PA-PPP: Obama Romney tied at 44%

[krazen1211]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/obama-weak-in-pennsylvania.html

Against everyone but Romney, the president leads by
almost as much as if not more than his margin over McCain, topping Michele Bachmann,
50-43; Tim Pawlenty, 47-39; Santorum, 50-40 (up from 45-43); Herman Cain, 49-37; and
Palin, 53-39 (50-39).




Democrats oversampled as  usual, and plenty more undecided Republicans than Democrats. Looking good.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Crappy sample. Remember that Democrats have a large registration advantage in Pennsylvania.

[Bull Moose Base]

How long until the media notices polls show that Bachmann has nothing close to the electability problem Palin has?

[krazen1211]

Crappy sample. Remember that Democrats have a large registration advantage in Pennsylvania.

Of course they do. Such however, is not actually reflected on election day. Their 50% Democrat actually matches well with registration.

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Romney:

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled) 
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)

[DrScholl]

PPP does not use a sample and as always, the partisan breakdown doesn't have a thing to do with the topline. If Romney is only pulling one point better than Bachmann, then he's got big problems. Those undecideds are not all going to break for him.

[CatoMinor]

Crappy sample. Remember that Democrats have a large registration advantage in Pennsylvania.

They do in Oklahoma and Kentucky as well...

[Tender Branson]

Comparing partisan samples of polls conducted one and a half year before an election with exit polls of the previous elections is alluring (I did it myself a lot of times in the past), but it is hardly worth the effort.

After all, we are comparing 2 polls with each other, each of them has a margin of error of about 5% and especially the sub-groups of the sample like Democrats, Independents, Republicans have MoE of more than 6%.

That means that if the 2008 Exit Poll for PA showed a 44-36-18 spread for the Democrats, it could really be 50-30-18 or so.

Another argument could be that there are more people out there 1 1/2 year ahead of the elections who call themselves Independents or who are registered as such. But on election day, after a heated and polarized campaign they are more likely to check the box of the "Democratic" or "Republican" candidate they just voted for when they are filling out the exit poll sheet.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Bachmann comes out better than every pub except Willard who got 1 point more than her? 

[exopolitician]

Obama always seemed to underperfrom in PA polls.

[xavier110]

Obama always seemed to underperfrom in PA polls.

Yeah, some polls were showing a tight race even by the end of the 08 campaign. I mean, McCain continued to bother campaigning there. Plus, this is a state that hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election in about 25 years. Even Dukakis nearly won PA.

I do believe NH is close, however.

[DS0816]

Obama always seemed to underperfrom in PA polls.

Yeah, some polls were showing a tight race even by the end of the 08 campaign. I mean, McCain continued to bother campaigning there. Plus, this is a state that hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election in about 25 years. Even Dukakis nearly won PA.

I do believe NH is close, however.

Since 1988, when George Bush underperformed in the Keystone State by 2.31% (compared nationally to 7.73%). Also, I don't buy into New Hampshire being close. It carried for Obama at 9.61%. If that state is close, on Election Day 2012, it's because the Republcans picked up the White House four years after the Democrats did likewise.

[Holmes]

lol why is krazen so confident? A lot of countries have campaigns that only last four or six weeks. A poll sixteen months ahead is as useless in those countries as it is in the US.

[krazen1211]

lol why is krazen so confident? A lot of countries have campaigns that only last four or six weeks. A poll sixteen months ahead is as useless in those countries as it is in the US.

I'm not confident at all; at least not in relation to others here. I believe Romney is more likely to lose overall than win.

[Devils30]

I know no one likes romney but hes a far better bet than that lunatic bachmann

[NVGonzalez]

How long until the media notices polls show that Bachmann has nothing close to the electability problem Palin has?

When she becomes the nominee.

[Gustaf]

I think we should keep in mind how much media narrative means this far out. So far Bachmann isn't "crazy right-winger who can't get elected" to most people (unlike, say, Palin). She's that semi-attractive woman who did well in the debate. She's sort of like Palin was during the early stages of the 2008 campaign.

I totally buy Bachmann doing well in polls now, but I'm not so sure it will hold against Obama once the campaign rolls around.