GOP house gains in 2012?

[jimrtex]

I don't that the DOJ can demand more minority-majority districts that are erose, and not dictated by adjacent communities of interest. So I don't see a lot more being demanded myself. But the law in this area is tough to get a handle on. Muon2 keeps reminding me of that, the bastard - he knows just too damn much! 

I don't think that they can force additional seats under preclearance under Section 5, which is to ensure that there is not retrogression of voting rights.  Perhaps they can require maintenance of proportionality when a state is gaining seats.

What the Supreme Court ruled was that the Austin-McAllen district didn't count as a VRA district, since it was just an attempt to categorize persons by race.  If that district had counted, then it didn't matter what had been done in TX-23.  It appears that the district court extended that and avoided drawing districts linking the border to San Antonio, and this could be considered a precedent in other places.

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil, you linked article suggests that the Pubbies will not have free reign to gerrymander the sh*t out of PA. Was this procedure in play in 2001?  I mean, the lines are drawn by a committee of 5, with the swing vote supposedly impartial. So just how would the GOP get their fantasy map even on the table to vote upon?

CC:  Muon2

Yeah, the committee is supposed to be impartial. As weird as this may sound, even with the Democratic members and an Independent, the GOP still gets what they want. In fact, this was in place in 2001 and all of the Democratic members of the committee signed off on the plan!

Personally, I wish we had a totally independent body control this to make sure it is fair.

Wow, we agree on something... Or not?  Sure, I'd love for another "Johnnymander".  Last time you guys spread yourselves too thin and had some moves that cost you like the PA-8 excursions into Montco and NE Philly.  I could see the GOP getting overzealous in the Southeast and thinking they can tack on D areas of PA-6 onto PA-7/16/17 and move more liberal Delco areas to PA-1/2 then lose all PA-6/7/16/17 anyways.  Then get cute with PA 8/15 by tacking on more R areas of PA-15 to PA-8 and lose both anyway in a wave.  I could see this funny scenario play out to some extent eventually.  Or just call a truce and have bi-partisan redistricting.  Short run I could see the GOP making out, but like last decade could get bitten hard again.  And remember, the next cycle of 2016-2024 likely means a Dem Governor and possible control.