL, NC, PA, OH

"Tim Malloy & Peter Brown to discuss #Florida #NorthCarolina #Ohio #Pennsylvania #SwingState Poll on the 2016 presidential race, TODAY 3pm"

Monmouth:
CO C+8

Q-Poll
FL C+2
NC C+2
PA C+7
OH Tied.

Monmouth Colorado: Clinton +8, Bennett +15

Q-polls:

PA: Clinton +9
NC: Clinton +4
FL: Clinton +3
OH: Trump +1

[dspNY]

Q-Poll for Senate projections:

PA: McGinty +2
FL: Rubio +6
OH: Portman +12
NC: Burr +1

[dspNY]

TN-Vanderbilt: Trump +8 before debate/Trump +4 post debate

Quinnipiac:

FL: Clinton +4, Rubio +5
OH: Clinton +1, Portman +13
PA: Clinton +8, Tie
NC: Clinton +3, Burr +2, Cooper +4

CO-Monmouth: Clinton +10/Bennet +12

#BattlegroundTennessee

[dspNY]

PPP is doing a Twitter poll for their next state: It'll be MI, NH, OH, or WI.

It has to be Ohio

[dspNY]

Monmouth PA prediction

Clinton +7
McGinty +2

[dspNY]

PPP is releasing their Ohio poll tonight or tomorrow, seemingly tonight. They say it's a +5 or +6 on the happiness scale but would have been an +8 or +9 11 days ago, which presumably would have been people thinking Trump +5

So Clinton likely up 1 to 3?

I would guess Clinton +1 with the happiness scale at a 6. They probably had a Clinton +5 day in there somewhere.

From my perspective any Clinton lead would register as an 8 on the personal Dem happiness scale

[dspNY]

OH: Clinton +3, Portman +15
PA: Clinton +10, McGinty +2
WI: Clinton +8, Feingold +15

[dspNY]

NBC will release full Florida and Pennsylvania polls at 9 AM Eastern time, presumably on Meet the Press

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/785076317746139136

[dspNY]

NBC will release full Florida and Pennsylvania polls at 9 AM Eastern time, presumably on Meet the Press

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/785076317746139136

Before anyone gets too exited- it's WAY too early to gauge the public response.

Mark Murray said the polls were completed before Friday so there is no impact of the hot mic tape in these numbers