2012 Prediction (user search)
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Author Topic: 2012 Prediction  (Read 26437 times)
Jacobtm
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Posts: 3,216


« on: December 23, 2008, 12:56:37 PM »
« edited: December 23, 2008, 01:16:23 PM by Jacobtm »

South Carolina will be almost as winnable for Obama as Georgia.

Obama % of the vote in McCain states, from highest:

MO: 49.25
MT: 47.17
GA: 46.90
AZ: 44.91
SC: 44.90

At various points throughout the campaign, there were suggestions that Obama might win North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska (before Palin), West Virginia, and of course, MO, MT, GA and AZ.

While many thought that an Obama win in North Dakota was just Democratic day-dreaming, most would've probably agreed that Obama would win North Dakota long before South Carolina

But the fact is that while Obama and Democrats as a whole dedicated practically no resources to South Carolina, it turned out to be the fifth closest state that they lost. If there had been an important Senate race there, and the Obama campaign had dedicated more money to voter-registration, ads and GOTV, the results in S.C. could easily be brought to approximate those in Georgia.

So if Obama has a chance to win Georgia in '12, then there's no reason that South Carolina couldn't be right behind.
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