2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[VAR]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

If Rubio only tied statewide, I guarantee you that he would have lost this district.

Narrowly, maybe. But not by 8 points. Or even 3 points.

[DaWN]

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

Then why the hell are you trying to use Rubio's performance in this district in 2016 to justify why its competitive now?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1289216123926450176

[Lognog]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

Hispanic turnout, especially young hispanic turnout, was higher in 2016. Hispanics aren't trending Republican. They're just not turning out consistently. Now that it's 2020 I think you'll see way more young hispanic turnout and thus hispanics """trending""" democratic

[n1240]

Lake Research Partners, CA-04

McClintock (R) 45
Kennedy (D) 42

July 22-25, 650 LV

Trump+15 in 2016 (Trump leads by 1 in this poll)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm assuming that's an internal poll?

McClintock won 54-46 in 2018. I'm expecting a similar result, more or less.

Still, perhaps another sign that 2020 is looking much more like 2018 than 2016.

I don't expect it to flip, but I'd be interested to see a poll of CA-22 & Devin Nunes

[VAR]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

[ON Progressive]

https://www.nola.com/opinions/stephanie_grace/article_45e2fc50-d384-11ea-b5bc-a3de8931f94d.html

The poll of 600 registered voters, conducted in early July by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates for Secure Democracy and published by LaPolitics.com, gives a generic Republican candidate 47% and a nameless Democrat 43%.

R+4 in Louisiana is a disaster for the GOP, obviously.

[LimoLiberal]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

[Roll Roons]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

[lfromnj]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

See if the gop nominated the women it would be proof of racism
Catch 22

[LimoLiberal]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

You and Kevin McCarthy would be good friends (just teasing)

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1286333860943482885

[LimoLiberal]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

See if the gop nominated the women it would be proof of racism
Catch 22

Well, I feel like we've been hearing since January 2019 about the Great Republican Women comeback orchestrated by Elise Stefanik.

The big wins for Republican women have consisted of a conspiracy-adjacent gun nut (possibly allowing the Democrat to win), an actually conspiratorial gun nut (we'll see if she survives the runoff), and Lisa Scheller. Basically any other Republican woman in a competitive primary against men (in competitive or non-competitive seats) has tanked.

The Texas lady against Pete Sessions, ME-02, VA-07, UT-04, NY-19, GA-07, IL-14, NC-11 (Trump endorsed!). The GOP electorate is just not comfortable with women candidates.

Of course, Republicans have or will have nominated viable women candidates in competitive seats like SC-01, OK-05, NY-11, NY-22, CA-39, CA-48, IA-01, IA-02. But all of those candidates faced only nominal opposition or had their main opponents also be women. 

With Susan Brooks retiring (and IN-05 a Tossup), and Ann Wagner in grave danger, Republicans could lose two more of their ranks, with no guarantee to add more besides Mary Miller in IL-15.

[Landslide Lyndon]

MI-10 - Republican primary
WPAi/Club for Growth/Hernandez internal

Hernandez 33% (+6)
McClain 27% (-5)
Slocum 10% (-2)
Undecided 30% (+1)

Favorables:
Hernandez 45/7
McClain 37/8
Slocum 17/4

https://cdn.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CfGPAC_MI_CD10_PollingMemo.pdf

Another failure to nominate a woman in a safely Republican seat.

Though Hernandez is Hispanic. That has to count for something, especially since this seat is over 90% white.

See if the gop nominated the women it would be proof of racism
Catch 22

We are all aware that Republicans are equal opportunity bigots.

[VAR]

IA-02
Harper Polling/Miller-Meeks internal

Hart 41%
Miller-Meeks 41%

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/poll-miller-meeks-rita-hart-iowa-2nd-district-race-20200802

[Pollster]

With Susan Brooks retiring (and IN-05 a Tossup), and Ann Wagner in grave danger, Republicans could lose two more of their ranks, with no guarantee to add more besides Mary Miller in IL-15.

Martha Roby is also retiring and will be replaced by a man, Jaime Herrera Beutler is also in danger and Elise Stefanik and Cathy McMorris Rodgers could be as well on a particularly bad night.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1290301880900476928

Why did obama endorse Adrienne bell in tx 14th it's a trump +20 district in Galveston and Beuamount so I dont even think it's really trending left. Was she a staffer ?

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1290301880900476928

Why did obama endorse Adrienne bell in tx 14th it's a trump +20 district in Galveston and Beuamount so I dont even think it's really trending left. Was she a staffer ?

Not sure. The thing is, I'm not sure how much weight Obama's endorsement will actually have in a lot of these races, especially since he endorsed dozens of candidates at once. For instance, in 2008, he did a radio ad for Dan Seals in IL-10, which is a district where Obama won with 61% of the vote. And Seals still lost by 6 points to Mark Kirk!

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1290301880900476928

Why did obama endorse Adrienne bell in tx 14th it's a trump +20 district in Galveston and Beuamount so I dont even think it's really trending left. Was she a staffer ?

Not sure. The thing is, I'm not sure how much weight Obama's endorsement will actually have in a lot of these races, especially since he endorsed dozens of candidates at once. For instance, in 2008, he did a radio ad for Dan Seals in IL-10, which is a district where Obama won with 61% of the vote. And Seals still lost by 6 points to Mark Kirk!

Well the endorsement merely gets fundraising pointed and I can't believe you mixed up Kirk and Dold !

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1290301880900476928

Why did obama endorse Adrienne bell in tx 14th it's a trump +20 district in Galveston and Beuamount so I dont even think it's really trending left. Was she a staffer ?

Not sure. The thing is, I'm not sure how much weight Obama's endorsement will actually have in a lot of these races, especially since he endorsed dozens of candidates at once. For instance, in 2008, he did a radio ad for Dan Seals in IL-10, which is a district where Obama won with 61% of the vote. And Seals still lost by 6 points to Mark Kirk!

Well the endorsement merely gets fundraising pointed and I can't believe you mixed up Kirk and Dold !

Fair enough. And I am one of the last people in the world who will get those two mixed up lmao, given my strong admiration for both. Kirk was in fact running for re-election in 2008. Seals tried for a third time in 2010 and lost to Dold when the seat opened up.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1290338671514857472?s=20

[wbrocks67]

There's a LOT that is questionable about that poll, plus it's Scott Rasmussen so...

[Person Man]

Not to mention the candidate "IDK" is competitive.

[Pollster]

There's a LOT that is questionable about that poll, plus it's Scott Rasmussen so...

Scott Rasmussen is a good pollster, Rasmussen Reports (with which he is no longer affiliated) is not.

[wbrocks67]

There's a LOT that is questionable about that poll, plus it's Scott Rasmussen so...

Scott Rasmussen is a good pollster, Rasmussen Reports (with which he is no longer affiliated) is not.

is RMG really that good? the poll had 25% undecided, which is kind of a ridiculous #. Not to mention, his unknown challenger has a better approval rating than McAdams does?

This guy has like $90k CoH compared to McAdams. And yet 2/3 of the electorate has an opinion?